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Scott Engel takes an early look at FFPC ADP to see who high-stakes fantasy football players are targeting and fading in the 2022 draft season.
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Yet high-stakes fantasy football participants dig just as deep on players and projections as we do, so we feature who they prefer and may fade to further shed light on their evaluations. Here are our latest observations on Average Draft Position trends in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). We focus on ADPs in the FFPC Main Event, which are provided courtesy of fantasymojo.com, which is a prime destination for FFPC data.
We have shared some of our most interesting early drafting trends since the ADP data began flowing in at the beginning of July. Do keep in mind that FFPC scoring adds a half-point per reception for tight ends, so that does affect their overall ADPs a bit, but the player values we highlight do fall in correct alignment from positional perspectives. You can also consult more FFPC ADP reports here.
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FFPC ADPs: The Latest Observations and Insights
Austin Ekeler (No. 8 overall, RB3 off the boards): Christian McCaffrey seems to be gaining steam as a big bounce-back candidate as the No. 2 player off the boards, while some fantasy experts and savvy players do not believe that Ekeler can reprise his combined 20 TD performance from last season.
Durability is much less of a concern with Ekeler, and he is now established as a consistent goal-line runner. So I would nearly swap the two in terms of where they are currently being picked, as I have McCaffrey ranked ninth overall.
Derrick Henry (12 overall, RB6): Among some experienced competitors, the negative narratives are Henry is an age concern at 28. He has a lot of wear on him over the last four years, and he is coming off a Jones fracture in 2021.
Yet he is not a RB who gets banged up frequently and Henry didn’t show any impending signs of a possible drop-off last time we saw him play regularly, so he can be a first-round value at No. 12.
Deebo Samuel (24, WR8): Samuel was forced into a larger than expected role as a runner last season when the 49ers had injury issues at RB and may not carry quite as often as he did last year. Plus, there will be the obvious QB change to Trey Lance and there are some reported concerns about his polish as a passer.
Samuel does a lot of his own work to roll up good yardage numbers and he should be freed up more to make things happen in the passing game. He has been the WR leader in yards after the catch the last two seasons and it has not been close. He averaged 10.1 yards after the catch last year, while the next closest WR averaged 8.5.
Lance just has to get Samuel the ball on many high-percentage throws and he will do a lot of the heavy lifting from there. I would still draft Samuel as a top 5 wide receiver this season. Maybe he won’t get to 1,400 yards again, but he won’t fall too far from that number.
Travis Etienne (28, RB13): The FFPC drafters seem to be aligning with my positive views on Etienne, and are aggressively pushing him up the boards. He is going to work with his college teammate in the backfield and should be a busy and versatile performer for an offense that needs a real sparkplug.
Etienne has drawn some comparisons to Alvin Kamara and he could be a difference-maker in high-stakes formats, which is why you see him being drafted in the FFPC as a high-end RB2.
Travis Etienne is back in action 😁
(🎥 @Jaguars)
pic.twitter.com/0ves5p78yT— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 7, 2022
Courtland Sutton (41, WR17): Sutton is being drafted accurately as the new projected No. 1 WR for Russell Wilson in Denver, and he could outperform this ADP. Sutton already has a 1,100-yard season in his pocket and now gets an obviously major QB upgrade. He may not be as fast as DK Metcalf, but Sutton is a 6-4 big-play guy that Wilson will instantly take to.
Allen Robinson (47, WR21): We saw what Matthew Stafford did for Cooper Kupp, and now Robinson gets to finally play with a top NFL quarterback. He will go from unhappy Bear to grateful Ram, and it will not be a surprise if he has his best season since 2015 when Robinson had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs.
Justin Herbert (59, QB2): Just a reminder that high-stakes players wait on their quarterbacks, especially in a TE premium format. A total of 29 wide receivers and 20 running backs have higher ADPs than the second quarterback off the boards.
Michael Thomas (77, WR36): You can obviously see that FFPC drafters are cautious about Thomas, but recent positive reports could make him a value play if he can confirm an improved outlook by getting back into better form this preseason.
Christian Kirk (84, WR40): It seems that many high-stakes drafters agree with me that the Jaguars overpaid for Kirk. He has never caught 80 passes, reached 1,000 yards, or caught more than six TD passes, yet somehow he is going to be expected to perform as a No. 1 wide receiver? Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke’s track record has been heavily criticized, and this was another highly questionable move. FFPC players are not going to make the same mistake of overrating Kirk.
Tyler Lockett (108, WR49): The FFPC crowd is obviously docking Lockett heavily as he enters his first season working without Wilson. He is being drafted after Skyy Moore and Chase Claypool. Lockett did benefit greatly from a well-established and highly successful on-field relationship with Wilson, but if Drew Lock surprises due to a change of scenery or Lockett becomes more of a YAC playmaker than a regular deep threat like he was with Wilson, then he can still be a viable fantasy WR3.
Matthew Stafford (127, QB12): This is more resounding proof that you can wait on the QB position and still land a very good starter. Stafford was the fifth-highest scorer at QB in fantasy football last season. Many fantasy players naturally prefer more mobile QBs, but Stafford is being taken in this range on many platforms and he is a certain value outside of the top 10 at the position.
1. Matthew Stafford (QB12) and Cooper Kupp (WR1)
Maybe the obvious choice left, but nonetheless one of the best stacks to have in fantasy football again this year.
Stafford finished as QB5 last year, averaging 20.4 fpts/g and we all know what kind of season Kupp had last year. pic.twitter.com/40c2vBhJXl
— The Fantasy Football Fellas (@fffellas) July 18, 2022
Evan Engram (139, TE18): This is another notable Jacksonville acquisition that will supposedly upgrade Lawrence’s receiving crew, but I will not be buying into it. I have a hard time drafting him any earlier than this, and that is true even in a TE premium format such as the FFPC.
Engram’s fantasy appeal is somehow lingering long after his 2017 rookie season, but the reality is that he has not been a quality fantasy player over the last four years. The Giants needed him to step forward many times in those seasons and he never did.
There is some hope that he will play in a more TE-friendly system under Doug Pederson now, but Engram has not given us any real reasons to believe that he can be more than a mid-range fantasy TE2 this year.
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