RADIO
I hope you all had a nice Christmas spending time with family and in front of your TVs watching games. It was a marathon sports day, with five NBA games and three NFL games. After last night's nine-game slate, we have a smaller selection with six games tonight.
As we head towards the new year, the strategy for me is to stay the same. I generally like to pick two to three games in a given slate and give a single pick on each game. I went 0-2 on my single-game picks last Friday but did cash a moneyline parlay at +181 to salvage the night.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, December 27. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13!
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Milwaukee Bucks (-4) @ Brooklyn Nets (240.5 total)
The Bucks come into this game off of a Christmas Day loss to the New York Knicks. Milwaukee fell behind early, and Jalen Brunson cooked them for 38 points.
This is a good bounce-back spot for the Bucks, with the Nets on the second leg of a back-to-back. I'm targeting the Bucks in the first quarter to get off to a quick start. In December, the Bucks are the highest-scoring first-quarter team, scoring 35.6 points. Brooklyn is outside of the top 15, scoring 27.6. They also have shot 56.1 percent on field goal attempts and 46.6 percent from three, which are both tops in the league.
Only two of their 11 games have been on the road this month, but they are still averaging 31.5 points on 50.0% FG and 42.1% from distance in those two games. Milwaukee shot 3-for-9 from three and only had two free throw attempts on Monday. Damian Lillard got off to a slow start in the Knicks loss. He only hit one out of four attempts from three in the opening 12 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 12 first-quarter points against the Nets in Brooklyn on November 6.
Milwaukee lost that first quarter on November 6, 32-29, after only shooting 3-for-11 from three. Brooklyn hit on 5-of-12 attempts.
Brooklyn does give up fewer points per game in the first than Milwaukee, but they also allow a lot of three-point attempts. Per FantasyPros, the Nets give up the fourth-most points to point guards and the most threes per game. That, to me, reads as a good game script for Damian Lillard. I also like this for Brook Lopez, who isn't shy about letting it fly. Lopez only had four points on 2-for-6 shooting against his former team last meeting; I think he'll look to start more aggressively.
Giannis is questionable to play, but even if he doesn't, I still like Milwaukee's first quarter here.
The pick: Bucks First Quarter -1.5 (-105 FanDuel)
Toronto Raptors (-6.5) @ Washington Wizards (239 total)
I'm betting against another team on a back-to-back with the Washington Wizards. My angle here is on the first half, with the hope Washington has tired legs. Washington does score decently in the first half, especially at home, but I can never realistically trust them.
Toronto can be offensively challenged at times, but I'm relying on their defense in this spot. In the opening 24 minutes of games, the Raptors are in the top 15 in points allowed, the top 12 in field goal attempts, and the top 10 in three-point attempts.
Washington gives up the most field goal attempts and is in the bottom three for points allowed in the first half. According to FantasyPros, Washington gives up the most points to small forwards and the sixth-most points to power forwards. It's a very favorable matchup for the Raptors' two best players, Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam.
The Raptors rebound the ball well and rack up assists. Washington is dead last in the first half in both of these categories.
Two other areas in which Toronto has an edge are points in the paint and second-chance points. The Raptors are a top-six paint-scoring offense, while Washington is a bottom-five defense. Washington is also in the bottom five in second-chance points allowed. Toronto is a below-average second-chance points team, but they rebound well enough that they should be able to take advantage of it tonight.
The Pick: Raptors First Half -3.5 (-110 BetMGM)
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Phoenix Suns (-2) @ Houston Rockets (225.5 total)
There's been a lot of tension in Phoenix lately, and winning cures all. Houston is another team on the second leg of a back-to-back that I'm attacking. This feels like a mildly important game for the Suns to create positive momentum.
The Rockets come into this game off of a 123-117 loss at home to the Indiana Pacers. Houston has been vulnerable on defense in the last five games, allowing 119.4 points per game. This is far off from the 108.3 they allow per game this season. There could be some defensive regression, and a motivated duo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker is a scary matchup for any defense.
Phoenix has been unimpressive on offense this month, but give me those two guys in a one-game scenario, and I'll take it. Grayson Allen and Chimezie Metu are both coming off big Christmas Day performances. Hopefully, those performances will build some confidence for them tonight. Eric Gordon should also be extra motivated to face his former franchise.
Rockets forward Dillon Brooks left Tuesday night's game with an abdominal injury. It would be huge for Durant and Booker if Brooks sat, as he'd likely be the primary defender for them throughout the game.
We know these guys see everything people say about them. It's time to quiet the public for a night.
The Pick: Suns ML (-130 DraftKings)
Favorite Teaser: NYK +8 - PHI +6.5 (+100 FD)
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