Wide Receiver Risers for Fantasy Football Drafts: ADP Analysis for Michael Thomas, Kadarius Toney, Brandon Aiyuk

August 26, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at fantasy football wide receiver risers for 2022 drafts. These are potentially undervalued wide receivers to be avoided based on ADP.

Welcome back to another article in our fantasy football ADP draft risers and fallers – today we'll be looking at wide receivers risers. I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three risers at wide receiver.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Risers

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

The last piece of bad news related to Michael Thomas arrived all the way back in early Nov. 2021 when he announced that he wouldn't be able to come back to end the campaign on the field. After that, and starting in May, it's all been good and positive vibes and reports regarding Thomas' eventual comeback. That didn't take New Orleans from drafting a stud WR with an early pick (Chris Olave, arguably the most NFL-ready rookie at the position), mind you, but Thomas is the clear honcho of this offense and seems poised to come back strong.

Thomas started to run routes almost two months ago and that was made clearly visible on a short IG reel. By the end of July reports off the Saints training camp were already talking about "Thomas moving well" while participating in individual workouts. He was also removed from the PUP list, thus making him available to play as soon as Week 1 – health allowing.

I could keep on going and quote a thousand praising reports for a while. but you get the idea. Thomas might not be pre-2020 Thomas anymore (top-7 WR in four consecutive seasons) but I'm convinced he won't be as bad as 2020 Thomas either (12.0 FPPG in seven games/five starts). Most fantasy GMs seem to be on that thinking wave, as the ADP is sky-rocketing past the moon and then some of late.

Even with such a bump up in price, Thomas is still getting drafted as an undervalued wideout. He's the WR33 off the board but PFF has a WR29 projection attached to his stat line for 2022. He is projected to a 107/77/895/6 receiving line and that would be by far the worst year of his career (even as a rookie he went for a 121/92/1,137/9 line). That helped him finish as the WR7 in 2016. A baseline of 85/1,000/5 is the minimum I'd project Thomas will get in 2020, and that's already WR2 territory. He is a must-draft player at his current ADP if there is one.

Kadarius Toney, New York Giants

Toney's ADP progression is eerily similar to that of Michael Thomas (read above), only a few rounds and draft picks lower. Toney, truth be told, is coming off a horrid rookie season with the Giants last year even getting into the league with a fair amount of hype (ADP of 69.4) only to put up a putrid 211 OVR season finishing WR89. Ugh. He only played 10 games, and just four of those were labeled "started games," so you get an idea of how upsetting his campaign was for those banking on him.

Judging by the reports coming off the Giants camp, and considering that the franchise is bringing a new contingent to helm the team starting with HC Brian Daboll, it's surprising to find out that Toney is actually one of the most appreciated wideouts by the new staff in town. Of course, there is a difference between training-camp praise/success and actual regular-season, on-field production. So we'll see.

I love Toney as much as I loved anyone in the 2021 rookie class, but he couldn't either stay healthy last year or when he was, he just didn't get the play schemes right or whatever the issues were. He has been quoted saying he likes the new approach more, and all sorts of other things we are 20 years tired of hearing by now throughout the hot summer months.

All of that, again, has to be proved on the field, and... well, Toney has yet to appear in a preseason game as I'm writing this. He's missed two straight recovering from a knee injury. Of course, this might be (and most probably is) just precautionary, but keep a close eye on it. The talk and the assumed role he'll get next season (WR2 in the Giants depth chart) is appealing, but the best ability is availability and so far Toney has not been quite excellent at that.

If you can get Toney with a 100+ pick, knowing the potential injury issues, go ahead and draft him. If not, don't go crazy chasing him early. You can always get Wan'Dale Robinson with a last-round pick or on the WW and he looks much better than any other non-Golladay receiver currently rostered by the Giants.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

With Deebo Samuel re-inked and already old news, it's time for teammate Brandon Aiyuk to get the spotlight, I guess...until the inevitable Jimmy Garoppolo trade happens and the focus shifts back to him as in the early days of the offseason. Nothing has really changed in Frisco that should make Aiyuk's ADP escalate quickly (same WR/TE depth, different-but-still-average quarterback) but here we are with Aiyuk jumping up more than a full round in 12-team drafts.

I don't believe in the whole "building preseason rapport" storylines and such, so I'm Gucci on that front and not banking on such things. Aiyuk, while clearly outperformed by Samuel last season, always looked undervalued and underappreciated to my eyes last year. Yes, Deebo had a season for the ages (literally: no receiver had ever scored eight rushing and six receiving touchdowns, and only four rushers had ever done it before) but if you remove the rushing side of the game from the equation, things look much closer between the two.

Of course, that's not completely fair to Samuel and his skills and talent, but it makes for a  more apples-to-apples comparison with Aiyuk. Samuel finished 2021 with 253.5 PPR points to Aiyuk's 170.6 over the season, but on an actual per-target basis they finished a much closer 2.10 to 2.03 FP/Tgt respectively.

Considering all actions taken by both players (targets plus carries), the outcome would actually favor Aiyuk (1.91 FP/Act) over Samuel (1.86). How about that? Teammates have been praising Aiyuk's summer and the truth is that they know they probably need to boost this young man's spirit if they don't want to lose him after all of the nonsensical criticism he's gotten in his two NFL seasons.

The ADP is a bit high for the projection (WR41 off the board, projection to WR53) but I also think that PFF number is a bit off and Aiyuk should get past 200+ PPR points easily in 2022. Not one I'd chase before getting into the 11/12th round or later, but one to keep an eye on to bolster your offense with a late/last-round pick.

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