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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Denver Broncos.
With a new head coach and offensive coordinator, a potentially-healthy Javonte Williams for Week 1, and Russell Wilson entering his second year in Denver, can the Broncos rebound after a disastrous 2022 season?
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Broncos based on the current ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2023.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy may come off to some as an overhyped '23 breakout candidate in Denver’s highly-questionable offense. However, we'll warm on him here due to a lack of stronger options on the Broncos, perhaps besides second-round rookie Marvin Mims Jr. Third-year running back Javonte Williams (knee) would have also been a great bet here with Melvin Gordon out of the picture, if not for a Week 4 torn ACL last year. Williams’ early-season efficiency could be hampered until he is fully back to speed even if he is active in Week 1.
Jeudy enters his fourth season on the heels of banking career highs in receptions (67), receiving yards (972), and touchdowns (six). The 2020 first-round pick out of Alabama drew comparisons as a rookie to former first-rounders Jeremy Maclin and Reggie Wayne, the latter of whom experienced his breakout in Year 4.
Standing as the highest-selected wide receiver out of the ‘20 class still active in the NFL, Jeudy is still yet to fully break out despite a couple of promising seasons. Any hope of a full-on '22 breakout was dashed by a Broncos offense that scored fewer points (287) than any other team.
Jeudy essentially missed three full games a year ago after a Week 2 sternum injury cost him the majority of the contest. He then sustained a Week 10 ankle sprain early in the first quarter, limiting him to one route run. Nonetheless, Jeudy assembled 137.2 fantasy points in standard leagues, which ranked him as the overall WR18. This can’t be discounted considering how quarterback Russell Wilson (60.5% completion rate) torpedoed the entire offense’s stability.
A torrid '22 finish saw Jeudy somewhat quietly put up 18.3 full-PPR fantasy points per game over eight contests from Weeks 7 to 18 where he played at least 36% of the team’s offensive snaps. The 24-year-old graded as the overall WR6 across all formats in six games over Weeks 13 to 18 to salvage what initially appeared to be a lost year and arguably spike his ADP this summer. Jeudy carries a fairly-expensive fifth-round ADP on FFPC.
Jeudy generated 9.7 yards per target in '22 even with dysfunctional QB play. The versatile pass-catcher demonstrated far more of a rapport with Wilson than Courtland Sutton did, registering a 6.64 target quality rating, per PlayerProfiler. Jeudy ultimately stands as an upside WR2 choice who feels like a stronger ceiling proposition over the likes of veterans Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins, who tend to come off the board in this range.
Fantasy Football Bust: Courtland Sutton
We could have easily gone with Wilson here, but it’s fair to express confidence in Sean Payton’s ability to iron out his flaws. Despite raving camp reviews, I fear Courtland Sutton may have prematurely lost a step to ACL and MCL tears in '20. That significant setback has seemingly prevented the 2019 Pro Bowler from building on that breakout season. Since the injury occurred, Sutton is averaging a lukewarm 3.8 receptions for 50.2 yards in 32 games since 2021.
Fellow big-bodied wideout Alshon Jeffery also began a descent around Sutton’s current stage of his career as injuries began to pile up for him. Over Jeffery’s age-26 to age-30 campaigns, he averaged a similar 3.8 catches and 52.7 yards as a laundry list of setbacks apparently sapped his athleticism. I have a feeling a similar trajectory might be in store for Sutton as a boom-or-bust WR3/4 at this interval of his career.
Some fantasy experts may have anticipated the 27-year-old playing a similar role to D.K. Metcalf last season after Wilson linked up in the Mile High, but it never quite materialized. Sutton’s initial returns were encouraging, though, averaging 5.8 catches for 83.4 receiving yards from Weeks 1 to 5. However, he struggled as Denver's season spiraled out of control, failing to finish better than the overall WR25 in any of his 11 other healthy games.
Sutton’s PFF receiving grade has declined each year since ‘19. His target rate of 21.8% suggests an evident lack of separation and explosiveness. Sutton also logged just 132 yards after the catch across 15 games. The veteran may need to rely on his size as well as big plays to compensate for any potential loss of speed.
Despite appearing cemented as Denver’s No. 2 wide receiver in the wake of Tim Patrick's Achilles tear, I’m putting my eggs in the Greg Dulcich basket as Jeudy’s running mate in the Broncos' passing game in terms of targets. I’ll also fade Sutton across the board as anything more than a glorified dart throw near the end of 10-team drafts while carrying an 11th-round price tag. Target Quentin Johnston, Michael Thomas, Rashod Bateman, and Rondale Moore late in drafts instead.
Fantasy Football Lock: Samaje Perine
It was quite difficult to pinpoint a lock on a team that scored 16.9 points per game last year. But we might be hard-pressed to find a better lock than a 240-pound bruiser back here. It’s hard to discern at this time if Samaje Perine is a sheer handcuff. That’s been his identity over his Bengals career behind Joe Mixon. However, Perine showed extremely well when given the opportunity to handle the backfield load at times last season.
Perine could step into a featured role if Williams cannot ultimately get cleared for Week 1 action. If Denver takes it slow with their young runner even after he returns (likely), Perine could also maintain some standalone merit. Let's assume this is a temporary situation, and Williams eventually handles 15+ touches per game when he is fully recovered as the superior tailback overall.
That caveat still leaves Perine with excellent contingency upside as a power back who can catch (65 receptions over the past two years). In three outings embracing at least 70% of Cincinnati's offensive snaps last season, we can see the 27-year-old churned up a prolific 330 scrimmage yards on 63 total touches.
Despite a lack of explosiveness (1.1% breakaway run rate), there are not too many other ball carriers who would enter a three-down role like Perine's in scenarios where Williams cannot play. Don’t expect fantasy fireworks out of him, but Perine’s dependability makes him a lock for a substantial early-season role, albeit one that could diminish with each week that passes.
I’d still probably select Perine over Williams at this point as fantasy drafters fire up the hype train with Williams looking likely for a Week 1 return. It’s still unreasonable to expect Williams to handle lead-back duties until he’s at least a calendar year removed from such a significant knee injury. Moreover, Perine could signify a surefire sell-high option if he starts out of the gates hot while Williams comes along a bit slower.
Depending on the league format, we should consider choosing Perine ahead of names like Antonio Gibson, James Cook, and A.J. Dillon. Perine owns the clearest pathway to immediate value out of them. Consider cutting bait by the time September comes to a close.
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