RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We have a massive 15-game slate tonight to end the week. As always, make sure you keep an eye on injury reports, as teams will rest players with a few games left in the regular season.
Last night, I split my two picks. The Portland Trail Blazers covered their 4.5-point first-quarter spread, while the Kings failed to win the first half.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, April 12. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Indiana Pacers (+2.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (233.5 total)
I'm going to start with the game that means the most on the slate tonight. These two teams are battling for Eastern Conference playoff positioning and I think both should be ready to go. Indiana comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, while Cleveland won its last contest at home against the Grizzlies on Wednesday.
I really like the Cavs in this home spot. Cleveland is only 18-20-1 ATS at home this season but it is 25-14 straight up. The Cavaliers haven't been super strong on offense this month, but it's been right in line with how they've played all season. At home, they have seen those averages go up.
The Cavs are averaging 3.4 more points in home games while also shooting 1.3 percent better on FGAs and making 1.4 more threes per game. That may not sound like much, but Cleveland only has a 2.5-point differential this season, so every point counts.
There are two players I'm looking at for Cleveland to have big games. Indiana has not been good at defending shooting guards or power forwards this season. This is a favorable matchup for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Mitchell has only played one of three games against Indiana this season but he dropped 38 points on November 3 in a 121-116 road loss. Evan Mobley has averaged 23.5 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists in two appearances against the Pacers this season. Sixth man Caris LeVert had 23 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds in a 108-103 victory over the Pacers on March 18.
On defense, the Cavs are holding opponents to the sixth-fewest points, seventh-fewest FGAs, and seventh-fewest three-pointers.
A quick 60 second recap with the sights and sounds from our midweek dub! ⏱️ #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/3o363Hbpie
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 11, 2024
The Pick: Cavaliers ML (-135 DraftKings)
Toronto Raptors (+14.5) at Miami Heat (218.5 total)
I got burned by the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night when I took the Nets to cover the 9.5-point spread against them. Toronto was covering the entire game and it was just a bad pick by me. The Raptors have a ton of questionable guys, so this line could shift and I will change it accordingly.
I'm taking Miami in the first half here. Toronto has been on a nice run, going 4-1 ATS in its last five. I've been waiting for the bubble to burst and I hope it's here. The Heat need this game as they are hoping to catch the Sixers for the seventh seed. Miami is 43-35-2 ATS in the opening two quarters of games this season. Its road record (23-16-2) is better than its home record (20-19) but I like that it still has a winning record at home.
The Heat are only 17th in first-half offensive rating but they make up for it by being sixth in defense. Miami's 5.2 net rating is 11th among home teams this season.
Toronto is averaging 56.2 points in its last five games and it isn't shooting good percentages. Miami is not an offensive juggernaut but I'll take the Heat to figure it out over who the Raptors are playing.
Jimmy Butler and Co. do get after it on the defensive side of the ball. In the first half at home, Miami is limiting opponents to 54.3 points, the fourth-fewest FGAs, and the eighth-lowest three-point percentage. Maybe Toronto defeats me again, but this is an important spot for the Heat and I think they'll get off to a good start. Miami is looking to bounce back from a nationally televised home loss against the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.
4 straight triples from our squad to start the 4th 🙌
We're within 8. You still with us, #HEATNation? pic.twitter.com/nGkUHIPA7D
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) April 11, 2024
The Pick: Heat First Half -7.5 (-120 PointsBet)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Phoenix Suns (-5.5) at Sacramento Kings (225.5 total)
With the Kings playing against the physical New Orleans Pelicans last night, I'm going to fade their defense to start this game. Phoenix had the night off and should come into this critical game fresh.
The Kings are giving up over 29 first-quarter points this season. They are in the bottom eight in three-pointers allowed and opponents are hitting over 42 percent of their chances from three.
The Suns haven't had the best start to their last two games. Phoenix won the opening quarter 28-27 in L.A. against the Clippers on Wednesday night. The Suns didn't cover the quarter and on Tuesday, they started down 37-10 after 12 minutes. Before those Clippers games, this team won four straight opening quarters with a +51 point differential.
I'm looking for that Suns team to show up tonight. Phoenix is 20-18-1 ATS in the first quarter on the road this season. It is averaging the fourth-most points while also being in the top 10 in field-goal and three-point percentage. This month, Devin Booker is averaging 11.5 first-quarter points. Only Nikola Jokic is averaging more points among players to play at least two games.
Book Boom 💥
16 points to start 1Q! pic.twitter.com/ROPTHY9eUK
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) April 11, 2024
The Pick: Suns First Quarter -1.5 (-110 Sports Illustrated Sportsbook)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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