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Welcome back to Thunder Dan's Best NBA Bets! It's been a while since I have been able to cover the NBA here at RotoBaller and I hope you have been reading all of my MLB betting content, too.
We have two playoff games in the association tonight. Game 1 between the Sixers and Celtics takes place in Boston, though Philly is likely to be without their star center, Joel Embiid. Meanwhile, we have Game 2 between Phoenix and Denver out west. I am pretty excited about both games. With a light MLB schedule, I will be spending more time focusing on basketball bets and DFS than I have been able to lately.
As always, in this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA playoff games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, May 1. Now, let's see how we want to attack these games with the books tonight!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- First-Round Series Predictions: 5-3
- 2022-2023 Postseason Individual Games: 6-9
- Against the Spread: 3-2
- Game/Team Totals: 1-4
- Moneyline Parlay: 2-1
- Teasers: 0-2
- Overall: 11-12
NBA Betting Picks
Philadelphia 76ers (+10) @ Boston Celtics (213.5 total)
The Sixers should be well-rested for this series after disposing of Brooklyn in short order with a 4-0 sweep. They didn't need Joel Embiid in Game 4 of the Brooklyn series to put away the Nets. It looks like they won't have him tonight either, which is the only reason we are getting such a wonky 10-point spread.
I am really tempted to take the Sixers and the points because I think they can hang with this Boston team even without Embiid. Philly was 11-5 in the 16 games that Embiid missed with a net rating of +7.2. That's pretty impressive when you consider that Embiid is such a huge part of their identity on offense and defense and I was surprised to uncover those numbers when researching this series.
Boston is coming off a series where the Hawks pushed them to a sixth game and nearly a seventh as the Celtics pulled out a close win late in Game 6 to seal the series. I think everyone has been a bit too quick to anoint them the Eastern Conference champs just because the Bucks lost in the first round and Embiid is hurt. I love what the Celtics bring to the table, but they'll be tested by Philly in this series and they can't afford to take them lightly tonight either.
I think I just talked myself into the Sixers with the points when all I really wanted to bet was the over. These teams went over this total in three of their four regular season matchups and I believe Philly will play faster without Embiid (they were 1.3 possessions faster without him in the regular season).
Believe it or not, they were actually more efficient on offense without him this season, too, seeing a 1.6-point bump in their offensive rating. Paul Reed is a nice backup at the center position but he doesn't offer the same rim protection as Embiid, so let's give Boston a few more projected points while we are at it, too.
As far as the series goes, everything really hinges on Embiid's health. He is a monster and put up some huge numbers in the final two matchups with Boston in the regular season. His size will give the Celtics fits, but we just don't know how effective he will be when he returns to the lineup and how soon that will be.
Still, the line on this series is basically 4-1 Boston and I just don't see them winning this series that easily unless Embiid doesn't suit up at all. I will take the Sixers to win two games and push the series to a sixth game for my series bet.
The Picks: OVER 213.5 points (-110 DK), Sixers +10 (-110 DK)
Series Pick: PHI +2.5 games (-115 DK)
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Phoenix Suns (+4.5) @ Denver Nuggets (227 total)
The Nuggets reminded everyone why they were the top seed in the West this year with an emphatic 125-107 win over the Suns on Saturday in the series opener. Phoenix was actually favored to win this series before that game and I hopped on the Nuggets side at +115 because there is really no reason why they should be underdogs when they hold homecourt advantage and have the two-time reigning MVP.
Kevin Durant's arrival in Phoenix certainly makes them title contenders, but the NBA community was quick to make them favorites and it's simply not that easy. Not when you have a Denver team that is healthy, rested, and firing on all cylinders.
It was Jamal Murray who dominated in Game 1, not Jokic, though the big man certainly was a huge factor as well. Murray poured in 34 points on 6-10 shooting from behind the arc. Jokic added 24 points and 19 boards, while Aaron Gordon was awesome in scoring 23 points of his own.
JAMAL MURRAY YOU’RE SICK 🤮 (via @nuggets) pic.twitter.com/0Z3lU9kOp2
— Overtime (@overtime) April 30, 2023
KD and Devin Booker had 29 and 27 points, respectively, but Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton were non-factors and the Suns got absolutely nothing from their bench. Ayton can't hang with Jokic in the paint and the Suns showed that while they have a pair of superstar scorers now, they still have some major defensive weaknesses. They gave up some big numbers to the Clippers last series even after Kawhi Leonard went down. They're simply not going to be able to just outscore Denver every night in this series.
I like the Nuggets at home here again. They were the second-best team ATS this season at home and had a massive 10.6-point margin of victory. I think Phoenix will likely bounce back at home in this series, but I think they might be a bit shell-shocked after Game 1 while Denver realizes they must seize the momentum and go up 2-0 while at home. I like the Nuggets to win (and cover) here as the spread for this game only moved up one point despite a dominant Denver effort in the opener.
The Pick: Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Good luck tonight, RotoBallers!
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