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Welcome back and happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Detroit Lions for the Divisional Round of playoffs. Baker Mayfield looks to pull off another upset as the Lions hope to reverse the curse and make it back-to-back playoff wins for the first time in 32 years. The Lions come in as six-point favorites but can the Buccaneers make this a close game down to the final minutes?
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Lions NFL DFS showdown slate on January 21. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @SEvansDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Baker Mayfield - QB, $14,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 566 passing attempts, 364 completions, 4,044 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions
- Projection: 21 completions, 33 passing attempts, 271.5 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns, 0.4 interceptions, and 18.2 fantasy points.
Baker Mayfield continues to succeed and impress so far this year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He'll be looking to cause another upset in Detroit for the Divisional round of the playoffs. He had an impressive outing versus the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wildcard round where he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions off of 22 completions for 337 passing yards. In a game where the Buccaneers are the dogs once again, Mayfield could end up playing from behind and any junk-time yardage is good for DFS.
With the Lions' defense, they do rank 23rd in points allowed per game which could be a boost on Sunday. They also rank 19th in total yards allowed. The only downside is that the Lions do rank 13th in pressure rate and 11th in blitz rate which could cause Baker Mayfield to make some quick and tough decisions in the pocket. He showed what he could do versus the Philadelphia Eagles and if he can match what Matthew Stafford did versus the Lions last week, Mayfield should be fine and able to keep this game closer than many expect.
Has Baker Mayfield earned a QB1 contract this offseason? 💰 pic.twitter.com/SxxrmVdfdL
— PFF (@PFF) January 19, 2024
Amon-Ra St. Brown- WR, $16,800 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 164 targets, 119 receptions, 1,515 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns
- Projection: 9.9 targets, 7.5 receptions, 97.3 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 13.1 fantasy points
There is Amon-Ra St. Brown in Detroit and the second closest receiver, Josh Reynolds, isn't even close to him. St. brown is a very dangerous receiver and while he did cool down mid-season, he started back to his consistent play in Week 15. He has recorded 100 receiving yards in four of his last five games (which does include the Wildcard game versus the Los Angeles Rams) and has four touchdowns combined between the five.
On the season, ASB holds a target share of 28% with 80% catchable targets. He nows gets a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 23rd in total yards allowed per game and 25th in yards per attempt. They also rank 24th versus opposing receivers, allowing 35.3 total fantasy points per game. Being a touchdown favorite on Sunday could mean Amon-Ra St. Brown is in for another heavy targeted game but also a high ceiling for fantasy points.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jared Goff, Mike Evans, Rachaadd White
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Godwin - WR, $7,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 130 targets, 83 receptions, 1,024 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns, 4 rushing attempts, 38 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown
- Projection: 6.8 targets, 4.5 receptions, 56.9 receiving yards, 0.2 receiving touchdowns, and 7.2 fantasy points
Chris Godwin has had an inconsistent season this year but was able to right some wrongs in the Wildcard round versus Philadelphia. He had five targets in the game which he caught four of and went for 45 receiving yards and one touchdown. Now, he and Mike Evans get a pretty solid matchup versus the Detroit Lions secondary. They currently rank third versus opposing receivers and allow 39.9 fantasy points to them.
Godwin finished off the regular season strong with five straight games of five targets or more. He even had 10 targets or more from Week 14 to Week 16. The chemistry between him and Baker Mayfield was established at a slower rate but did so at the right time. Godwin will have slightly lower ownership than Mike Evans but both have ceilings that are hard to turn away from in this showdown.
David Montgomery - RB, $7,800 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 219 rushing attempts, 1,015 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, 24 targets, 16 receptions, and 117 receiving yards
- Projection: 14.3 rushing attempts, 59.2 rushing yards, 0.8 rushing touchdowns, 1.4 targets, 1.1 receptions, 8.2 receiving yards, and 12.3 fantasy points
The Detroit Lions have one of the most threatening running back duos with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both backs are used in different ways and Montgomery has proven to be the ground attack for them. He holds a 45% rush attempt share on the season compared to Gibbs's 37%. He is used less in routes run by the backs as Gibbs does hold that share at 49% to Montgomery's 26%.
With the Detroit Lions as a touchdown favorite, they could look to extend drives and kill the clock by using David Montgomery on the ground. He is projected for 59.2 rushing yards off of 14 rushing attempts. While Tampa Bay's defense ranks ninth when it comes to rushing yards, they do rank 27th to rushing plays by opposing offenses. They also rank 30th in missed tackles which gives David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs huge boosts and both can be utilized in showdown.
This move by David Montgomery to pick up the 1st down! 😲
The Rams had a season high 15 missed tackles against the Lions. pic.twitter.com/fAI6Ri7SiS
— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) January 16, 2024
Other Flex Options: Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Cade Otton
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Trey Palmer - WR, $4,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 68 targets, 39 receptions, 385 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns
- Projection: 3.8 targets, 2.2 receptions, 24.3 receiving yards, 0.2 receiving touchdowns, and 3.6 fantasy points
Trey Palmer had a huge fantasy points game during the Wildcard matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles. He saw two targets but his one reception went for 56 receiving yards and a score. The Buccaneers also had him used in the run game with one rushing attempt for nine yards. While he wasn't targeted heavily last week, Palmer has become one of Baker Mayfield's favorite targets to end the regular season. He finished with six targets in Week 16, five in Week 17, and six in Week 18. He had one touchdown in those three games but put up 42 receiving yards versus Jacksonville, 84 yards versus New Orleans, and 10 yards versus Carolina in a very low-scoring game.
Trey Palmer doesn't provide a huge upside but if he gets the one-play magic again to find the end-zone, he easily pays off his price tag with what should be low ownership. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be the heavy stacking targets with Mayfield but Palmer will provide a unique lineup and low ownership in multi-entry contests.
Chase McLaughlin - K, $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 33 extra points attempted, 33 extra points made, 31 field goals attempted, 29 field goals made, 93.5 field goal percentage
Chase McLaughlin comes into play as a value play due to the Detroit Lions defense. While as a kicker there isn't much to deep dive on, the Lions' defense has one of the higher completion percentage allowed as they rank 10th. They also rank 23rd in points per game allowed. There will most likely be some drives that go deep for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but may end up not finding the end-zone and they'll have to settle for a field goal. With just a salary of $4,800 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel, McLaughlin should be able to pay off at his price in a great matchup/
Other Value Plays: Chase Edmonds, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jameson Williams
Enjoy your day and good luck everyone!
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