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Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Thursday, May 11th, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back. At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.
The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total.
You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry, or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.
NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool, and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Kevin Durant OVER 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
I'll start off the day with Kevin Durant's points, rebounds, and assists prop. Durant has surpassed this projection in two of his last five games, averaging 46.4 PRA during that span.
The Pheonix Suns will be returning home tonight to take on the Denver Nuggets, currently down 3-2. It's a win-or-go-home situation, and Chris Paul (groin) is once again likely to remain out. In the last three games without Paul, Durant has averaged 51 PRA, and tonight, in an elimination game, I expect him to play nearly the full game, and stuff the stat sheet.
The books like Durant to go over 45.5 PRA with -130 odds, while some books have him listed at 46.5 with -120 odds on the over, giving us a one-point margin here. I am expecting a big game from Durant tonight, as the Suns attempt to force a game seven.
Jamal Murray OVER 6 Assists
Next, I'll be looking at Jamal Murray's assists prop. Murray has either gone over or pushed this projection in four of his last five games, averaging seven assists during that span.
In game four, the most recent away game for the Nuggets, Murray logged seven assists. Behind Nikola Jokic, Murray has been 2nd in passes made for the team with 51 passes last game, logging for six assists, and 65 the previous game, logging for seven assists. Tonight, I am expecting at least six assists with upside to hit 7-plus.
The books have Murray at -215 odds in favor of Murray going over 5.5 assists, but here we are getting him at six, showing great push potential. My prop model supports this play, projecting Murray for 6.7 assists. I expect Murray to push at the minimum with great upside to hit the over as well.
Jayson Tatum OVER 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
I'll finish things off with Jayson Tatum's points, rebounds, and assists prop. Tatum has exceeded this projection in three of his last five games, averaging 42.6 PRA during that span.
The Boston Celtics are currently fighting for their lives after an unexpected game-five loss, putting them down 3-2. I am sticking with the stars tonight for a game with the Celtics' season on the line, and there is no one better to go to than Tatum. Whether or not the Celtics win, I expect Tatum to put up a fight. He should see more volume and usage than normal considering the stakes here tonight.
The books have Tatum at -130 odds to go over 44.5 PRA, while some books have him at 45.5 with -130 odds on the under, giving us a one-point margin. Can Tatum's efforts keep the Celtics' season alive? I'm betting they will!
Other Recommendations:
- Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 RA
- James Harden OVER 15 RA
- Devin Booker OVER 31.5 Points
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Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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