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Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Sunday, May 7th, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.
The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total.
You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry, or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.
NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
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Marcus Smart OVER 16.5 Points + Assists
I'll start off the day with Marcus Smart's points and assists prop. Smart has exceeded this projection of 16.5 points and assists in four of his last five games, averaging 18.6 PA during that period. Moreover, he has been over this projection in all three games of the series against the Philadelphia 76ers, averaging 18.3 PA so far.
Smart has been carrying a nice workload in this series, playing 35 minutes in two out of three games, only going under 35 minutes in a massive blowout game. Since the Boston Celtics are currently up 2-1, we should expect a close and competitive game, with Smart receiving the appropriate workload. The spread is only -2, so there is minimal fear of a blowout.
The odds favor Smart surpassing 16.5 PA, with -145 odds, while some books have his line set at 17.5 PA, with odds leaning towards the under, giving us a one-point margin. I anticipate a close game where all starters remain involved, allowing Smart to continue his streak in this series for us.
Kevin Durant OVER 44 Points, Rebounds, Assists
Next, I'll be looking at Kevin Durant's points, rebounds, and assists prop. Durant has exceeded this projection in three of his last five games, averaging 44.8 PRA during that stretch.
After going down 2-0 to the Denver Nuggets, the Pheonix Suns had a great game-three win, playing with clear urgency. Stars Devin Booker and Durant combined for a crazy total of 86 points. We saw Durant play super aggressively, taking 31 total shots, connecting on a low 38.7 % but still finishing with 39 points. He also secured nine rebounds and eight assists, and he did this with almost no rest, playing 43 minutes.
The books have Durant's line set at 44.5 with -120 odds on the over, giving us a half-point margin. Durant has been shooting at a poor percentage recently, and I expect him to pick that up tonight. With Chris Paul (groin) expected to miss game four, I expect the same aggressiveness and volume to come from Durant and Booker.
Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Rebounds + Assists
I'll finish things off with Nikola Jokic's rebounds and assists prop. Jokic has exceeded this projection in three of his last five games, averaging 25 RA during that stretch.
Jokic is coming off a remarkable 34 rebounds and assists performance in game three's loss. He is an incredibly talented player with the potential to drop a triple-double by halftime. After their loss in game three, I anticipate a better game from Denver tonight. If Denver shoots better, Jokic will have more assist opportunities, and if they play better defense, Jokic will have more rebounds. Jokic has been outstanding in the series against the Suns, and I expect him to stuff the stat sheet again tonight.
The books like Jokic to go over 22.5 RA with -125 odds, while some have him at 23.5 with -130 odds on the under, giving us a one-point margin. I'm projecting Jokic for 24-plus rebounds and assists tonight; let's see what the Joker can do.
Other Recommendations:
- Joel Embiid OVER 38.5 PR
- Malcolm Brogdon OVER 20.5 PRA
- Jamal Murray OVER 2.5 3pt
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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