NFL DFS: First Look of Week 10 - Totals, Salaries, Slates, and more

November 5, 2024

Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 10 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

The NFL season is chugging along and we have more action headed our way this Sunday. We're going ahead of the pack by diving into the data and seeing what direction it will point us in this week.

This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 10. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.

Week 10 Vegas Totals and Team Data

In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 10, we will include some data from last season as well.

You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 10: Main Slate Only

1. 49ers - 27
2. Bills - 26
3. Vikings - 25.5
4. Eagles, Falcons - 24.75
5. Commanders - 24.5

2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game

1. Buccaneers - 29.4
2. Commanders - 29.2
3. Bills - 28.9
4. 49ers - 26.3
5. Vikings - 26.1

2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game

1. Chargers - 12.6
2. Steelers - 14.9
3. Chiefs - 17.6
4. Broncos - 17.9
5. Bears - 18.5

The San Francisco 49ers are the highest-implied total team on Sunday's slate with 27 points. The biggest question mark is if Christian McCaffrey will play and all signs point toward yes. This could bring the 49ers back to being one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.

The Buffalo Bills will be one team to watch during the week with their injury report. They have a few question marks, such as Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. They could go overlooked with the stacked teams that are at the top with a high team total like the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, and Washington Commanders.

Week 10 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the data that we have so far for the 2024 season.

Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses

(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)

1. Tampa Bay (2) vs. San Francisco (14)
2. San Francisco (5) vs. Tampa Bay (30)
3. Atlanta (6) vs. New Orleans (27)
4. Washington (10) vs. Pittsburgh (21)
5. Minnesota (12) vs. Jacksonville (31)

There are a ton of good matchups happening this Sunday, which could spread out the ownership on the 10-game slate. Tampa Bay leads the way (while banged up) but Baker Mayfield continues to put up good passing games.

He will face a much rejuvenated San Francisco team that is most likely getting Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings back. It would be a "catch-up" game script for Mayfield and the Buccaneers' receiving weapons.

Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons face off against the New Orleans Saints but there is a possibility that they are without Drake London. That will be news to monitor throughout the week when injury reports come out.

It's hard to pass up this Falcons offense, however, and if London is out, Darnell Mooney will be a popular option to lock in. The Saints will remain as a "do not play" stack while Alvin Kamara remains a solid one-off play.

🤔 Seen this before… @JalenHurts ➡️@DeVontaSmith_6

📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+pic.twitter.com/sm6sAfIRow

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 4, 2024

Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses

1. Philadelphia (2) vs. Dallas (30)
2. San Francisco (4) vs. Tampa Bay (19)
3. Arizona (7) vs. N.Y. Jets (21)
4. Pittsburgh (8) vs. Washington (28)
5. New Orleans (13) vs. Atlanta (23)

Saquon Barkley is leading the way Sunday for the Philadelphia Eagles with a strong matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles may be without their star wide receiver, A.J. Brown, which would give Barkley an even bigger boost in his dominance. Even if Brown is good to go, you still should fire up the Eagles star running back with no hesitation.

The San Francisco 49ers should also be welcoming back Christian McCaffrey. While he's hard to avoid, you should still be cautious with your ownership of him. Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo will most likely play reasonable snaps to make sure McCaffrey can get settled back in. The coaching staff will most likely want to avoid overworking him with a tight division like the NFC West.

Ray Davis!!! pic.twitter.com/ncKWlHN2sh

— Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) November 3, 2024

2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Jacksonville (Darnold), Tampa Bay (Purdy), Dallas (Hurts), Atlanta (Carr), Indianapolis (Allen)

RB - Buffalo (Taylor), Jacksonville (Jones), Dallas (Barkley), New England (Swift), Tampa Bay (McCaffrey/Mason)

WR - Minnesota (Thomas Jr.), Jacksonville (Jefferson), Tampa Bay (Samuel Sr.), Atlanta (Wilson Jr.), Arizona (Wilson/Adams)

TE - Indianapolis (Kincaid), Tampa Bay (Kittle), Jacksonville (Hockenson), L.A. Chargers (Okonkwo), Chicago (Henry)

DEF - NE (CHI), TEN (LAC), DAL (PHI), MIN (JAX), NYJ (ARI)

In no shocking way, the Minnesota Vikings pop in every category as they'll be facing off versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Stacking Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, and Justin Jefferson is a positive route to go. You could even sprinkle in T.J. Hockenson. Either way you go, the Vikings offense will find success.

The Buffalo Bills could be a sneaky stack but the injuries to Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman are one to monitor. If both players seem to be good to go for Sunday, I would look at stacking Josh Allen with James Cook and either Cooper or Coleman. Now, Dalton Kincaid does make an appearance on the list, but he is still one player to be cautious with while there are better tight-end options on the slate like Hockenson and George Kittle.

Week 10 DFS Salary Analysis

If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.

And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters, especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.

To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.

FanDuel Values (FD vs. DK)

1. Sam Darnold ($7.8K vs. $6.2K)
2. Breece Hall ($8.2K vs. $7.6K)
3. George Pickens ($7K vs. $6.8K)
4. DJ Moore ($6.5K vs. $6.3K)
5. Cade Otton ($6.4K vs. $5.5K)

DraftKings Values (DK vs. FD)

1. Aaron Jones ($6.7K vs. $7.9K)
2. DeVonta Smith ($7.8K vs. $8.5K)
3. Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6.9K vs. $8.3K)
4. Darnell Mooney ($6.5K vs. $7.5K)
5. Jordan Addison ($5.3K vs. $6.6K)

Cheap Stacks (DK vs. FD)

There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).

1. Darnold - Addison ($11.5K vs. $14.4K)
2. Purdy - Samuel ($13.4K vs. $16.4K)
3. Cousins - Mooney ($13.2K vs. $14.9K)
4. Wilson - Pickens ($12.7K vs. $14.5K)
5. Mayfield - Otton ($11.9K vs. $14.6K)
6. Nix - Sutton ($11.6K vs. $13.6K)

Alright, that's it for Week 10 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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