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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of wide receivers to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which receivers' ADPs are falling and why?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position who have experienced notable fluctuations in their average draft positions using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers
Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants
There has been no real news coming straight from Hyatt during the last few weeks other than the young wideout signing a four-year pact with the Giants to start his pro career. Hyatt fell from the first round as some thought he could/should have been picked and into the third, where Big Blue snatched him late.
Hyatt led the collegiate ranks in QB rating when targeted, and he is now the WR3/WR4 of the Giants. The problem and the main reason for his ADP tanking of late can only be attached to the news of Sterling Shepard already running routes on the field at practice by the end of May. Shepard, remember, is recovering from an ACL suffered last season.
If/When Shepard is back and available, which is yet unknown when will happen, then he's most probably going to hit at least the third or fourth slot in the wideout pecking order. That, of course, will affect Hyatt's upside for the bad. And you know how a similar situation ended up for Kadarius Toney in 2021 and 2022.
There are so many unknowns in this offense, including the return or not of RB Saquon Barkley, that risking a pick on Hyatt at this point feels a bit risky. Not the gaudiest of ADPs, but I'd still fade the rookie. Obviously, if the ADP keeps tanking and you can add him for free/post-draft, then throwing a dart and taking the flier might make sense in some deeper formats, though.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
After experiencing a ridiculous (yet perhaps reasonable) rise in ADP following the Ravens' drafting Flowers to make him a prime target of newly-extended Lamar Jackson, the rookie has seen his ADP go in the total opposite direction of late following different news through the past few weeks.
As things stand, Flowers should be the WR3 of the Ravens behind veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and WR1 Rashod Bateman at least to start the year. The addition of Nelson Agholor through free agency might eat some from his target pie, but it's not that it should impact the freshman that much all things considered.
Flowers, though, will have to go against those WR1/WR2 teammates from the get-go by the looks of it. Bateman, who suffered injuries and would be tagged as "questionable" if the season started tomorrow, already has taken part in the team OTAs earlier this summer.
That said, the latest reports coming out of Baltimore's camps are speaking highly of Flowers with WR Coach Greg Lewis saying the rookie's "quickness and explosion show up daily," as well as Lamar Jackson reportedly quoted saying that he expects to throw the ball more times in 2023 while lowering the volume of rushing on the field.
Flowers looked like a strong rookie candidate to put up numbers in isolation, but even after we came to know his landing spot and the context, he'll find himself in as part of a Lamar-led offense in Baltimore things aren't looking any worse. If the ADP keeps falling we will easily "gamble" on Flowers.
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs
No pass-catcher part of the Chiefs' rotation should ever experience a drop in ADP, but this is the world we live in. Of course, Moore's ADP falling a few picks of late has more to do with rumors and out-of-his-control news other than his own actions.
Simply put, the Chiefs are reportedly in the run to land DeAndre Hopkins and even held talks with the former Cardinals wideout before the draft. We'll see how that ends, and where Hopkins plays football next season. If Kansas City ends up with him in their wide receiver room, then Moore's ADP would be in danger of tanking six feet under.
As things stand, Moore is the Chiefs' WR3 behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney. That's definitely not a strong receiving corps, but the Chiefs boast the absolute QB1 and TE1 of the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce respectively. Nuff said.
The Chiefs' skill-position players, outside of Kelce, are always going to be a boom/bust-type proposition because Mahomes can make anyone shine but you never really know who will eat each week. A 10+ round pick doesn't sound too crazy for Moore assuming he ends up in possession of the WR2/WR3 role of a hella strong offense like the Chiefs', but if the ADP bounces back up I'd hesitate about whether or not it'd be advisable to draft this man.
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