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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an exciting AFC Wild Card matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. Tua Tagovailoa makes his playoffs debut and Tyreek Hill is looking to make an impact at Arrowhead Stadium. The Dolphins will face some trouble as Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle are currently questionable for Saturday. Patrick Mahomes looks to make another Super Bowl run while having his weakest receiving core yet in his career. Which AFC team will come out on top in what should be an exciting matchup?
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Dolphins vs. Chiefs Saturday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on January 13. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @SEvansDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Tyreek Hill - WR, $19,200 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 119 receptions, 1,799 receiving yards, 13 receiving touchdowns
- Projection: 7 receptions, 10 targets, 100 receiving yards, 0.4 touchdowns
Tyreek Hill is ready to shine in another playoff run but this time with Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. With a difficult matchup versus the Kansas City Chiefs, Hill will have to put in the work. His co-star, Jaylen Waddle, is currently questionable for the Saturday showdown. If Waddle gets ruled out, all-in on Tyreek Hill becomes a must. He has a target share of 31% on the season with a 76% route share.
In the November 5 matchup, Hill recorded eight receptions on 10 targets for 62 yards but was unable to find the end zone. With Waddle being out the final two games of the regular season, Hill saw double-digit targets. He recorded 12 targets in Week 17 and 13 in Week 18. His target share went from low 30% to 50%. He will be a favorable target no matter what but the ceiling can get higher with potential offensive weapons being ruled out.
Tyreek Hill has been a model of consistency over the last 3 seasons 🙌 @cheetah
- 349 receptions (1st in the NFL)
- 4,748 receiving yards (1st)
- 29 receiving TDs (T-3rd) pic.twitter.com/zapWzmh7Xg— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $17,700 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 401 completions, 597 attempts, 4,183 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 75 rushing attempts, 389 rushing yards
- Projection: 33 attempts, 22 completions, 233.2 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns
This may be one of the most difficult playoff runs for Patrick Mahomes as the weapons for the Kansas City Chiefs are not the most appealing. Mahomes does have a matchup that could benefit him if the weather doesn't get too out of control. The Miami Dolphins rank 14 when it comes to passing yards but they rank 25 when it comes to passing touchdowns. Give Mahomes the opportunity and he will find success in the red zone.
We get an upside from Patrick Mahomes as he can move out of a broken pocket. While the number isn't as high as other quarterbacks, he has scrambled 8% on the season with a 35% inside the five-yard line attempt. He had a season-high of 53 rushing yards in Week 16 versus the Las Vegas Raiders. In the November 5 matchup versus Miami, he rushed for 24 yards on six attempts but had one fumble lost. With a total of 43.5 points in this game, we can expect Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa to go back and forth.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tua Tagovailoa, Rashee Rice, De'Von Achane (If Raheem Mostert is out)
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Travis Kelce - TE, $8,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 93 receptions, 984 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
- Projection: 6.4 targets, 5 receptions, 52.6 receiving yards, 0.3 touchdowns
Travis Kelce has had a very odd season to go along with the Kansas City Chiefs' struggles. He had a slow start to the season but looked like last year's version of himself in Weeks 6 and 7 only to go down an inconsistent streak afterward. Kelce finished the season with three poor performances where he logged 28 receiving yards in Week 15, 44 yards in Week 16, and 16 yards in Week 17. He's had an overall down season to where even where his target share has hit a 20% low.
Now getting to face the Dolphins, Travis Kelce should start the playoffs with some fireworks, unlike his November 5 performance. The Dolphins currently rank 16th in receiving yards versus opposing tight ends but rank 21st in receiving touchdowns and 21st in receptions. With limited options on offense, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice should be able to find ways to feast.
Rashee Rice - WR, $10,200 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
- Projection: 8.1 targets, 6.4 receptions, 75.5 receiving yards, 0.4 touchdowns
Rashee Rice has turned into a consistent weapon for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Rice did have a slow start to the season with just four games of 50 receiving yards or more in the first 10 games. He dominated the second half of the season. He finished the last six games with five receptions or more and logged three of his seven touchdowns in those six games. However, he was inactive for Week 18 as the Chiefs had already locked up their playoff spot.
When it comes to target share, Rashee Rice finished strong with shares above 20% or more in his final six games with 32% in Week 12 and 29% in Week 13. The trust has been solidified between himself and Mahomes. Facing the Dolphins defense, Rice should find some opportunities for himself as the Dolphins rank 22nd. They rank 26th against opposing receivers when it comes to receiving yards and 24th in receptions. While the weather conditions may be freezing, Rice should be a top priority when it comes to pairing a pass catcher with Patrick Mahomes in lineups.
Rashee Rice is the YAC King 👑 pic.twitter.com/MMFwAwbk5w
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) January 3, 2024
Other Flex Options: Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Waddle
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Cedrick Wilson Jr. - WR, $4,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 22 receptions, 296 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns
- Projection: 1 target, 0.7 receptions, 6.9 receiving yards
The NFL playoffs call for players to step up in big moments and Cedrick Wilson Jr. may have that opportunity Saturday. If Jaylen Waddle is ruled out alongside Raheem Mostert, Wilson Jr. or Braxton Berrios would be the players to roll the dice on. He currently has a very depressed projection with 0.7 receptions for 6.9 receiving yards. However, in the final five games of the season, he had three or more targets in each game. He even found the end zone in Week 17 where he had two receptions for 27 receiving yards versus a tough Baltimore Ravens defense. Overall, when Cedrick Wilson Jr. gets his name called, he shows up. In the 11 games that he has played this season, only two of those games he put up two receiving yards or less.
Justin Watson. - WR, $4,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 27 receptions, 460 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns
- projection: 2.2 targets, 1 reception, 17.9 receiving yards, 0.1 touchdowns
Justin Watson provides salary relief when it comes to stacking the Kansas City Chiefs and he has a decent upside. Besides Week 18 where he only saw one target, Watson had three games with three or more targets before then. He recorded his third touchdown of the season in Week 16 versus the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day and he had his second-most targeted game of the season with six targets. His target share has been disappointing as it is just 9% on the season. However, the Chiefs have rolled out multiple receivers while trying to give Mahomes a more consistent receiving core. Mixing that in with the troubles, Justin Watson does bring some risk with his projection.
Other Value Options: Jason Sanders, Harrison Butker, Braxton Berrios
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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