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Prepare for lift-off, RotoBallers! It’s the most wonderful time of the year for fantasy baseball managers. We’re ready to shift gears from the hot stove as the cold winter days warm to spring training and Opening Day baseball, which means it's draft season, and also known as the best season!
These guys got the memo when it comes to lifting off. Defined by MLB.com, “launch angle represents the vertical angle at which the ball leaves a player's bat after being struck.” In layman’s terms, we want our hitters hitting a sweet spot. We don’t want them driving the ball on the ground often, but we don’t want them popping up, either. MLB.com also defines the sweet spot as 8-32 degrees off the bat, which is the happy medium between our favorite kinds off contact: line drives and fly balls.
This tool tends to be more valuable to evaluate pitchers, but it tells us about the tendencies of hitters, too. A high average launch angle indicates a fly ball hitter, and a low average launch angle a ground ball hitter. On average, fly ball hitters generally drive in more runs than ground ball hitters, with power hitters wanting launch angles closer to fly balls and contact hitters seeking more line drives. Let’s explore some launch angle risers and why it may or may not be important for 2024.
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- Cut List - Players To Consider Dropping
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
2022 Launch Angle: 5.2 | 2023 Launch Angle: 13.2
It's been a long time coming for Ke'Bryan Hayes in fantasy circles. After finishing 2020 sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting in just 24 out of 60 possible games, Hayes began 2021 with plenty of hype. The No. 1 Pittsburgh Pirates prospect and MLB's No. 11 prospect fell flat with a .257 batting average, .689 OPS, six home runs, and 38 RBI over 362 at-bats, however. Entering 2022 as a prototypical post-hype sleeper, the 2015 first-round pick hit an equally unimpressive .244 with a .659 OPS, seven homers, and 41 RBI across 505 ABs.
Hayes finally found his identity in the major leagues during 2023 despite a slow start and two bouts with lower-back inflammation. He earned Gold Glove honors and turned in a phenomenal final quarter of play with a .305 BA and .873 OPS, seven home runs, 14 doubles, and 18 RBI through his final 39 outings. The late power surge likely had much to do with Hayes resulting as Statcast's second-ranked player among qualifiers in terms of year-to-year rise in launch angle.
Ke'Bryan Hayes this spring:
.415 BA
3 HR
9 RBINothing but a hitting machine 🔥 pic.twitter.com/vEeUMcwmBm
— The Bucco Beat (@TheBuccoBeat) March 21, 2024
That should only reinforce Hayes' red-hot start this spring; he's hitting .405 (17-for-42) with three homers, three two-baggers, and nine RBI in 15 contests. With Pittsburgh relying on him from the three-hole of its lineup, the 27-year-old could be in for a leap during his third full year in the big leagues. Although Hayes' sprint speed sat below an average level, his combination of speed and base-running value mirrored that of Kyle Tucker, who stole 30 bags last year. There's legitimate five-category upside here.
Isaac Paredes: 1B, 2B, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
2022: 15.8 | 2023: 22.2
Isaac Paredes is one of fantasy's scariest regression candidates entering 2024. I beat the sell-high drum all year long in 2023, but he simply never slowed down despite gloomy underlying metrics. A consistent top-five Detroit Tigers prospect between 2019 and 2021, Paredes' OPS has significantly ascended in each of the past four years. He finished 18th in American League MVP voting on a productive .250/.352/.488 triple-slash line with 31 bombs, 24 two-baggers, and 98 RBI last season.
Isaac Paredes was the only hitter in the league to hit 20 homers and averages less than 380 feet on them pic.twitter.com/Vzek2bkwPQ
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) February 7, 2024
Although Paredes offers the Tampa Bay Rays defensive versatility across the infield, he's been a mediocre defender throughout his career. They are still likely to need him to occupy an everyday role in the aftermath of the Wander Franco situation, however, and much of his expected statistics can likely be attributed to the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Tropicana Field. Paredes closed as Statcast's No. 3 hitter in launch angle jump, but the power might not be sustainable on a lowly 28.5% hard-hit rate.
Isaac Paredes' Home Runs in 2022 and 2023 😂 pic.twitter.com/lZx1jH8DGi
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 24, 2023
The 25-year-old infielder isn't the most exciting player to draft, but his multi-position eligibility is an attractive asset late in drafts. I'd still be lying if I didn't feel worried about the discrepancy between his .488 SLG and .369 xSLG as well as a .362 wOBA and .315 xwOBA.
Paredes isn't going to make up for it in the steals department, plus a solid 10.6% walk rate doesn't do us many favors for run-scoring prospects if he's batting fifth or lower, so he's going to have to keep leaving the yard in left field to avoid losing playing time.
J.P. Crawford: SS, Seattle Mariners
2022: 8.9 | 2023: 15.2
After the Philadelphia Phillies spent the No. 13 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft on J.P. Crawford, it looked as if the shortstop was shaping into a bust. Crawford was Philly's No. 1 prospect for three consecutive years from 2015 to 2017, but it wasn't until he landed with the Seattle Mariners as part of the Jean Segura-Carlos Santana swap on December 3, 2018 that he found his way in the bigs with a Gold Glove Award in 2020. He did a great job of drawing free passes and not striking out last year, but there's not much else to sink our teeth into.
How did @jp_crawford increase his power production while maintaining elite discipline at the plate in 2023?@CY24_7 caught up with the @Mariners shortstop to learn about the adjustments that made it happen. pic.twitter.com/VNlpxngNFK
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 10, 2024
Although that Gold Glove may have been a fluke when you look at defensive returns since, Crawford further established himself as an on-base machine in 2023, leading the AL with 94 free passes in 145 contests as Seattle's everyday leadoff man. The 29-year-old is undoubtedly a points league preference, since he won't swipe many bases or drive in a lot of runs, but the fact that he placed fourth in launch angle risers means a 20-homer campaign firmly lies within his range of potential outcomes.
A preseason riser, Crawford is batting .333 (12-for-36) with one big fly, five RBI, and seven runs scored during 14 Cactus League appearances. He should be viewed as dark-horse candidate to pace the AL in runs scored atop an improved and formidable M's lineup.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
2022: 4.3 | 2023: 10.5
Perhaps posing as the "MLB The Show 24" cover athlete will bring on some extra motivation for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's been an All-Star in three straight years, but there's no question Guerrero has underdelivered in back-to-back seasons after leading baseball in long balls (48) and runs (123) while ending as the AL MVP runner-up in 2021. It's surprising he didn't bounce back in 2023, considering the former Home Run Derby champion's launch angle exceeded that of his 2021 number.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1)
Spring Training🌴Opponent: Philadelphia Phillies
Pitcher: Nick Nelson
Date: 3/4/24pic.twitter.com/BuKbYIckAs— TOR Home Runs (@TOR__HR) March 4, 2024
He's off to a decent start this spring, hitting a modest .424 (14-for-33) with a 1.213 OPS, three bombs, one double, and 10 RBI in 13 Grapefruit League outings.
Couple that with Guerrero posting Statcast's widest positive difference between BA (.264) and xBA (.299) and second-highest gap between wOBA (.340) and xwOBA (.378), and we have ourselves a recipe for a potential MVP-caliber campaign out of Vlad.
Baseball's top prospect from 2019 is a virtual lock for 25-plus bombs, considering he's missed little to no time since joining the bigs, making Guerrero among fantasy's safest picks with massive upside late in the second and early in the third round of fantasy drafts.
Brandon Nimmo: OF, New York Mets
2022: 6.1 | 2023: 12.2
Brandon Nimmo could have enjoyed a huge season in the first season of an eight-year deal with the New York Mets. That's not to say he didn't produce; Nimmo recorded a career-high 24 blasts and 68 RBI strictly out of the leadoff spot and tallied his fourth straight campaign with at least a .270 BA and .360 OBP.
The 30-year-old former first-rounder has always possessed strong speed, though he wasn't able to add that dimension to his fantasy package despite baseball's new rules.
Brandon Nimmo Could Be Moved Down In The Lineup https://t.co/iy1LJyKtnT
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) March 10, 2024
Nimmo swiped three bags in April but was caught stealing on an ill-advised attempt late in a dreadful 2-0 loss to the Detroit Tigers on May 4. Do you know how many bases he stole thereafter? Zero. Even so, the speedy outfielder logged Statcast's sixth-highest increase in launch angle from 2022 to 2023.
If the Mets actually move him to the two-hole a bit more, it could broaden Nimmo's fantasy appeal outside of points leagues if the power doesn't carry over, but he's still likely to only be a four-category contributor.
Luis Robert Jr.: OF, Chicago White Sox
2022: 10.0 | 2023: 16.1
Unable to stay on the field consistently following a promising rookie campaign, Luis Robert Jr. put together all his talent in 2023 that made him baseball's No. 3 prospect for 2020. His MVP-level season falling under the radar due to the Chicago White Sox's disappointment as a team, Robert managed a very healthy year.
He shook off a slow start to roll with a .264 BA, 38 round-trippers, 80 RBI, 90 runs scored, and 20 thefts covering 546 ABs. LuBob has only nine knocks in 46 spring ABs, but two were goners on March 12.
Luis Robert Jr goes deep again. His second of the game and of the spring. That ball was launched.
— Chuck Garfien (@ChuckGarfien) March 13, 2024
The first-time All-Star and Silver Slugger's 16.1-degree launch angle paralleled that of his 2020 figure when he bopped 11 big flies in just 227 plate appearances. Although there may not be room for much more growth in what's projected to be a poor ChiSox lineup, Robert should be one of their lone bright spots again in 2024. His speed makes him an obvious threat to repeat for 20 pilfers, but the lack of plate discipline and pedestrian average means he could rely more on power than some may realize.
