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Jackson's sleeper picks to make the first 12-team College Football Playoff. Which six under-the-radar college football programs could make a run at the first 12-team playoff bracket?
College football has evolved quickly over the last two decades. Before the 1998 season, there was no National Championship. Instead, voters decided who was crowned champion based on their regular season and bowl game resumes. That went on for over 100 years. Then, the BCS (Bowl Championship Series) era began, pitting the two best teams in the country against each other to decide who earned championship rings.
Ahead of the 2014 season, the College Football Playoff was created, opening up the race for the "natty" to four teams. It only took a decade before it was decided that four teams were not enough. The 2024-25 college football season will feature the first-ever 12-team bracket for the National Championship.
With 12 teams heading into important postseason action every season, the number of schools with a realistic shot to make the tournament becomes exponentially larger. In this article, we'll dive into six early dark horse contenders to make the 2024-25 College Football Playoff.
Pick Selection Process
To be considered a "dark horse" selection, the teams listed must fit the following criteria:
- Has never made a College Football Playoff
- Outside the top 15 in final CFP Rankings of 2023
- Outside the top 10 in odds to win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship (DraftKings)
Tennessee Volunteers
National Championship Winner Odds: +3500
Head Coach/Quarterback: Josh Heupel/Nico Iamaleava (R-Fr.)
Tennessee won 11 games in 2022, including an Orange Bowl victory over the Clemson Tigers. Although the Volunteers regressed to nine wins in 2023, they have a chance to bounce back to contention in 2024. Ultimately, their chances ride on the right shoulder and legs of redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The California native was the No. 2 overall recruit in the class of 2023, trailing only Arch Manning.
Joe Milton ultimately held the starting job for Tennessee in his sixth collegiate season last year, but Iamaleava showed flashes in limited action. In his lone start against Iowa in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, the 19-year-old completed 12 of his 19 passing attempts for 151 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 27 yards and three touchdowns. He's oozing with talent, and he'll be coached by one of the best offensive minds in college football.
Iowa only gave up 4 rushing touchdowns the entire season.
That number is now 7 after Tennessee freshman Nico Iamaleava ran for 3 touchdowns today in the Cheez-It Bowl. pic.twitter.com/HffcjWWCSd
— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) January 1, 2024
While Tennessee's offense took a dip without Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, its defense improved to the No. 32 unit nationally in yards per game (335.2). If the defense can remain respectable and Iamaleava lives up to the hype, the ceiling is sky-high.
Notre Dame tight end transfer Holden Staes and Tulane wide receiver transfer Chris Brazzell will complement wideouts Squirrel White and Dont'e Thornton Jr. nicely while running back Dylan Sampson will carry the load in the backfield after the departure of Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright.
Oh yes, and Nick Saban is gone, so Alabama could be as beatable as ever, and the Vols will host the Crimson Tide in Neyland Stadium this year.
Utah Utes
National Championship Winner Odds: +6000
Head Coach/Quarterback: Kyle Whittingham/Cam Rising (7th-year Sr.)
There will be a recurring trend with these dark horse selections: quarterback play. That said, Utah has a great chance to make some noise in the Big 12 this year with seventh-year senior QB Cam Rising. Rising, who turns 25 in May, threw for 5,432 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions at Utah during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He led the Utes to an 18-6 record over those two years. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. The injury sidelined him for the entire 2023 campaign.
Cam Rising's touchdown pass to Jaylen Dixon ties the ball game🙌🏿
Utah is tied with USC 17-17 at halftime 🏈pic.twitter.com/lNdhiWfRmf
— 247Sports (@247Sports) December 3, 2022
By the start of the 2024 season, he should be fully healed up and ready to go, and head coach Kyle Whittingham's physical style should translate well to a Big 12 conference that no longer features Texas and Oklahoma. Arizona, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State will provide stiff competition for Utah, but they've faced much tougher opponents in the Pac-12 over the last two or three years. Utah picked up Washington wideout transfer Taeshaun Lyons and USC wideout transfer Dorian Singer this offseason. Expect offensive fireworks in the upcoming season.
The Utes have won at least 10 games in three of their last five seasons and will head into 2024 with arguably the best quarterback and head coach in their new conference. Don't be shocked if Utah is among the final 12 teams standing when the dust settles.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
National Championship Winner Odds: +5500
Head Coach/Quarterback: Mario Cristobal/Cameron Ward (5th-year Sr.)
When Miami started 4-0 last season, including a win over Texas A&M, the Canes looked primed to finally compete in the ACC. After a crushing loss to Georgia Tech in Week 5, the team unraveled, winning just three more games to finish out the year 7-6.
It's time to turn the page on the disastrous 2023 campaign and look forward to the Cameron Ward-led offense in 2024. Ward heads to Miami from Washington State, where he threw for just under 7,000 yards and 48 touchdowns. He added 13 scores as a rusher.
If you add in his two seasons at Incarnate Word, the Texas native has compiled 13,874 passing yards, 119 passing touchdowns, 30 interceptions, and 16 rushing touchdowns over the last four years. The Hurricanes have been missing a game-breaking quarterback for a long time, so Ward's arrival is a significant development.
Too easy for Cameron Ward 🔥@WSUCougarFB strikes first!
(Sponsored by @Allstate #CFBisMayhem) pic.twitter.com/WmOFCPwWmn
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 24, 2022
Mario Cristobal brought in the No. 16 recruiting class in 2022 and the No. 7 recruiting class in 2023, and he currently has the No. 3 recruiting class in 2024 (247Sports). With all of the talent on the roster gaining a year of experience and Ward leading the offense, Miami can make a serious run at the ACC crown.
Clemson isn't the juggernaut it once was, and Florida State and NC State are likely the other two main contenders within the conference. Cristobal is likely on the hot seat, so if the team underperforms this year, it could get awkward in South Beach. This is the year.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
National Championship Winner Odds: +15000
Head Coach/Quarterback: Dave Doeren/Grayson McCall (6th-year Sr.)
Following a 9-4 2023 season, NC State is another program that landed an impact quarterback transfer this offseason. After five years at Coastal Carolina, Grayson McCall decided to make the move up to the ACC.
In four seasons as a starter, McCall racked up over 11,000 yards of offense and 108 total touchdowns while throwing just 14 interceptions. He arrives in Raleigh with a 33-7 career record. To help McCall's chances to succeed, NC State secured the No. 3 ranked tight end (Justin Jolly, UConn) and the No. 10 ranked wide receiver (Noah Rogers, Ohio State) in the transfer portal.
The Wolfpack offense has plenty of room for improvement from last season (24.7 PPG), but their defense was excellent (19.4 PPG allowed). Doeren has established the Wolfpack as a respectable team in the ACC, but it appears as if the program is ready to make the jump toward true contention on the national stage. There have been many cases where splash quarterback transfers don't work out, but McCall has the chance to help them do just that.
— SportingVids (@VidsSporting) December 27, 2020
Kansas Jayhawks
National Championship Winner Odds: +20000
Head Coach/Quarterback: Lance Leipold/Jalon Daniels (5th-year Sr.)
While picking Kansas as a potential College Football Playoff team might sound outrageous, the Jayhawks have a legitimate outside chance. Last year, quarterback Jalon Daniels was named the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. However, a training camp injury caused him to miss the team's season opener. He returned to action in Week 2 against Illinois and led the team to three straight victories behind a 74.7% completion percentage, five passing touchdowns, and just one interception. Unfortunately, he re-aggravated his back injury in warmups before the game against Texas, and his season ultimately ended after three contests.
GRIMMMMM 🗣@KU_Football extends their lead before half 💪 pic.twitter.com/QsjJOwbFPk
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 24, 2022
He's back in 2024, and Texas and Oklahoma are no longer in the league. After leading Kansas to their first nine-win season since 2007, head coach Lance Leipold could make a run at a Big 12 crown this year.
Kansas posted 446.1 yards per game on offense despite Daniels being inactive, and its only loss of more than seven points came on the road against a Texas team that made the College Football Playoff. The Jayhawks' non-conference schedule of Lindenwood, Illinois, and UNLV is not a concern, so a double-digit win season and an appearance in the Big 12 title game is not unrealistic.
Boise State Broncos
National Championship Winner Odds: +40000
Head Coach/Quarterback: Spencer Danielson/Malachi Nelson (R-Fr)
The highest-ranked group of five programs will earn a spot in the College Football Playoff, and Boise State is primed to be that team. The university fired Andy Avalos after a 5-5 start last season, and interim head coach Spencer Danielson led the team to two victories to end the regular season and a Mountain West Championship.
Now, big-time quarterback transfer Malachi Nelson is heading from Los Angeles to Boise, where he should immediately become the next signal-caller in the conference. The 20-year-0ld gunslinger was the fifth-rated quarterback in the 2023 class, and those kinds of prospects rarely opt to play below the Power Five level. Nelson played in just one game for the USC Trojans last year, so this is a projection, but the upside is immense.
It's worth noting the Broncos play against Oregon in Eugene in Week 2, but if they run the table otherwise and take home their second consecutive Mountain West title, they could find themselves ranked favorably for a playoff berth.
Ten programs who have been bad-season proof over the last decade. 💪
✍️: @BCrawford247
MORE: https://t.co/WTBcM4ZFgx pic.twitter.com/66jhzKV45g
— 247Sports (@247Sports) January 31, 2024
