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Craig Rondinone takes a look at five players considered sleepers in fantasy football for 2024 who are overvalued. He analyzes why these players could be fantasy busts.
Fantasy football managers hang their helmets on finding sleepers -- and sometimes put too much stock in them.
Fantasy footballers talk more about sleepers in August than beach lovers talk about suntan lotion. Forget about which running backs will be workhorses and which will be part of committees. Forget about J.J. McCarthy’s knee surgery or Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors. When fantasy drafts are on the horizon, more sleeper lists are strewn across the internet than pictures of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.
Sometimes it's best to stay away from certain sleepers, though. You might waste middle-to-late-round picks on guys you have pegged for 1,000-yard years or double-digit touchdowns, yet all they bring you is grief and a sixth-place finish in the standings. So which sleepers will stay asleep this season? Here is my take.
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Five Fantasy Football Sleepers Who Will Stay Asleep in 2024
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (QB)
You have all heard by now that the aforementioned McCarthy is done for the season with a knee injury. That means Darnold has won the starting signal-caller job in Minnesota by default. It sounds like Sammy has one of the best situations a quarterback could ever have.
Darnold has the spectacular duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as his receivers, tight end T.J. Hockenson should return early in the season from his torn ACL, and head honcho Kevin O’Connell will be guiding him, a quarterback-friendly coach who was instrumental in Kirk Cousins having the best year of his career in 2023 until Cousins suffered a season-ending injury.
Darnold is a serviceable quarterback. He could probably get a team to the playoffs if his supporting cast was stacked. This is a guy with a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 63:56. He is a short-passing, ball-control kind of quarterback, not one who will be airing out 50-yard TD tosses to Jefferson and Addison regularly.
Justin Jefferson after one quarter with Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/PGexBCn08t
— ChiefsJayhawksRoyals (@CJR16255) August 14, 2024
Turnover-prone backup Nick Mullens had a couple of decent fantasy weeks when he ran the offense in Cousins’ absence last year, and I am sure Darnold could, too. The chances Darnold stays under center all season long between his spotty play and his lack of durability are slim.
Draft him as your QB2 or QB3 if you want. Just do not expect him to be in that role for you at the season’s end.
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (RB)
UPDATE: Mitchell has been placed on IR with a hamstring injury, and he will miss the 2024 season.
A lot of fantasy football people like Mitchell as a late-round sleeper because they assume oft-injured Christian McCaffrey is due for a pulled hamstring or sprained shoulder that will cost him multiple games after a relatively healthy 2023 campaign.
Mitchell would then slot in as the 49ers’ main runner and ground-and-pound his way to 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has scored 10 touchdowns in 27 career contests and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry in the NFL.
The problem is that Mitchell is almost as injury-prone as McCaffrey is. It feels like every time Mitchell has the opportunity to be San Fran’s top tailback, he injures a knee or pulls a muscle and then the 49ers have to dig deep for their RB3 or RB4 to shoulder the load. Mitchell is already hurt this preseason thanks to a hamstring injury that has cost him some time.
While Mitchell is the right insurance policy for fantasy managers to draft if they already have McCaffrey in the fold, they might as well draft No. 3 RB Jordan Mason on their roster, too. The guy has had 83 rushing attempts the past two seasons and averaged 5.6 YPC on them.
Meanwhile, Mitchell missed more games (18) than he suited up for (16) over that same span. Mitchell runs harder than his body will allow, and that makes him a risky sleeper.
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills (WR)
We know what Buffalo did in the offseason. The receiving corps was purged as Stefon Diggs was traded and Gabe Davis signed with Jacksonville. Instead of spending millions on a top-flight receiver, the Bills filled the roster holes by drafting a couple of youngsters and signing retreads like Samuel.
Samuel has the best opportunity of his career to shine. He has Josh Allen as his QB, and he is part of a subpar, unproven receiving group that has no true WR1 or WR2.
Fantasy managers know how Samuel is. Inconsistent, injury-prone, and always unable to be the fantasy force that everyone thought he would be when he entered the NFL. In seven seasons, Samuel only topped 700 receiving yards once and has averaged just four TDs per year.
Samuel has the wrinkle that he can be used as a runner out of the backfield, but all he did last year was rush for 39 yards. Khalil Shakir knows the offense and Allen better than Samuel. Keon Coleman was drafted in the second round this April and has more upside than Samuel. Tight end Dalton Kincaid will probably be Allen’s top target when all is said and done, anyway.
I can see Samuel getting 600-750 yards and 4-5 touchdowns, but not enough to make him a great sleeper.
Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders (TE)
The Logan Thomas era is over in Washington, and fantasy managers are not sad to see it end. Washington selected Sinnott in the second round of the NFL Draft this April to be its tight end of the future.
The Commanders also signed veteran Zach Ertz to show Sinnott the ropes, and there is probably no better tight-end teacher to learn from. Just look at how Arizona’s Trey McBride blossomed last season while following Ertz’s footsteps.
Sinnott has all the talent in the world. He has more tools than Home Depot has in Aisle 14. Rookie tight ends are never known as premium point producers, though. Detroit’s Sam LaPorta was an anomaly last year. Besides LaPorta and Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid, no other first-year tight end had 500 receiving yards. In 2022, no rookie TE topped the 500-yard mark.
Sinnott is a premium pick in dynasty leagues where patient fantasy managers can stash him on the tail end of their rosters and reap the fantasy rewards in 2025 and beyond when Sinnott becomes the player everyone thinks he will be.
Ertz will likely be too involved in the offense for Sinnott to get off to a great start in September and October, however, which will stunt his fantasy value. He could have some value later in the season if Washington falters and phases Ertz out, but Sinnott is a sleeper who fantasy managers can probably sleep on until 2025.
Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers (WR)
When Green Bay had its scintillating late-season run where Jordan Love was throwing passes better than Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre ever did for the Packers, Wicks was one of the many bright spots among the team’s up-and-coming corps of receivers.
The former fifth-round pick had 39 receptions for 581 yards and four touchdowns during his surprising rookie campaign. Wicks also scored a TD in a Wild Card win against the Dallas Cowboys.
Word on the street is that Wicks is thought of as a sleeper this season. He has big-play ability, which was on display when he caught a 65-yard touchdown toss this preseason. Wicks also has shown chemistry with Love, especially on passes downfield.
The issue is it is easy to see Wicks being lost in this shuffle of Green Bay’s proficient pass-catchers. There will only be so many targets to go around when Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Bo Melton are all so young and skillful as well.
Throw in that the Packers have two super sophomore tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft and you wonder how Wicks will see more than a couple of passes per game if everyone is healthy.
Wicks did well last year in part because both Watson and Musgrave missed major time due to injuries. If everyone stays injury-free this year, Wicks might be relegated to a role as a home-run threat who only appears in certain situations and four-WR packages.
Wicks will not have the target total that can make him a fantasy favorite every week. Feel free to use him in DFS contests, but otherwise, he should not be counted on as a sleeper in standard fantasy leagues.
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