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The 2022-2023 NBA season is here, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for Thursday, March 16.
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Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Points: I'll start off today's slate with Nikola Jokic's points prop. Jokic has exceeded 22.5 points in three of his last five games, averaging 27 points during that span. The Nuggets will face the Detroit Pistons tonight, a team that allows the third most points to opponents this year and allows the second-highest field goal percentage to opposing centers. Jokic killed this projection earlier this season, dropping 31 points against the Pistons in November. The books are giving Jokic -135 odds to go over 22.5 points, while some are even listing him at 23.5 with -125 odds to go over, which gives us a one-point margin. To support this play even more, my prop model projects Jokic for 25.72 points. I don't see this young pistons team holding Jokic under this number, and as long as this game stays relatively close, Jokic should cover with ease.
Chris Paul OVER 9.5 Assists: Next up, let's talk about Chris Paul's assists prop. Paul has surpassed this projection in two of his last five games, averaging 10.2 assists during that span. In his last three games, however, Paul has been over twice, averaging 11.67 assists. Tonight, the Suns play the Orlando Magic, a team that allows the 5th most assists to opposing Point Guards. In addition to that, the last time Paul played the Magic, he had 15 assists. The books like this play giving Paul -130 odds to go over 9.5 assists, while some have him listed as high as -140 to go over. I'm trusting Paul to continue to do what he's best at and dish 10-plus dimes to cover the over.
Mikal Bridges OVER 25.5 Points: I'll wrap things up with Mikal Bridges' points prop. Bridges has surpassed this projection in three of his last five games, with an average of 26.6 points during that span. Tonight, Bridges has a very favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings. This game only has a two-point spread, so I expect it to stay very close, eliminating the risk of a blowout. Since joining the Brooklyn Nets, Bridges has been the star of the team, with a high 28.3 percent usage rate. The books have Bridges at -135 odds to go over 25.5 points, while some have him listed at 26.5 with even odds, giving us a one-point margin. Facing a team here that allows the 11th most points to opposing teams, Bridges shouldn't have trouble covering in what should be a close and fast-paced game.
Other Recommendations - Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 9 Rebounds, Killian Hayes OVER 6.5 Assists, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 31.5 Points, Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists.
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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