RADIO
Last year I was out on the Seahawks' passing game. After trading their franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, I thought the passing game was sure to decrease. While I did think Geno Smith was better than Drew Lock, I did not think Smith would throw for more yards than Wilson ever did. And I surely thought fading the Seahawks' receivers was the move. Oof.
A Pro Bowl season by Smith later, the Seahawks receivers were just as good as they were with Wilson. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf each finished as Top 16 receivers overall. Those who took the gamble on them – especially Lockett at a very depressed ADP – were greatly rewarded. Then the Seahawks selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba – mine and many others' WR1 in this draft class – as the 20th overall pick.
Since the draft, the narrative with the Seahawks receivers has been to fade Lockett and draft him last of this bunch. Metcalf is still going around where he was before the draft, meanwhile, JSN has climbed up the board, going second of this bunch. Is the market appropriately valuing this trio?
How Will Seattle’s Offense Look Differently in 2023
The one thing the draft has indicated for sure is that the Seahawks' offense will look different than it did in 2022. Last season the Seahawks ran 11 personnel (three wide receiver sets) on just 54 percent of plays. That ranked 25th in the NFL and was below the league average of 62 percent. Last season they ran two tight end sets 30 percent of the time, tied for the highest rate in the league.
After drafting Smith-Njigba, they seem like a lock to run more three wide receiver sets. The question that we will not know the answer to until the season actually begins is just how much more. I would anticipate a large jump, but there will still be plays when only two receivers are on the field. The belief that has led to Smith-Njigba getting drafted over Lockett is that he will take over as the season progresses and not only outperform Lockett, but even play over him.
The one thing that certainly is not changing? The head coach. Pete Carroll is a player's coach for a reason. He is highly loyal to his players. Lockett is the longest-tenured Seahawk, is a team captain, and has played at a high level for a long time for Carroll. Why does this matter? Because it will carve the path for Lockett to remain in two receiver sets. It would take JSN outplaying Lockett – and likely by a pretty wide margin – for that switch to occur this season.
Smith-Njigba is a very talented receiver. He was my WR1 in his draft class for a reason and brings a long-term upside, but I have a hard time seeing him leapfrogging Lockett in the pecking order this season. It's not like you can bank on an injury either. Lockett has played 127 of a possible 130 career games, while Metcalf has never missed a game in four seasons. The only way a switch like this would occur is if Lockett was to decline and fast. This leads to the next question – has he shown any signs of decline?
Has Lockett Shown Signs of Decline
Last season Lockett finished with 117 targets, 84 catches, 1,033 yards, and nine touchdowns. It was his fourth straight season with over 1,000 yards and with at least eight touchdowns. It was also his third time in four years with over 80 catches. Basically, if you looked at the back of his football card, nothing would stand out in the basic numbers. What about when you dive into the analytics?
Last season he averaged 2.1 yards per route, which is exactly what he has averaged over his last five seasons. His 23 percent target rate – which is the number of routes a player is targeted on – was his highest in any season since 2018. There was a decrease in his expected points added (EPA) last season. His 0.30 EPA per target and 0.7 EPA per route were both lows in that span. However, since there was a QB change it is only fair to look at the same numbers for Metcalf. Not only did Metcalf post a career low in EPA as a whole and on a per-target and route basis, but he posted lower rates than Lockett (more on that later).
The numbers do not show any signs of decline yet for Lockett. I understand that you can get old quickly in the NFL and Lockett will be turning 31 during the season. As a receiver who has always relied on efficiency, not showing any dip in the metrics is important. Plus, a change to 11 personnel may only help Lockett.
Last year in 11, Lockett averaged 1.9 yards per route, which is right on par with his five-year average. The league average in this formation was 1.6. His 23 percent target rate in this formation was a career-high. His 0.54 EPA per target and 0.12 EPA per route, were each his second-best in his last five seasons. His effectiveness actually dipped a bit in 12 personnel, showing that a move to 11 could boost his numbers.
Tyler Lockett vs DK Metcalf
The efficiency has not yet dipped for Lockett and unless he falls off a cliff, then a decrease in volume would have to come for the ADPs to make sense. Currently, Metcalf is getting drafted as the WR15, going 29th overall. Smith-Njigba is being drafted as the WR30, 60th overall. While Lockett goes last as the WR32, 65th overall. Not only am I advocating that Lockett is going too low and should be getting drafted ahead of JSN, but his ADP should be closer to Metcalf.
I get the thinking. No matter who is the WR2, Metcalf is a lock to play in two receiver sets. He is also a favorite target in the red/end zone. He has been reliable as of late and is younger than Lockett so you do not need to worry about age. One key element is being overlooked. If they are going to play more three-receiver sets and have a better third target than ever before then it is possible that both Metcalf and Lockett have some targets shaved off from their 2022 total. Metcalf is more volume reliant than Lockett, as Lockett has been the more efficient option of the two.
| Player | Yds/Route | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Target Rate | EPA/Tgt | EPA/Rt |
| Tyler Lockett | 2.1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 23.3% | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| DK Metcalf | 1.9 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 25.8% | 0.02 | 0.00 |
As you can see Lockett was more efficient at every metric, while Metcalf earned more volume. Additionally, Lockett had more end zone catches (six to five) despite significantly fewer end zone targets (22 to 9 in favor of Metcalf). It's a big reason why Lockett was the better fantasy asset – scoring more points despite seeing 24 fewer targets on the year.
The Verdict
Looking at the numbers and fantasy finishes and pairing them with the ADP, it shows that Metcalf is going close to full price. Smith-Njigba is the wild card pick, the one that can make some look very smart or very … not so smart. Lockett, unless he falls off of a cliff at 31 years old despite showing zero signs of slowing down last season, is the best buy of them all at the current price.
I understand wanting to be out a year early rather than a year late on a player, but JSN going ahead of Lockett indicates the expectation is that Lockett will decline and JSN will ascend and take over. The thinking is that the youngster can get hot late in the season and blossom into a potential league winner. You will not catch me saying he doesn’t have that potential, because I love his talent. However, I do not think he will get that opportunity because Lockett will still be performing at a high level.
If the volume is about to get spread out a little bit, Metcalf is in jeopardy of taking a hit as well, but the ADP does not indicate so. If the volume is spread out, the best bet is the receiver who has made a career being uber-efficient on a per route, target, and catch basis.
The fantasy community has seemingly written off Lockett in the last couple of years. I learned from my mistake last year and will not be doubting him until he gives us an actual reason to do so. The market dip on Lockett is a great thing for those who still believe in him. It allows Lockett to continue to be a value in drafts and the more he falls, the less risk there is drafting him!
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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