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his is it for big NHL slates until after the All-Star Break; ten days from now on Tuesday, February 6. There are one and two-game slates for the next few days, but the prize pools will likely be lower until we get back to bigger slates as well. Basically, get in while the getting is good today! Thankfully, this is a fun slate with strong stacking options up all night long.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including three tournaments that have an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Vancouver Canucks (VAN1 - Elias Pettersson, Ilya Mikheyev, Andrei Kuzemko)
The Canucks don’t have the absolute best matchup on the slate, but it’s close, and compared to the team with the best matchup (Calgary) they are the far better line to stack. That matchup is expected to include Daniil Tarasov in net for the Blue Jackets, which is what puts the line over the top. Tarasov has been awful this year, allowing four or more goals in 67% of his starts. Columbus allows the third most shots on goal on the slate, which gives a bump to volume scoring potential for the Canucks. As a team, the Blue Jackets have allowed three even-strength goals and 12.15 high-danger shots per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. Lots of volume, lots of “easy” scoring chances, and a terrible goalie all make for an elite spot for Vancouver.
Vancouver’s top line was strong last week when they had J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser on it, but we’ve seen Elias Pettersson be successful with Mikheyev and Kuzmenko earlier this year so I’d still qualify them as an elite lineup. They also are a combined $7,000 cheaper than Boeser and Miller, so they don’t need to do nearly as much to smash value. As a team, they have scored more than three-and-a-half even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, so you can qualify them as a team in an offensive groove.
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel)
It may seem weird that the Penguins are a top stacking option when looking at their data. They have scored an average of fewer than two even-strength goals over their last ten home games, which is one of the worst runs in the league currently. Those numbers can be a bit misleading, as advanced data says that the Pens should have scored 40% more goals. That’s a big disparity, and the positive regression that could follow is one of the big reasons why we are looking at Pittsburgh tonight. I’ll miss the savings we got with Rickard Rakell on this line, but Bryan Rust isn’t that much more expensive and he’s the far better player.
Another reason to like the Penguins is that they get to face a defensively-challenged Canadiens team. Montreal has allowed 3.26 even-strength goals and 12.55 high-danger chances over their last ten road games. A weak defense like this needs all the help it can get. They won’t find it in net tonight as Jake Allen should be the starting goalie for Montreal, and he’s had a rough season. He’s allowed three or more goals in 75% of his starts and saved more than 90% of the shots he’s faced only 50% of the time.
Detroit Red Wings (DET1 - Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin)
I can hear the screaming now, “Doug, you’re a Vegas fan. You know how good Adin Hill is. They are the defending Cup champs. Come on homer, why are you stacking against them?” And you know what, I hear you. It’s so weird to stack against a goalie who has allowed more than two goals in a game only twice in his last nine starts. Detroit’s advanced statistics show that they were expected to score only two even-strength goals over their last ten games and that their success came from a little bit of luck. What are we doing here?
One of the new features we’ve added to the Heat Map is a schedule section (on the goalie's page) to help indicate teams that are in bad spots for a variety of calendar-related reasons. Vegas is the first team to check off all three sections and the hidden fourth section. They are on the second night of a back-to-back and had to travel between games (check), they are on the last night of a four-game road trip (check), they are playing their third game in four nights (check), they are playing their third game in four nights (check), and their fourth game in six nights (hidden check). We can add another check, as the Knights had to travel through time zones to play this game. It just so happens that Vegas has allowed over three even-strength goals and 12.55 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. They allowed one goal last night against the Rangers. This is a team that is ready to get rolled. I’m going to be wildly overweight on Detroit tonight for scheduling reasons only. The positive defensive matchup is just the icing on the cake.
Others in consideration: WPG1, TB1, FLA1, CGY1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Calgary Flames (CGY3 - Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund)
This may technically be Calgary’s third line, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be their best. There’s a reason that Blake Coleman is the most expensive winger on the team; he’s the best they have. He averages the most points, and he’s playing well at the moment. Over his last eleven games, he has a combined 11 goals and assists, averaging eleven DraftKings points per game. Both Mangiapane and Backlund have played among the top six for Calgary, so we know their potential is higher than that of a typical third-winger.
Let’s be honest though, we aren’t looking to stack the Flames because of anything they have done. They are playing the Blackhawks, and that means they have the best matchup in the league. Chicago is so bad, allowing 3.7 even-strength goals and over 15 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of their last ten games. They are weak up and down their lineup, but we are going to target the defensive duo of Jones/Vlasic for maximum value. That brings us to the third line for the Flames. If you want to get a little freaky with your lineup, you can go with a full onslaught of six skaters for Calgary. Keep this trio, and add Connor Zary, Matt Coronado, and Rasmus Andersson for full correlation with the Flames’s second power-play unit. Doing this gives you a ton of exposure to the best matchup on the slate, and allows you to use whomever your heart desires to fill out the other three spots in your lineup (see the sample DraftKings lineup on the Heat Map for an example of how to play this).
Others in consideration: PIT3, TB3, VGK2, VAN, CGY2
Top Goalies to Target
Alex Lyon (Detroit Red Wings)
I’m not going to bore you by rewriting everything I said about the schedule for the Golden Knights in the Detroit stack section, but it all applies to the Vegas offense as well. They could come out as flat as they’ve been all year in this game, and if that’s the case then Lyon could have an easier time than one would expect against the greatest professional sports franchise of all time (there’s my homerism).
I’m just going to keep writing Lyon up every time he proves me right. He’s been our goalie target multiple times over the last couple of weeks and he just keeps coming through. Over his last nine starts, he’s scored 18 or more fantasy points seven times. He allowed five goals against Dallas on January 23, but before that start, he had allowed more than three goals twice in seventeen starts. This is a guy who just doesn’t get beat. Even better is that he came back out in his start following the blowout against Dallas and put up 31 DraftKings points, allowing zero goals on 30 shots. He’s only $7,500 tonight, making him a value to use in both cash and GPP lineups (although I’d understand if you only felt comfortable using him in a GPP given the potential of the Golden Knights).
Others in consideration (GPP): Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tristan Jarry, Connor Ingram, Ilya Sorokin
Others in consideration (Cash): Jacob Markstrom, Connor Helleybuck, Thatcher Demko
