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Each year, most of the top draft picks are automatic in every fantasy draft. The superstar players are easy to pick out and most of the time you can't go wrong with whatever superstar falls to your team when it's your turn to pick. Every superstar is going to post great numbers and it establishes the type of build that would best fit the personnel.
Where the draft, and a lot of times the league, takes a turn is the later rounds and how each fantasy manager utilizes them. Do they reach for guys who might not deserve it or do they find the golden sleepers that everyone else is looking for? Sleepers can be hard to predict at times because the only thing managers are basing it on is potential. Those players who could really explode on the scene if they were just given some more opportunities or found their way on a team that utilizes them in the best way possible.
Instead of pondering over the sleepers, let's take a look at five potential candidates for the forward position. These players are ones that can outperform their average draft position in the later stages of fantasy drafts. Ones that could potentially take your roster to the next level in deeper leagues which contain usually 12 or more teams. Here are five deep league sleepers for the 2023-24 NBA season.
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Obi Toppin, PF - Indiana Pacers
So, remember when we just talked about players that could potentially blow up if they were just given more opportunities? Well, it looks like Obi Toppin fits the mold of that prototype. The 25-year-old escaped the New York Knicks and is now part of the Indiana Pacers where he's likely to see increased minutes and opportunities. As of right now, he's even the starting power forward on the depth chart.
The former Dayton Flyer was known for his athletic ability, scoring efficiency, solid rebounding, and willingness to stretch the floor while in college. While with the Knicks, he didn't gain the trust of the coaching staff quickly enough to see the floor all that often. He saw the most minutes in the 2021-22 season when he averaged 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.1 assists across 17.1 minutes per game. Which, by the way, is good enough for a 120 offensive rating and a per-36 equivalent of 19.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks.
He can act as the three-point outlet, as shown by his 40% shooting from three on the right wing, 36.1% from the right corner, and 35.3% from the top of the floor. At the same time, he can give fantasy managers some great scoring efficiency as he shoots 62.7% in the paint compared to the league average of 60.3%.
So, with an ADP of 138.7, grabbing someone with the upside in points, rebounds, threes, and field goal percentage could be a great move.
Paul Reed, PF/C - Philadelphia 76ers
Paul Reed not only has one of the best nicknames in the league, but he also received one of the biggest confidence boosts out of any backup out there with just a mere coaching change. Under Doc Rivers, Reed couldn't get more than 7.9 minutes per contest until this past season when Sixers fans essentially bullied Rivers into playing him more. Now, head coach Nick Nurse is talking about utilizing the fourth-year forward similar to how Pascal Siakam was used in Toronto.
That's a huge difference compared to getting splinters while riding the bench for most of his first three years. Despite averaging a double-double, shooting above 50% from the floor, 73.8% from the free throw line, swiping 1.9 steals per game, and collecting 2.6 blocks per game in his final year at DePaul, Rivers didn't see the value in giving him minutes. Let's not forget that Joel Embiid's backups aren't even close to reliable players in real life or fantasy, which makes Reed's job even more important.
All through training camp and preseason, Nurse and Reed spoke nothing but good things about his improvement and how his role is going to evolve. Last year, in the six games that he played 20-29 minutes, he averaged 11.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. In the two games that he played north of 30 minutes, he averaged 15.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 blocks per contest, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Reed is likely to see around 20 minutes per contest this season and with his efficiency, he should see a sizable boost in his traditional numbers. "Bball Paul" is going to produce some great value for points, rebounds, steals, and efficiency as a late-round pick in deep leagues. His current ADP on Yahoo is 145.0 and he's only been drafted in 55% of leagues so far.
Jeremy Sochan, PF - San Antonio Spurs
Head coach Gregg Popovich brought out the Point Sochan experience last year and that won't be falling to the wayside just because Victor Wembanyama was added to the team. Coach Pop has already confirmed that Sochan will be starting at point guard to start the season alongside Devin Vassell in the backcourt.
Sochan posted 11.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 45.3% from the floor in his first year. He may have had some growing pains in his rookie season but found his way onto the All-Rookie second team as he grew more comfortable with what was asked of him. He explored a mid-range game, attempted some threes, got to the free throw line, and improved his playmaking all through game experience.
Now, with an offseason where he was able to work on the things that the team wants, he'll be able to improve in more areas than one. On Yahoo, Sochan's ADP sits at 144.9 and he's drafted in just 18% of leagues despite the news of him in a starting role. This is a guy who put up six games with 20 or more points, 33 games with at least five boards, nine games with at least five assists, 30 games with at least one steal, and 19 games with at least a block.
Selecting him around the 12th or 13th round is a huge value, especially for a younger player showing growth under one of the best coaches of all time.
Caleb Martin, SF/PF - Miami Heat
If anyone is doubting the skill and value of Caleb Martin at this point, then they haven't been watching any Miami Heat games over the last couple of seasons. He was a key piece to their playoff success on their road to the NBA Finals and all the Heat did this offseason was lose other key role players and miss out on Damian Lillard
Martin is primed for an even bigger role as he enters his age-28 season. He already started in 49 of his 71 games last year and he'll likely see a similar amount at the very least. The only (kind of) new face coming in that could possibly take some minutes is Josh Richardson, who is already considered day-to-day.
Martin averaged 12.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and just shy of 1.0 steals per game in the postseason. He also shot 52.9% from the floor and 42.3% from deep. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has shown confidence in him during big situations which only does wonders heading into a season where he's likely to get more opportunities.
Martin's ADP currently sits at 144.1 and he's only getting drafted in 17% of leagues. In these deeper leagues, any sort of contributor in the late rounds is going to be valuable. Someone getting 29 or more minutes per contest is going to help tremendously and Martin has the talent to outperform a lot of people ahead of him in that draft range.
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF - Atlanta Hawks
Let's say you get through toward the end of the draft and a lot of these forwards have already been selected. Could I possibly interest you in a young, high-upside option who is in line to see even more minutes after a solid sophomore season in a reserve role? If your answer was yes, then let's talk about Jalen Johnson.
Johnson has an incredible mixture of athleticism, size, and talent, especially for a player who's getting drafted around the 144th pick in fantasy drafts. On depth charts, he's listed as the primary backup to Saddiq Bey, but the Hawks rotation is far from set in stone. They've been rumored to make some changes at center and it wouldn't be surprising to anyone if Johnson plays his way into a starting role.
Just like we talked about the point-Sochan experience, Johnson has point-forward skills that make him even more enticing as a late-round sleeper. He appeared in 70 games last year and played 14.9 minutes per contest. In that time, he posted 13.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes. His length forces opponents into tough shots while his basketball IQ allows him to serve as both a playmaker and a roller in pick-and-roll situations.
Jalen Johnson is quickly rising up the depth chart and he's been playing right around 20 minutes per game in the preseason. In category leagues, he could be the potential game-changer to push multiple categories over the edge when he sees more minutes.
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