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Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday! I'll bring you our famous NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with expert research and picks for cash games and GPPs each week. Here are a few notes about the sheet.
- Green means GO (good for the player), while red reflects a poor rating/matchup. The more green, the better...
- CASH CORE pieces are highlighted with BRIGHT GREEN highlighter on the chart for extra emphasis.
- The "fantasy points allowed rank" reflects how a player's opponent ranked in fantasy points allowed to their specific position. The lower the number, the better the matchup.
- Passing and Rushing game matchups are again DVOA ratings as I regained access to that metric and find it to be super helpful.
- A play labeled "cash" is a higher-owned play recommended for cash games. A "strong" play is playable in all formats. "Slate-breakers" are some of my favorite GPP targets for upside or reduced ownership.
- Vegas and risk columns will all be updated during the week to reflect injury info, weather info, and the most recent Vegas info.
Premium NFL DFS Cheat Sheet - Super Bowl Sunday
Philadelphia (+1.5) vs. Kansas City (48.5 point total)
When the Eagles have the ball...(DVOA ranks in parentheses)
PHILLY RUN OFFENSE (6) vs. KC RUN DEFENSE (9)
PHILLY PASS OFFENSE (14) vs. KC PASS DEFENSE (17)
The Eagles' offense statistically has been good, but not great this season. However, you could argue that they've only had all their weapons healthy for a handful of games. And last week it was the Commanders who got to experience the wrath of this "fully operational battle station" (any time I can get a Star Wars reference in there, I am going to do it).
Yes, the Birds dropped 55 points on Washington last week in a route of the Commanders. Barkley set the tone early with a long run on the first play, but it was Jalen Hurts who kept the chains moving with his arms and his legs and to me, he is the key to this Eagles offense and a potential victory in the Super Bowl.
Hurts will have to find success in the passing game if the Eagles expect to be able to run the football. They have bullied opponents with Barkley on early downs, but the KC defense is stout against the run and will load up to stop Barkley.
I know some will point to the Bills running the ball effectively last week, which they did, but ultimately the Chiefs stopped them when they needed to and the Bills relied on the dual-nature threat of Josh Allen in big spots. Jalen Hurts is a much craftier runner, though he won't bulldoze anyone like Allen will.
I'd much rather pick on the Chiefs passing defense, which has shown a bend-but-don't-break approach for much of the season. They have a soft underbelly where guys like Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith can do work and Kellen Moore is likely to scheme Hurts some quick throws on short passes to avoid the KC pass rush.
KC invites teams to dink and dunk their way down the field, and the Eagles are more than happy to do it and they are equipped with the playmakers at every position to do it. If the Chiefs do bring blitzes and play man coverage, A.J. Brown has big play potential and we saw him get over the top against them the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl in 2023. So for me, Smith and Goerdert as the cash plays with Brown being a GPP play only and a guy I would pair with Hurts, while the other two could be played independently of Hurts.
I'm not saying to fade Saquon Barkley entirely, but I do think there is an opportunity here to get leverage in these single-game contests by going underweight on him and featuring Hurts and the pass-catchers more in your lineups.
Jake Elliot had some bumpy games but is still an above-average kicker and had eight games with double-digit points. He's viable as well as the Eagles' #2 ranked defense that has been stacking up takeaways this postseason. The Elliot-Eagles D/ST pairing has a positive correlation and is a potentially sneaky stack that not too many players will use.
When the Chiefs have the ball...(DVOA ranks in parentheses)
KC RUN OFFENSE (12) vs. PHILLY RUN DEFENSE (2)
KC PASS OFFENSE (11) vs. PHILLY PASS DEFENSE (2)
Even though I am playing the angle of the Eagles winning this game, we certainly want to get some KC pieces and if you are building multiple lineups, you are going to want to make some builds that are heavier with KC players, too.
We usually play at least one QB in showdown lineups, and I would make sure you have one, if not both, in the majority of your builds.
Mahomes might seem like a secondary play based on his regular season performances, but we saw his ceiling last week and we know that he always shows up big in big games. The offense in KC runs through him and I think the Chiefs will be in a pass-heavy game script throughout this one.
The Chiefs like to run the football, but the Eagles aren't likely to allow them much success on the ground. So we should see Mahomes in a lot of drop-back passing situations early and often. His top target in the second half of the season has been Xavier Worthy, who has elite speed and has begun to show that he's also becoming a solid route-runner. The Chiefs love scheming him the ball and he usually gets a few carries on end-arounds or other gadget run plays.
Travis Kelce will be a popular play for KC and he did have a solid Super Bowl against Philly two years ago. But the Eagles have the nickel backs and linebackers to give Kelce trouble and we've seen this season that the Chiefs are fine with Kelce being a decoy if teams are going to take him away and allow others to be open. I will have some Kelce, but going under the field on him and Barkley is going to ensure that my lineups are different from a lot of those others in the field.
It's a guessing game when it comes to the other KC pass-catchers. JuJu Smith-Schuster popped up again with a solid game in the championship after doing very little down the stretch. DeAndre Hopkins was utilized more often earlier this year than he has been recently, but he's still a stud and could catch a fade in the end zone for a TD.
I like Marquise "Hollywood" Brown probably the second-most of the KC pass catchers. He had three catches last week and is a downfield threat more than Hopkins.
Hunt and Pacheco are both going to handle a few touches at running back, but Hunt is the guy you want if you're chasing a rushing TD. And Perine could be used on third downs or in a two-minute drill situation, so don't sleep on him entirely as a pure punt play.
I like Butker for some exposure as he's a really good kicker who just happened to have struggled a little bit after the injury. I am not using KC's defense too often, but they would be a contrarian play for sure - the Eagles simply haven't turned the ball over much.
Core Plays: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, DeVonta Smith
Secondary Plays: A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, Kareem Hunt, Jake Elliott, Eagles D/ST, Harrison Butker
Long Shots: Noah Gray, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jahan Dotson, Samaje Perine, Chiefs D/ST
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Super Bowl
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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