RADIO
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Matchday 13 turned out to be an unlucky one. Our seven-week winning streak was snapped, albeit barely. And after a decent Saturday, the Sunday and Monday games proved to really sting. We still managed to have some nice FPL plays and remain comfortably in the black for the whole season, so it's time to dust ourselves off and go again.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Saturday, December 2, 2023
Arsenal (-330) vs. Wolves (+850) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 0 Wolves
Arsenal's late winner at Brentford saw them return to the top of the table and made it back-to-back wins following their lone loss this season. Wolves found themselves on the wrong end of more VAR controversy in suffering a fourth defeat on their travels. Rather than sitting in the top half of the table, they're entrenched in the bottom half due to some poor officiating.
Arsenal's not been at their fluid best so far but have been finding ways to win games. In their seven home games, Arsenal's scored at least two in six of them and kept a clean sheet in two of their last three at home. Wolves have only picked up seven points from seven away games despite only facing one side in the top half of the table on the road (losing 1-0). All seven points came at teams in the bottom five.
FPL Pick: Bukayo Saka
Saka is the third-highest points-scoring midfielder (79) without being at his best this season. The winger continues to conjure up assists, registering one in four of his last five games. He's only got 0.17 xG (expected goals) himself in his last six games but as long as he keeps creating goals and chances, he'll maintain his FPL value. Saka is certainly not short of admirers.
Brentford (-215) vs. Luton Town (+550) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 Luton Town
Brentford's home defeat against Arsenal was only their second home loss in seven games. It made it consecutive losses coming off of a three-game winning streak. Luton's first home EPL win moved them four points clear of the relegation zone. Even at this early stage, that will be a significant psychological boost for the preseason favorites to be relegated.
Last weekend was the first time this season that Brentford failed to score at home. They still had 1.1 xG so it wasn't like they were comfortably held at bay. They may have only lost two of their seven home games but also have won only two, keeping just one clean sheet. Since Matchday 3, all but one of Luton's games have been decided by one goal. They've not been blown away and I expect them to put up a fight again this weekend.
FPL Pick: Bryan Mbeumo
Mbeumo has blanked in his last two games but they were against Liverpool (third) and Arsenal (first). Prior to that, he had two goals and three assists in three games. Although he's failed to tally a goal involvement in his last two games, Mbeumo still had 1.4 xGI (expected goal involvements) in the two games so he continued to be a threat. Brentford's upcoming schedule should mean Mbeumo is heavily transferred in over the next few weeks.
Burnley (-115) vs. Sheffield United (+310) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Burnley 1 – 0 Sheffield United
A sixth consecutive defeat ensured Burnley remained rooted to the foot of the table. The aggregate score in those six games is 4-16 and they are yet to keep a clean sheet. Sheffield United got comprehensively beaten at home to Bournemouth and sit just one point above Burnley. They did manage to score for a third consecutive game.
The league's worst home record faces the league's worst away record. These two have a combined -45 goal difference but I'm more confident in Burnley picking up a first home win of the season. They have a -5.1 xGD (expected goal difference) at home, much better than their -15 GD. This is a game that could come down to who takes their chances, something both have struggled with. I'll give the home team a slight edge.
Graphic courtesy of WhoScored.com
FPL Pick: Josh Brownhill
This is a game (and two teams) I'm not targeting in FPL but Brownhill does represent an intriguing option. He leads the team in shot-creating actions (30) and has picked up two goals this season. He's Burnley's primary free-kick and corner taker while Sheffield United's six goals conceded from set pieces are third-most in the league. In what could be a tight and nervy game, a set play might make the difference.
Nottingham Forest (+165) vs. Everton (+170) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Everton
Forest's third defeat in four games has left them lingering in the bottom half of the table. The lack of progress this season has resulted in manager Steve Cooper coming under pressure and reportedly being on the hot seat. Everton failed to turn a sense of injustice over their 10-point deduction into a positive performance. The 3-0 loss last Sunday has left them five points adrift from safety.
Last weekend was Forest's first home defeat this season but they have won just two of six at The City Ground. Everton's taken more points (10) away from home than Forest has at home (nine). The negativity surrounding both teams might actually benefit the visitors this weekend and Everton's only defeats on the road came against the sides currently in third and fourth in the table. I fancy the Toffees to head home with all three points on Saturday.
FPL Pick: Jack Harrison
Harrison let me down last weekend after I picked him, but did have 0.55 xG in the game. He's tallied three assists in his last six games, alternating one with a blank so he's due another assist on Saturday if that pattern remains. Each of Everton's previous away games saw Harrison assist a goal and his service cutting in from wide could be a deciding factor.
Newcastle United (-110) vs. Manchester United (+280) - 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 – 1 Manchester United
Newcastle put their loss at Bournemouth behind them last weekend, dispatching Chelsea with relative ease. Their midweek efforts (and late disappointment) might leave an already stretched squad a bit tired heading into this weekend. Manchester United suffered their own midweek European disappointment after a comprehensive weekend win. Both teams know a win will move them into the top five, for at least 18 hours.
Manchester United's picked up more points (15) in the last six games than any other team. However, last Sunday was the first time this season they won a game by more than one goal. Newcastle's only home blemish came against Liverpool, which is the only home game in which they've conceded more than one. Both teams' midweek exertions could play a factor and I feel the two teams might end up canceling each other out.
FPL Pick: Alexander Isak
Isak returned from injury to score in last weekend's win before finding the net again on Tuesday. He's now scored four goals in his last three starts in the EPL and has seven goals in seven starts (nine appearances) this season. With Callum Wilson still sidelined through injury, Isak will be relied upon to keep scoring and I wouldn't bet against him doing so again on Saturday.
Sunday, December 3, 2023
Bournemouth (+245) vs. Aston Villa (+100) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 3 Aston Villa
Back-to-back wins and three in four games have seen Bournemouth distance themselves from the relegation zone. Their one defeat in that time was a 6-1 loss against Manchester City so they're still liable for a walloping. Villa's away form has been a bit sketchy but an impressive come-from-behind victory at Tottenham solidified their top-four credentials. It was only the second time Villa scored more than once in an away game.
If this was at Villa Park, I'd comfortably back a home win. Villa's away record doesn't fill me with complete confidence but even at these odds, a top-four team to beat a side in the bottom five seems too good to pass up. Two of Bournemouth's three wins came against sides in the bottom three so outside of their win against Newcastle, they've yet to really compete against the top sides.
FPL Pick: Leon Bailey
This is more of a pick for future games given the upcoming schedule. Villa faces Arsenal and Manchester City in their next two games but following that, they have some fantasy-friendly fixtures. With Nicolò Zaniolo struggling for form and fitness, Bailey could find himself in the side more often. Despite only two starts this season, he's got three goals and three assists. He's someone I'd have on my watchlist and be starting this weekend.
Chelsea (-145) vs. Brighton (+340) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 3 Brighton
Chelsea's games continue to be bonkers and unpredictable. Their last three games have seen a total of 18 goals (nine for and nine against). This will be their fourth consecutive game against a team in the top eight in the table. Brighton ended a three-game drawing streak and picked up their first win since Matchday 6. They had only scored more than one goal once since then.
The only thing I'm confident about in this game is there will be goals. Chelsea's last five games have averaged 4.8 goals while all of Brighton's games this season have seen both teams score. Chelsea's home record hasn't been good, winning just one of their seven games at Stamford Bridge. Brighton's return to winning ways last weekend might have given them enough of a boost to add to Chelsea's home misery this weekend.
FPL Pick: Evan Ferguson
It's not an easy task predicting who will start for Brighton. But after getting Brighton's first goal last weekend (his sixth of the season), I expect Ferguson to make the starting XI on Sunday. His six goals have come despite having 3.0 xG as he's proving to be an expert finisher. In a game that could offer up plenty of chances at both ends, Ferguson will likely take one that's presented to him.
Liverpool (-400) vs. Fulham (+850) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 0 Fulham
Liverpool's fourth draw away from home (seven games) prevented them from moving to the top of the table. But a comeback draw at Manchester City is nothing to be sniffed at and they head back to Anfield where they have a 100% record. Fulham needed some controversial decisions to go their way on Monday, which ended a four-game winless run. Their only away win this season came on Matchday 1.
Liverpool's home form has been imperious. Six wins in six games, scoring three goals in five of them while only conceding two goals have made Anfield a fortress again. Fulham's 6.7 xG away from home is the fourth-lowest in the league and they needed two questionable penalties to beat Wolves on Monday. All signs point to a comfortable home win on Sunday.
FPL Pick: Mo Salah
Salah at home is the easiest captain pick in FPL. He's scored a total of eight goals at home, finding the net in all six home fixtures. He scored in both games against Fulham last season and has four goals in six appearances against them for Liverpool. He's not blanked at home since Gameweek 21 last season. Given Liverpool's upcoming schedule and the African Cup of Nations in January, you won't get many better chances to captain Salah until mid-February.
West Ham United (+100) vs. Crystal Palace (+270) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 1 Crystal Palace
West Ham needed a late fightback to get a much-needed win. They come into this weekend on the back of consecutive wins which followed a seven-game stretch in which they picked up just four points. Palace's fourth defeat in five games saw them slide further down the table. They've now conceded 11 goals in their last five games after conceding just seven goals in their first eight games.
West Ham may need to do without top-scorer Jarrod Bowen again but they've scored at least two goals in each of their last three games. Both teams have scored in 11 of West Ham's 13 games. Palace's attacking injury crisis is easing but they're leaking goals. They have only scored twice in an away game once and that was against Burnley but have only blanked once on the road. I can make a case for a draw but expect West Ham to win still.
FPL Pick: Mohammed Kudus
Two assists last weekend took Kudus' goal involvement tally to five despite starting just four games so far. Only one of the five came at home but Kudus has now started each of West Ham's last four EPL games. If Bowen is out, the Ghanaian international will be relied upon heavily but either way, I expect him to continue his recent form against a defense that's been shipping in goals of late.
Manchester City (-340) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+750) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 1 Tottenham Hotspur
City's league form has been pretty up-and-down lately. Two losses were followed by three wins and then two draws yet they're still only one point off top spot. Tottenham started the season by going 10 games unbeaten but now come into this weekend on the back of three straight defeats. They will still be without their first-choice center-back duo and James Maddison this week, making their task even tougher.
City's scored in all but one game this season and their 33 goals scored leads the league. They have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven games but have scored 16 goals during their five-game unbeaten run. Tottenham has scored in every game this season but have conceded eight goals in their last three games. Their high defensive line could be exposed by City and a fourth consecutive defeat for Tottenham appears the likeliest outcome.
FPL Pick: Jérémy Doku
Erling Haaland at home against a questionable defense makes him a worthy captain. But Doku should not be discounted as an alternative option. The winger tallied four assists at home to Bournemouth, regularly beating their press and finding space in the final third. He's one player that can get in behind and expose Tottenham's defense. He doesn't need a goal involvement to pick up maximum bonus points, offering us a nice floor, too.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Arsenal 2 – 0 Wolves | Arsenal -330 | U2.5 +115 | No -140 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 Luton | Brentford -215 | O2.5 -140 | Yes -115 |
| Burnley 1 – 0 Sheff United | Burnley -115 | U2.5 -125 | No -105 |
| Notts Forest 1 – 2 Everton | Everton +170 | O2.5 +105 | Yes -135 |
| Newcastle 1 – 1 Man United | Draw +275 | U2.5 +110 | Yes -160 |
| Bournemouth 1 – 3 A. Villa | A. Villa +100 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -215 |
| Chelsea 2 – 3 Brighton | Brighton +340 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -180 |
| Liverpool 3 – 0 Fulham | Liverpool -400 | O2.5 -250 | No -105 |
| West Ham 2 – 2 C. Palace | Draw +250 | O2.5 -105 | Yes -135 |
| Man City 3 – 1 Tottenham | Man City -340 | O2.5 -275 | Yes -145 |
| Season totals | 71/130 | 71/130 | 76/130 |
| Season parlays | 2/13 (-5.27u) | 4/13 (+8.21u) | 6/13 (+18.93u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
