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Premium NFL DFS Cheat Sheet - Divisional Round Playoffs
We have reached the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, meaning just 8 teams remain and will battle it out for the remaining four spots left in the championship round. With only 4 games, I ditched the big sheet and I am going to do a game-by-game breakdown with my top plays in each game and some ideas on how to stack them.
There are 2-game slates for both Saturday and Sunday available, but those get very chalky in a hurry. I will dabble a little in those for fun, but most of my action will be on the full weekend 4-game slate.
Saturday's Games
Houston @ Baltimore (43.5 O/U)
The Ravens are heavy home favorites here against the Texans, and I get it - they looked superb down the stretch until resting their regulars in Week 18. Oh, and Lamar Jackson could get his best receiver back this week with Mark Andrews returning, too? Let's just hand the Ravens this game already, right?
UPDATE: Mark Andrews will NOT be activated for this game.
I counted out the Texans last week against Cleveland, so I am not about to do it again this week in Baltimore. C.J. Stroud looks unflappable and the Texans have just enough defense to perhaps slow down Baltimore's run game and force Lamar Jackson and the passing game to beat them.
Baltimore has the top defense in the NFL, but we still saw Stroud take it to the Cleveland (2nd-ranked) defense last week. No Marlon Humphrey this week means I think we can consider Nico Collins, even at his elevated price. And pairing him with Stroud will be a contrarian stack for sure. The other pass-catcher I like the most would be Dalton Schultz as the Ravens could be a bit more vulnerable over the middle of the field than on the outsides.
For the Ravens, I am drawn to their passing game with Houston being vastly improved against the run this year. Lamar should be popular, but pairing him with tight end Isaiah Likely is one way to get a little leverage as I think most might look to play him with Flowers instead. The rest of the Ravens receivers are total dart throws. The Ravens' defense could be chalky, I'd rather pay down for some other defenses in the other games.
Top Plays: Lamar Jackson, Isaiah Likely, Nico Collins
Secondary Plays: C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, Zay Flowers
Green Bay @ San Francisco (50.5 O/U)
The Packers shocked everyone last week with a huge win over the Cowboys and now have to head to San Francisco to face a rested juggernaut in the Niners. Can they repeat what they did against an even better defense or slow down what has been an unstoppable offense?
Probably not entirely, but I think this is a game and closer than the 9.5-point spread suggests it will be. The Packers have been able to establish the run game with Aaron Jones now four straight games in a row as he's topped 100 yards and the Niners' one soft spot on defense is on the interior.
Jordan Love is also not afraid to push the ball downfield and has the mobility to elude the pass rush and make plays. They won't come as easy as last week, but I think he can keep the chains moving by finding Jayden Reed and his tight end Luke Musgrave in the slot and working the seams.
For the Niners, everything starts with Christian McCaffrey. If you can fit CMC into your lineups (easier to do on DK than FD) then you should. I expect him to top 100 yards from scrimmage whether it's mainly running or receiving as he plays such a huge role in this offense.
Picking between Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel is always a bit maddening. Samuel has incredible YAC potential and also gets some runs schemed for him, especially around the goal line. But he usually needs that touchdown to make value at his price. While the Packers' pass defense has been porous this season, they've been much better in the latter half of the season and my favorite Niners' pass catcher might actually be George Kittle, who is quite affordable and who has the best matchup of any TE this week per PFF.
Green Bay's defense is the cheapest on the slate and for that reason alone, I will have some shares. Brock Purdy can be forced into mistakes with some pressure - we saw that in the Baltimore game. The Niners' defense will likely be over-owned based on their reputation and being heavy home favorites - no thanks.
Top Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, George Kittle
Secondary Plays: Brock Purdy, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave
Sunday's Games
Tampa Bay @ Detroit (49 O/U)
Both teams are coming off impressive wins, but the Lions took down a team that was in much better form as they held on to beat the Rams 24-23 and the Bucs took advantage of a totally discombobulated Eagles team.
I don't want to take anything away from the Bucs, but I still see some holes on this team that could be exposed this week, including their lack of a run game against good defensive fronts - and the Lions have a front seven that can shut down Rachaad White and company (just ask Kyren Williams).
So we should see Baker Mayfield throwing it plenty this week and he makes a fine option for lineups, especially with his price as he's one of the cheapest options on the slate. Detroit gave up some big plays to Puka Nacua last week and has been weaker on the outside than to slots and tight ends this year. That brings Mike Evans firmly into play here and likely elevates him above Chris Godwin and rookie Trey Palmer who both had touchdowns last week that were rather lucky (busted coverages and defenders running into each other, etc..) Evans has the best matchup grade on FTN this week and we know the type of big play potential he brings.
Cade Otton had a huge day for the Bucs last week and is still super cheap, I like him as a punt if you decide not to spend up for Kelce, Kittle, or Edwards.
For the Lions, it starts with Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They are probably one of my favorite stacks this week. St. Brown has 100+ yards in four of his last five games and the top matchup grade per PFF this week.
We saw Sam LaPorta play last week but he wasn't overly involved as most of his routes were right around the line of scrimmage and he ended up blocking a lot, too. Josh Reynolds was heavily targeted by Goff while Jameson Williams had only two catches. Williams is still a big-play threat for large field GPPs, but Reynolds at only 3700 on DK is one of the better values we have on the slate.
PFF has the Lions run game with the best advantage in the trenches this week, and I was puzzled as to why the Eagles didn't stick with the run longer last week. We could see either David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs put up a nice game if they find the end zone, but guessing which one gets it done can be maddening. Consider them both secondary plays for now.
Top Plays: Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans
Secondary Plays: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Cade Otton
Kansas City @ Buffalo (45.5 O/U)
This game should be freaking awesome as we get yet another Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes showdown. But oddly enough, I am bigger on both running games here than passing attacks.
The Chiefs have not been blowing teams out of the water this year with the same type of high-octane offense that we are used to. They've done it with good defense and a steady rushing attack led by Isiah Pacheco. The Bills can be run on and I'm confident the Chiefs will attempt to run the ball in this one, it's become more of their identity this year.
I have little interest in Mahomes this weekend, he simply hasn't been a slate-winning QB this season. We can still target Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce as one-offs, but I am not stacking the Chiefs.
The Bills are more stackable as Josh Allen is a much bigger rushing threat than Mahomes. Allen broke a 50-yard TD run last weekend and had more rushing + passing TDs than any QB this season.
Gabe Davis is going to miss again this week and Stefon Diggs has been slowed by an injury this week in practice. That certainly opens the door for Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir as cheap options for the Bills (both had receiving TDs last week against the Steelers).
I really like James Cook this week. I think the Bills will lean on him in the running game and look to get him going in the passing game, too. He had a big game against the Chiefs in Buffalo's win back in the regular season, too.
Top Plays: James Cook, Josh Allen, Travis Kelce
Secondary Plays: Isiah Pacheco, Khalil Skakir, Stefon Diggs, Rashee Rice, Dalton Kincaid
Cash Game Cores
DraftKings: McCaffrey, St. Brown, Otton
FanDuel: A. Jones, St. Brown, Kittle
Divisional DFS Slate Notes
Saturday Morning Updates:
Stay tuned for any additional info!
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Divisional Round
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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