NFL Underdog Fantasy Predictions - Week 4 DFS Prop Picks (Sunday Night Slate)

October 1, 2023

Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for Week 4 Sunday Night Slate (October 1, 2023). Use Shaun's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Underdog Fantasy.

Hello everybody, and welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for Week 4 - Sunday Night Football! The 2023 NFL season is finally underway, and that means our friends over at Underdog Fantasy have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of.

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Underdog Fantasy Over/Under DFS Props Contests

Underdog Fantasy is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play.

On the standard play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the insured play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

Before diving into some solid fantasy score totals this week, we must first cover the Underdog Fantasy scoring format. The format is PPR, which stands for "point per reception," meaning every reception is worth one point.

Rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points and passing touchdowns are worth four points. Each rushing or receiving yard is worth .1, meaning every 10 yards of either is worth one point. Quarterback passing yards are worth .04, which means every 25 passing yards are worth one point.

If you ever have questions, you can always click the "scoring chart" option above the player selections for each contest. Now, let's get to some solid fantasy score props for this week.

NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 4

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

Allen Lazard MORE than 32.5 receiving yards

The New York Jets offense is far from desirable when it comes to playing any of the receivers. With Zach Wilson under center, it all can be one chaotic mess. Allen Lazard followed his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to the team during the offseason but after a Week 1 injury, he's stuck with Wilson. However, Lazard has been targeted a decent amount through three weeks and the 32.5 receiving yards total is doable.

Using the Prop Tool, there is a 17.56% edge to take the over of 32.5 receiving yards, and for good reason. Besides Week 2, Lazard has been in on 100% of the routes ran for the offense. In Week 2, he was in 97%. Now, he is sitting at a target rate of 29% through three weeks but he's averaging four targets per game currently.

Zach Wilson LESS than 174.5 passing yards

The Proptimizer brings us this play, with an implied total of -120 (54.50%) of hitting for less than 174.5 yards passing by the New York Jets quarterback. Zach Wilson has struggled so far and this will be another challenge for him.

Through the first three weeks, Wilson has yet to throw for more than 170 passing yards. In Week 1, he threw for 140 yards after coming in for Aaron Rodgers after the first drive. In Week 2, he threw for 170 yards versus the Dallas Cowboys and threw only 157  yards in Week 3 versus the New England Patriots. The Jets do have weapons on offense for the young quarterback but nothing has gone right yet.

Skyy Moore LESS than 34.5 receiving yards

Skyy Moore has been an interesting target for Patrick Mahomes so far this season. After no targets in Week 1, Moore saw four targets in Week 2 and six in Week 3. Now, with a difficult matchup versus the New York Jets defense, there's a chance of being locked down. The Jets defense is the seventh-best defense when it comes to opposing receivers.

With the defense being on lockdown, Moore's routes share is one to be skeptical about. Through three weeks, he's averaging a 65% route share. Week to week, it has not been consistent. With Mahomes, he could lock onto one player for an entire game, causing the higher choice for Skyy Moore to be a risk play.

Jerick McKinnon MORE than 15.5 receiving yards

Jerick McKinnon may not be used all that much in the run game but has been in the passing game. Through three weeks, he has seen eight targets, of which he has caught seven. In Weeks 2 and 3, all six targets were 100% catchable. He has hit the over on 15.5 receiving yards now in the past two weeks and the total seems to be in reach once again.

Using the Proptimizer, there is an implied total of -122 (54.95%) of McKinnon reaching over it. That is the fourth-highest implied total for a prop in this Sunday night game.

Other Recommendations: Patrick Mahomes MORE than 17.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce MORE than 6.5 receptions

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