RADIO
A near total survivor doomsday. Three of the top four most selected teams on average in pools, Bucs, Packers, Niners, all went down. The top selected team in most pools, the Rams, were a half away from knocking many contests to less than 100 entrants. This year keeps getting worse and worse for favorites. Strategies need to be adjusted going forward. Survive and advance. No more saving teams. If you're still alive, just get the winner and move on and deal with next week's picks later on.
Week 7 doesn't get any easier with the Bills, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings all on bye. There are some touchdown favorites including my top play which goes on Monday night.
All season long I'll be bringing you weekly survivor pool columns on NFL teams to target and avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2022 NFL season.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 7
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Bucs -10.5 at Panthers, Patriots -8 vs. Bears Cowboys -7 vs. Lions, Raiders -7 vs. Texans, Dolphins -7 vs. Steelers,
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Bills, Eagles, Rams, Vikings
With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 7
Patriots -8 vs. Bears
Justin Fields has looked like and has statistically been the worst quarterback in football. Fields has 63 completions in six games, that's 10.5 per. He has the worst completion percentage, 54.8, to go along with 145 passing yards a game. How is he still a quarterback in today's NFL?
Somehow though Chicago isn't the worst scoring offense with 15.5 points per game, that award goes to Denver with 15.2. As bad as it has looked for Fields, it's going to be a disaster on Monday night against the Patriots.
Bill Belichick lives for games against quarterbacks like these. The defense forced four turnovers last week in a blowout against Cleveland and shut out the Lions the week before. New England's offense has found their recipe for success on offense with their ground attack and Bailey Zappe not making mistakes. This could get really ugly.
Patriots 27 - Bears 10
Bucs -10.5 at Panthers
Tampa's defense should have a day against P.J. Walker and the Panthers' offense which ranks 29th in yards per play. Tom Brady can't have a worse performance after last week. This is a get right game for the Bucs.
Bucs 37 - Panthers 21
Chargers -6.5 vs. Seahawks
This line was 8.5 prior to Monday night's game, but after a stellar performance by the Seahawks' defense and one of the worst offensive outputs Justin Herbert and the Chargers, the line is now down to 6.5. Statistically, that's an anomaly and should not happen again.
Chargers 41 - Seahawks 24
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 7
Cowboys -7 vs. Lions
Dallas may seem like a logical option after a tough loss Sunday night to a seemingly easy opponent at home. Detroit though is off their bye and you'd be sure fixing their defense was a top priority. But the good thing for the Lions; Dallas ranks 23rd in yards per play and points per game. Even if Dak Prescott starts in place of Cooper Rush, the offense will be rusty.
Dallas' defense will have their hands full with a top-five Lions offense. Detroit doesn't quit in any game and this will be a close one.
Lions 21 - Cowboys 16
Raiders -7 vs. Texans
Expectations will be sky-high with how Vegas looked prior to their bye. This 1-4 team could be 3-2 or even 4-1. Each loss has been by single digits, but that clearly shows they can't close out a game. How will they play off their bye against the Texans who are also off a bye. On paper, the Raiders should win this handily, but until they show they can win one going away, I'd rather avoid.
Raiders 30 - Texans 23
Dolphins -7 vs. Steelers
Both teams have unknowns at quarterback with concussions looming over. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start Sunday night for Miami with Kenny Pickett expected to start if cleared by the doctors. It's really tough to get a feel for this game with this many questions. Wait and see before entering your pick. But if for some reason Tua does not start, and Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod over Skylar Thompson, this game becomes a pick 'em then.
Bengals -6 vs. Falcons
Which Cincinnati team will show up, the one in the first half or the one in the second that outscored New Orleans 16-6? Atlanta is not a team that you can take a half off against. When they get to the red zone, they score a touchdown 66 percent of the time, fifth in the league.
Bengals 34 - Falcons 31
Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns
This divisional game looks too easy for Baltimore. They lost another game they should have won against the Giants while Cleveland just got blown out. How come this line is only 6.5? Vegas is begging you to tease this game with another, meaning all the Ravens need to do is win. Looks too easy.
Ravens 23 - Browns 20
Packers -5.5 at Commanders
Aaron Rodgers does not look comfortable and until this team plays a complete game with a lopsided victory, they can't be trusted.
NFL Best Bets for Week 7
- Jaguars -3 vs. Giants - The 2-4 Jaguars are favored against the 5-1 Giants. Vegas is telling the Jacksonville is the better team.
- 49ers +3 vs. Chiefs - The Niners defense will give Patrick Mahomes fits.
- Patriots -8 vs. Bears
Running Totals
- Last Week: 1-2
- 2022 season: 12-5-1
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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