RADIO
Last weekend was the appetizer. Tonight and tomorrow are the soup and salad leading up to Saturday's 33-plate main course. We finish with dessert on Sunday and coffee on Monday. It's the great beginning of the last great college football season. Enjoy it while it lasts!
There are 17 games over the next two days, but only eight of them feature FBS vs. FBS teams. Most of the games between FCS and FBS schools aren't even on the major sportsbooks. Some sites will create a line for you if you ask, but it most certainly won't favor you. Since those are off the books anyway, I won't pick them either. I have to draw the line somewhere.
We will take a look at what went right and wrong in our appetizers and I will set us up for soup and salad tonight and tomorrow. Let's do this!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1 (8/31/23 and 9/1/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Kent State at Central Florida(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Whoa, whoa, whoa...wait a minute. What the hell am I missing here? I know UCF is now a Power-5 team, but come on! 42-7 doesn't even cover this and UCF hasn't allowed single-digit points in a game since October 30 of 2021. I know Kent is replacing much of the offense from last year, but it seems like people are forgetting how highly touted Michael Alaimo was coming out of high school. Things didn't work out for him at Purdue, but this feels like a good spot for him. UCF doesn't have the defense to cover this. Give me Kent.
North Carolina State(-14.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We don't know exactly what we are getting out of the Pack, but since I've talked up Brennan Armstrong to anyone who will listen, I better take them. That half has me lowering the bet though. UConn was solid down the stretch last year.
Nebraska at Minnesota(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line opened at -7 and is there across the board. I'll give the half here though. I don't know what we're getting out of Matt Rhule's Nebraska, but we are definitely not getting it on the road in a conference opener on opening night. Minnesota is tough and proven. On top of that, their receiver room is stacked and the backs aren't too shabby either. Gophers by 17 or so.
Florida at (14)Utah(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line plunged with the news that Cameron Rising probably won't play for Utah. He says he's playing, but the team says he's not. In a situation like this, go with what the team says. That leaves the offense in the hands of redshirt junior Bryson Barnes, who wasn't bad filling in for Rising last season. The backs are back. The receivers are back. The entire front seven is back. They even got Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman. This is way too low. I've watched Graham Mertz give away possessions like candy on Halloween for years in Madison. A move to Florida isn't going to make that go away.
Central Michigan at Michigan State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Peyton Thorne transferred out, so we get to see what Noah Kim is made of. The receivers are largely unproven for Sparty as well, but Jalen Berger is a good back. He might be able to cover his on his own. CMU lost too much to hang around here. Give me Sparty.
Miami(OH) at Miami(FL)(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I've waited for this to happen for ages, but I get the feeling that this won't be as good of a game as it would have been last year or a couple of years ago. The Redhawks have a healthy Brett Gabbert, but aside from TE Jack Coldiron, he wouldn't be able to pick his receivers (or his backs for that matter) out of a lineup. The Hurricanes have continuity and the weather on their side. Give me the Floridians.
Louisville(-7.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It could be double this and I would still take Louisville. This offense is going to look different than the last five years or so, but it's also going to look better. Jack Plummer isn't Malik Cunningham, but he doesn't have to be. The Cardinals loaded up on receivers in the portal and Jawhar Jordan is going to have a huge season.
Stanford(-3.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hawaii put on an impressive performance in Nashville in Week 0. That said, there is no way that Stanford can be as bad as they were last season. Right now, it looks like Ashton Daniels will start at QB for the Cardinal, but that leash is going to be short. E.J. Smith should be in for a big game, but I see too much unproven for Stanford. The fact that Hawaii already played a game and played well on the road has me leaning toward the Warriors here. I'll take Hawaii. I'm not confident enough to take it outright but I wouldn't be shocked either.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 0. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Navy vs. (13)Notre Dame(-20.5) at Dublin, Ireland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sam Hartman turned an out-of-sync Notre Dame offense into a juggernaut in a few short months.
Sam Hartman in his debut with the Fighting Irish ?
-19/23
-251 YDS
-4 TD pic.twitter.com/EzRbD0RL3s— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 26, 2023
UTEP(-1.5) at Jacksonville State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks made sure their first game at the FBS level was a memorable one, after they survived a nail-biter against Conference USA foe UTEP, 17-14. https://t.co/0wwnjjuC2t
— The Chanticleer (@ChanticleerJSU) August 27, 2023
This embodied everything that makes college football great. Most of the guys on that field won't play at another level, but they can say they were part of the Gamecocks' first FBS win in their first FBS game.
Massachusetts at New Mexico State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was 13-10 at the end of three quarters, then the teams combined for 48 points in the fourth quarter. Taisun Phommachanh is going to be fun to watch for the Minutemen this year. This wasn't nothing! The Aggies won a bowl game last year and coach Jerry Kill has the ink to prove it.
New Mexico state head coach Jerry Kill kept his promise to get a tattoo after winning the Quick Lane Bowl & looks ready to join Hell's Angels. ?️ pic.twitter.com/1k3fbiUkRX
— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) February 20, 2023
Ohio at San Diego State(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you don't enjoy watching Jalen Mayden play quarterback, you're watching the wrong game. In other news, the San Diego State stable of running backs is alive and well.
Hawaii at Vanderbilt(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't even feel like Vanderbilt played poorly. Hawaii made massive strides from September to November last year. We're going to find out that Vanderbilt is a pretty strong team. I think Hawaii is bowl-bound this year, so no, I'm not surprised that they almost won this. I am surprised that Jonah Panoke did not catch a pass and is now listed as a backup on the depth chart though.
San Jose State at (6)USC(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That USC offense is something. The USC defense is almost the inverse of that offense. The Spartans were only down seven at halftime and were in this game until the kickoff return for a touchdown by electric freshman Zachariah Branch took the momentum away from the Spartans.
ZACHARIAH BRANCH WHAT A DEBUT?
— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 27, 2023
Florida International at Louisiana Tech(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I love Smoke Harris, but aside from that, this was a lackluster opening for the Bulldogs. FIU isn't that much better than last year. They almost won this game with SINGLE-DIGIT passing yards. That's right...Grayson James completed five passes (on 14 attempts) for four yards. Woof!
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I started the season with my head above water with a 4-3 mark. After last season, I feel that I need to set an achievable goal. 55% proved to be out of reach last season, so this year I'm aiming for 52.5%.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 0-0 (0-0) = 0
2. 3-1 (3-1) = 4
3. 1-1 (1-1) = 0
4. 0-1 (0-1) = -4
5. 0-0 (0-0) = 0
I broke even on my betting this week (well...for the purposes of this article. I got a little too heavy on La Tech by the time the game kicked off). I am down 111 points after four years of adding the confidence points. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!
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