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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the Divisional Round games on Sunday, January 21, 2024. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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Underdog NFL DFS Prop Picks - Sunday Slate
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Aiden Hutchinson, 3.5 Tackles + Assists (HIGHER)
Aiden Hutchinson is an absolute machine and has had one of the best seasons out of defensive ends. He makes a huge impact on the defensive side of the ball and when he is on it, this Detroit Lions defense takes it up to a whole different level. He has passed the 4 combined tackles and assist mark in the past three games, including the Wildcard matchup versus the Los Angeles Rams. Hutchinson had four solo tackles alone versus them.
Using the Proptimizer, Aiden Hutchinson has the sixth-highest implied total to go over his line. He sits at -118 (54.03%) to go over. Looking at this Lions' defense as a whole, they rank 13th in pressure rate and 11th in blitz rate which the Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggle to stop at times. They also rank 8th when it comes to stuff rate. Overall, Aiden Hutchinson and this Detroit Lions' defense could have fun versus the Buccaneers.
Baker Mayfield, 261.5 Passing Yards (HIGHER)
Baker Mayfield picked up in Tampa Bay where Tom Brady left off and has had the best season of his career. Now he's one game closer to the NFC Championship game. Coming off a red-hot game versus the Philadelphia Eagles, Mayfield recorded 337 passing yards on 22 completions for three touchdowns. He'll be facing a tough Detroit Lions defense but one that gives up some huge yards versus opposing quarterbacks.
In the Wildcard matchup versus the Los Angeles Rams, the Lions allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 367 yards on 25 completions for two touchdowns in what was a very close game. Mayfield is expected to have a similar output. He's projected for 21 completions on 33 passing attempts for 271.5 yards and 1.6 touchdowns. The Lions are -6 favorites and with that, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers could be playing catchup toward the end of the game, boosting Mayfield's passing yards total.
Justin Watson, 17.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Justin Watson is that unknown factor in the Kansas City Chiefs offense and while he isn't targeted heavily, he gets the job done to help out some drives. He has a very low total of 17.5 yards versus the Buffalo Bills and what should be a very competitive matchup. He was able to record two receptions off of two targets versus Miami in the Wildcard round for 20 receiving yards. In Week 18, he had one target that he didn't real in but had four straight games before that with 18 or more receiving yards. He even had six targets in Week 16 versus the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day. Watson doesn't have incredible target share rates like Rashee Rice or Travis Kelce, but he still makes an impact for an offense that hasn't been very explosive this season.
Going back to the Proptimizer, Justin Watson has an implied total of -128 (56.145) to go over his mark. That brings him as the fifth-highest player to go over his total in this game. The Buffalo Bills do rank 7th when it comes to defending opposing receivers but with the weapons of Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco, Justin Watson will have opportunities open up for himself in this game.
Stefon Diggs, 62.5 Receiving Yards (LOWER)
It's rare to find a Stefon Diggs receiving prop and want to go lower on it but there is a strong case to be made for that here. Diggs has hit a rough patch this season and after a strong start through the first six games, he has been a very inconsistent weapon for the Buffalo Bills. While he did reach the over of 62.5 in Week 18 versus the Miami Dolphins, he went under in the four games before Week 18 but also in the Wildcard rounder versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now facing the Kansas City Chiefs, expect another low-output game from him, especially with the weather in Buffalo.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a tough unit to face all season long for teams to face. They currently rank 2nd in total yards allowed and points per game. They also rank third when it comes to yards per attempt and fourth in net passing yards. They will be looking to slow down this Buffalo Bills offense and to keep Stefon Diggs under control.
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