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Jackson Sparks discusses WR Deebo Samuel as one of the top dynasty fantasy football fallers for 2023 after a disappointing 2022 NFL season.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel inked a three-year deal worth up to $73.5 million after his breakout 2021 campaign and climbed up the dynasty rankings in the process. The 27-year-old swiss army knife totaled 1,770 total yards from scrimmage along with 14 touchdowns en route to a WR3 finish in PPR leagues and a WR2 finish in standard formats.
However, Samuel regressed in nearly all offensive statistical categories and his advanced stats and metrics took a hit. The 49ers' offense has been littered with high-upside weapons. In 2022, the team added another superstar (Christian McCaffrey) to take away touches from Samuel.
How did Samuel play in 2022, what is his current dynasty ranking and trade market, and what can we expect from him in 2023? Let's dive in.
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2022 Season In Review
Samuel's first three games of the 2022 season foreshadowed what was to come moving forward. In Weeks 1 through 3, Samuel caught just 12 of 21 targets for 131 yards and rushed 17 times for 111 yards and one touchdown. He fumbled twice. He finished as the half-PPR WR28, WR25, and WR49 over those three games.
At his preseason ADP of WR9 in half-PPR formats, it was far from an ideal start. Samuel got back on track in Week 4, turning eight touches into 117 yards and a touchdown on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams.
However, that proved to be an outlier boom week for the 2022 campaign. He posted WR26, WR22, and WR47 (first game with Christian McCaffrey) finishes in his next three games before suffering a hamstring injury that would cost him Week 8's rematch against the Rams.
When he returned after the team's Week 9 bye, Christian McCaffrey was fully involved in the Niners' offense -- spelling bad news for Samuel's fantasy output. In seven games sharing the field with McCaffrey (four games missed due to injury), Samuel averaged just 9.0 half-PPR fantasy points per game. That put him on par with Joshua Palmer and below players such as Darius Slayton, Rondale Moore, and Brandin Cooks.
Samuel finished outside the top 35 weekly wideouts in five of those seven games and posted just one top-20 wide receiver finish.
Overall, Samuel posted 56 receptions for 632 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He added 42 carries for 232 yards and three scores on the ground. He placed as the season-long WR38.
His rushing share was down with McCaffrey in the backfield. He finished outside of the top 35 wideouts in targets, air yards share, yards per route run, yards per target, yards per reception, and true catch rate. In order for him to produce big fantasy numbers in a crowded offense, he has to be ultra-efficient. He was far from that in 2022. Injuries might have a part in his downfall, but he wasn't a strong producer at the start of the season and McCaffrey was far more dynamic with the ball in his hands.
Deebo Samuel Dynasty Value/Market
While all dynasty leagues vary and Samuel's market value could be different from league to league, Keeptradecut.com's crowdsourced rankings are a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value may be. Samuel is ranked as the WR21 in dynasty leagues.
This time last year (early April), Samuel was ranked as the WR5 behind only the elites of the position. Now, he's ranked just behind Michael Pittman Jr. and just ahead of Jerry Jeudy and DJ Moore. The market is clearly concerned about his future outlook with McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle sharing the offense.
There's also a ton of uncertainty at quarterback as Brock Purdy (elbow) and Trey Lance (ankle) are recovering from major injuries. It's unknown whether either guy will be ready for Week 1 or who has the leg up in the quarterback competition.
Samuel can seemingly be acquired with any 2023 first-round rookie pick and there's a chance this will be the last time he's worth that much. That said, his name has continued to come up in trade rumors. Whether it's in 2023, 2024, or beyond -- a change of scenery could resurrect some of his dynasty value.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Samuel's current 2023 best ball ADP has him coming off the board around the WR16 spot and the 33rd player overall. His ADP has fallen since last year, but at that price, he's still a stay-away for me. He's not guaranteed touches in the red zone or on the goal line anymore with a healthy CMC and Elijah Mitchell. He's also arguably the third or fourth-best pass-catcher in his own offense.
While he's a fun gadget player and elite YAC man, it seems his 2021 nuclear season was a clear outlier thanks to a high rate of explosive players and end zone visits. San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan wants to be a methodical, conservative offense and the defense is far too good for the team to get involved in shootouts.
It's worth noting Samuel is most attractive in best ball formats since he can provide high-end boom weeks. In traditional sit 'em, start 'em leagues, he will likely be a frustrating player to roster once again in 2023. Players being drafted after him like Amari Cooper, Michael Pittman Jr., Mark Andrews, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Keenan Allen all feel like better bets.
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