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Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Sunday, April 23rd, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.
The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total.
You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry, or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.
NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
Be sure to also check out our free new PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Jalen Brunson OVER 22.5 Points
I'll kick off today's slate with Jalen Brunson's points prop. Brunson has been over the 22.5 mark in three of his last five games, averaging 28.6 points during that span.
Today the New York Knicks will be facing the Cleveland Cavaliers in Madison Square Garden for game four of the series. I expect the Knicks to come out aggressive, just like last game at home, and for Brunson to be on the attack. Brunson has been shooting at a high volume throughout the series, averaging 18.6 field goals attempted in the series thus far.
The books have Brunson at -135 odds to surpass 22.5 points, while others have him listed at 23.5 with slight odds on the under, giving us a one-point margin. My prop model also supports this play, projecting Brunson to have 23.62 points giving us an edge here as well.
Kevon Looney OVER 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
Next up, I'll be taking a look at Kevon Looneys RA prop. Looney has been over this projection in one of the last three games over the series against the Sacramento Kings, averaging 16 RA during that span.
In game three of the Golden State Warriors against the Sacramento Kings, Looney had an unbelievable total of 29 Rebounds + Assists which was a huge factor in the Warriors blowout win. Draymond Green was out due to suspension, which may have helped Looney's cause, but I expect Looney to cover even with him returning tonight. Looney had 17 RA last game by HALFTIME, so dropping his line to 12.5 here because Green is returning doesn't add up to me.
The books have Looney at -140 to go over 12.5 RA, while some list him at 13.5 with odds leaning to the under, giving us a one-point margin. My prop model also projects Looney to finish with 14.04 RA, supporting this play with a great edge.
Let's hope Looney remains aggressive on the boards and continues getting those assists to Curry outside.
Jayson Tatum OVER 14.5 1h Points
I'll finish things off with Jayson Tatum's 1h points prop. Tatum has been over his projection of 14.5 1h points in four of his last five games, averaging 17.8 points over that stretch.
Without any surprise, Tatum has been balling out this series, going over this projection in all three games so far. The Boston Celtics are coming off a surprising loss to the Atlanta Hawks, now only leading the series 2-1. I expect Tatum and the Celtics to bounce back aggressively and take over in game four.
The books like Tatum to go over 29.5 points with -125 odds, and my prop model is projecting Tatum for 30.25. If you split that in half, you get 15, so Tatum should have no problem covering his 14.5 first-half points prop for us.
Other Recommendations:
- RJ Barrett UNDER 17.5 Points
- Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 Rebounds
- Andrew Wiggins OVER 32.5 Fantasy Points
- Jaylen Brown OVER 27.5 PA
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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