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The annual All-Star break offers fantasy baseball managers a great chance to assess and revamp their rosters for the stretch run. With both the fantasy and real-life trade deadlines looming, this stage of the season signifies one of the last key opportunities to make a potentially league-winning swap.
These sell-high picks consider a combination of statistic discrepancies on Statcast as well as prospective upcoming deadline moves. Many of these players probably weren’t even chosen in most spring drafts, which can also indicate a red flag.
I experienced some success in calling out sell-high candidates with this method earlier this year, viewing Taylor Walls as such back in mid-May. After batting .281 with a .956 OPS across his initial 96 at-bats, Walls has hit .160 with a .499 OPS over 131 ABs since then. Let's see if we can find more situations like this using a similar approach.
Top Fantasy Baseball Sell-High Candidates
Isaac Paredes - 1B/2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Isaac Paredes has performed as one of Tampa Bay's many 2023 offensive standouts. The former Detroit Tigers' top prospect has admittedly improved with the bat each year, now slashing .265/.370/.504 with 16 home runs, 56 RBI, and one stolen base over 305 plate appearances this season. But Paredes carries a top-10 differential among all hitters between his actual and expected numbers in each category of AVG, SLG, and wOBA.
The 24-year-old walks at a high 10.8% rate, but a low 14th-percentile sprint speed renders him as little threat on the bases. He also regularly slots into the lower half of the Rays lineup. It’s simply hard to envision Paredes' play style continually translating to fantasy success if the slugging regression comes to fruition. The pull-hitting Paredes has not impressed with the glove, either. The contending Rays could soon augment their infield via trade scenarios or even the call-up of top prospects Curtis Mead and/or Kyle Manzardo.
TJ Friedl - OF, Cincinnati Reds
Meet arguably baseball’s luckiest man of '23 so far, Reds outfielder TJ Friedl. Cincinnati has authored a captivating first-half story with its exciting crop of youth leading the charge, and the 27-year-old has represented a big part of the movement. But Friedl has somehow managed an extraordinary .304 BA and .458 SLG with six long balls and 32 RBI across 240 ABs despite an ordinary .245 xBA and especially dingy .311 xSLG.
As a left-handed hitter with speed (16 SB) and leadoff skills (17.3% strikeout rate), I'd feel a bit better about potentially holding onto Friedl than Paredes. However, Friedl’s possible negative regression could act as the harbinger for the promotion of the Reds' top-prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who is waiting patiently in the wings. At first place in the NL Central standings, Cincy is also in a position to behave as buyers at the deadline, which may also adversely affect Friedl's playing time.
Geraldo Perdomo - 2B/3B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Meet another one of MLB's luckiest players in '23, Diamondbacks infielder Geraldo Perdomo. The 23-year-old’s possible negative regression held up in time for him to somehow garner a 2023 All-Star nod over the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Lindor, and perhaps even teammate Ketel Marte. Perdomo alarmingly carries first-percentile status in each of the xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate areas.
The switch-hitter's Statcast profile implies that of a defensive specialist who protects the plate simply as a table setter. Perdomo's breakout has nonetheless resulted in a .271/.378/.409 triple-slash line with five homers, 33 RBI, and 11 swipes (274 PAs). The on-base machine has provided the D-backs a lift offensively over defense-first Nick Ahmed at shortstop. This is pure speculation, but Arizona feels like a very suitable destination for Tim Anderson, who could desperately use a change of scenery with trade rumors swirling.
Cody Bellinger - 1B/OF, Chicago Cubs
There’s some reluctance on this one, but the peripherals indicate the revived Cody Bellinger constitutes a prime sell-high option. The 27-year-old is playing essentially on a one-year, prove-it deal with a 2024 mutual option, and has raked thus far. Bellinger is hitting .298 with a .846 OPS, nine big flies, 29 RBI, and 11 thefts (218 ABs). While the 2019 NL MVP is striking out at a similar rate that helped him bring home the award that year, Bellinger is hitting the ball hard at a lower clip (27.9%) than he ever has in his career.
The two-time All-Star's short-term contract coupled with Bellinger's resurgence makes him an obvious piece who could be moved at the deadline. The reason for the trepidation here is due to Bellinger’s links to the New York Yankees, where his left-handed bat could fit like a glove with Yankee Stadium’s right-field short porch. Consider Belli a risk-reward sell-high gamble, whose across-the-board Statcast rankings are mostly below average. If he stays put in Chicago, his lower-half lineup placement remains fairly unexciting.
Lane Thomas - OF, Washington Nationals
Perhaps fantasy’s most screaming sell-high asset, Nationals right fielder Lane Thomas has shone through as a '23 revelation. The 27-year-old checks in at the break as Yahoo’s seventh-overall roto-league-ranked outfielder, flaunting a .302 BA with 14 dingers, 49 RBI, eight pilfers, and 60 runs scored in '23. Not bad for a player who wasn’t drafted in most competitive leagues this past spring.
Thomas' emergence reminds me of the 2022 breakout of Taylor Ward, who cooled off in a big way after a first-half surge last July and August before heating up again in September. Thomas’ stock isn't going to reach a higher point than it's at right now even if he remains a solid mixed-league contributor the rest of the way. Without any underlying stuff that jumps off the Statcast page besides speed, Thomas is a sell high who could theoretically nab you a struggling star such as Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte, or Byron Buxton.
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