RADIO
Our underdogs came up big last week, but I continued my streak of whiffing on totals, even with going after team totals instead of game totals. Maybe I should just quit better totals? Anyway, it's kind of an ugly batch of games this week but that won't stop us from making bets anyway, right?
Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week: 2-2
- Season ATS: 16-14
- Season O/U: 5-16
- Season Overall: 21-30
NFL Betting Picks: Spreads/MoneyLine
SEATTLE ML (+125 DK)
I feel like we have been here before, right? In fact, last week I went on a rant about the Seahawks being underdogs despite being an actually good team and winning games with their offense AND defense this year.
Well, here we are again. Seattle is the fifth-ranked team in overall DVOA (a metric I put a decent amount of stock in on a weekly basis) and facing a Tampa team that was lucky to pull out a last-second win against the Rams last week.
This game is being played at a neutral site - in Germany! - so the usual three-point advantage to the home team shouldn’t be applied here. That means the book and other bettors view the Bucs as the better team still despite all the metrics suggesting otherwise.
I am going to ride Seattle until they bust and it could be this week, who knows? But Tampa hasn’t shown me anything in recent weeks to suggest they are deserving favorites in any way.
NYG -6.5 (-110 DK)
Before I give my rationale here, I will say that the other two spots I was eyeing were Las Vegas -6 and Pittsburgh +2.5. I simply can’t really trust the Raiders any given week, even if they are playing a Colts team that can’t score any points. Indy fired their coach this week and could get Jonathan Taylor back, I am just not going to touch that one.
And as far as Pittsburgh goes, I try not to bet on my own team, but they have some solid trends working in their favor as they’ve been historically really good coming off the bye and the Saints don’t match up all that well and are considering a QB change after Monday night’s loss. I will toss the Steelers in my teaser and that’s enough exposure for me.
Let’s talk about the Giants, though! They had their four-game winning streak snapped by…none other than our favorite team to bet on this year - the Seahawks - two weeks ago. But they are rested up and coming off a bye of their own. They’re at home against Houston, a team that I view as one of the five worst in the league.
The matchup is good here as the Giants like to run the football and the Texans simply can’t stop it. Yes, Houston might have some success with Dameon Pierce and their run game too, but they’re not likely going to be able to conjure up enough offense to hang here. I like the G-men to get back on track and win this one by a TD or more.
NFL Betting Picks: Totals
CLE-MIA OVER 48.5 (-110 DK)
Betting the over on Browns games has been a +EV move thus far as they’ve hit in five of eight games this year and own the best +/- on their game totals at +6.3 points.
And now they face a surging Miami Dolphins team that is scoring points in droves. This game really matches up well for both offenses as the Browns have a hard time stopping the pass and Miami is slinging it all over the place now that Tua is healthy.
Miami’s defense is not good, either, and we saw them give up huge chunk plays to Chicago last week and a massive rushing total to Justin Fields. Jacoby Brissett can’t run like Fields, but the Browns have arguably the best running back in football in Nick Chubb and an excellent offensive line to open up holes for him. I look for Miami to win this game, but for them to let the Browns hang around and score plenty of points too.
DEN-TEN UNDER 38.5 (-105 DK)
Going under a total this low seems crazy, but this game actually has one of the best ratings in my model, and as we are getting more weeks’ worth of data factored into the projections, I am getting more comfortable in trusting it each week.
Listen, the Broncos and Titans are both in the bottom third of the league in points per game with Denver the third-worst, averaging only 15 points per contest. This Tennesee team has been content to hand the ball to Derrick Henry 30 times per game while Ryan Tannehill has been out so that their rookie backup Malik Willis doesn’t lose them any games and they had Kansas City on the ropes for most of the game last week.
This is setting up to be a brutal, low-scoring contest as both defenses are very respectable and both offenses are content to run the football and try to avoid mistakes and turnovers. Even if Tannehill returns for the Titans, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this one end up 17-14. I am on the under here even at an already low number.
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You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.
5-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: NYG/SF/KC/DAL/PHI (+288 DK)
4-TEAM 6-POINT UNDERDOG TEASER: DET/SEA/PIT/MIN (+260 DK)
That takes the spreads to DET +8.5, SEA +8.5, PIT +8.5, and MIN +10.5!
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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