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More underdogs keep coming through either against the spread or outright. The Eagles lost their first game to Washington on Monday night and I sure hope you read this column last week because I gave that out. The other big upset in terms of the spread was the Vikings beating the Bills in one of the best regular season games.
Week 11 features an AFC East battle between the Jets and Patriots, the Cowboys taking on the hottest team in football in the Vikings, and an AFC West matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers on Sunday night football.
You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 11
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Ravens -12.5 vs. Panthers, Bills -8.5 vs. Browns, 49ers -8 vs. Cardinals (Mexico City).
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Bucs, Dolphins, Jaguars, Seahawks
My best bets are at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 11
Ravens -12.5 vs. Panthers
Baker Mayfield is reportedly getting the start for Carolina this week with P.J. Walker injured. They'll have 10 days to prepare since they last played Thursday night while Baltimore is off a bye. The Ravens have a vastly more talented team with a top-10 offense in yards per play. Baltimore should get back to their basics here; running the ball. The Panthers have given up the fourth-most rushing yards in the last three weeks. The Ravens have struggled on defense so be wary of the backdoor cover from Carolina but running the ball will control the clock and not have to let the Ravens' defense get exposed.
Ravens 33 - Panthers 17
Bengals -4.5 at Steelers
Cincinnati is a road favorite off a bye. They are a better team in every facet of this matchup. The Steelers are 31st in scoring, 15.6 points per game, and tied for last in yards per play. The Bengals rank sixth in scoring with 25.3 points per game and 12th in yards per play. On paper, there's no way Cincinnati should not win by at least 14.
Bengals 36 - Steelers 16
49ers -8 vs. Cardinals (Mexico City)
This game is on Monday night in Mexico. If Colt McCoy gets the start again in place of Kyler Murray, I'd take the Cardinals with the points. McCoy has a better command of the offense, is a veteran who doesn't make many mistakes, and keeps the ball moving around. Regardless of who starts, the 49ers though should have enough to win this game. I expect the Niners to start rolling.
49ers 28 - Cardinals 24
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 11
Bills -8.5 vs. Browns
This game is in the avoid section not because of the matchup, but because of the weather. Accuweather writes, "Feet of snow to bury Buffalo as potentially historic lake-effect event looms." Not inches, but feet. As I write this on a Tuesday, I'd avoid it but monitor the weather.
Eagles -6.5 at Colts
The recipe to beat Philadelphia is out there; run the ball. Two weeks ago, the Texans ran for 168 yards on 32 carries, and on Monday night, the Commanders ran for 152 yards on 49 carries. This has come with Eagles defensive lineman Jordan Davis on Injured Reserve.
The Colts have one of the best running backs in Jonathan Taylor. Matt Ryan is back at quarterback and this team seems rejuvenated.
Colts 24 - Eagles 20
Chiefs -6.5 at Chargers
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are reportedly expected to practice this week, which gives Justin Herbert some real targets. Kansas City seems to have a bend-don't-break defense, but if the Chargers have their top weapons back, it could pose problems.
Patrick Mahomes has looked dominant and it's hard to go against him but the Chargers have played Kansas City competitively in recent years.
Chiefs 33 - Chargers 30
NFL Best Bets for Week 11
Bengals -4.5 at Steelers - Joe Burrow and the Bengals will avenge their Week 1 loss. 24 points are all that should be needed to cover.
Lions +3 at Giants - Jared Goff finally played a good game in cold weather. The Giants have been skating by, but they can't keep winning these 50/50 games.
Texans +3.5 vs. Commanders - Washington is off their biggest win of the season. I expect a hangover to be looming.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 1-2
- 2022 season: 17-11-2
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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