How Every NFL Rookie Wide Receiver Impacts Their Offense for Fantasy Football (Round 2 Continued)

July 22, 2022

Tyler Atlas continues to analyze the fantasy football impact of rookie wide receivers selected in the 2022 NFL Draft (Round 2 Picks). Which WRs are risers or fallers?

Each year, we see a handful of incoming rookie WRs finish as a WR2 or better in fantasy football. While the best rookies are typically those who are drafted in the first round (Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase), there are also numerous recent examples of Day 2 and 3 picks who also had great rookie seasons (A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown).

In this article, I’ll be covering a couple of WRs that were drafted in Round 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft.

To read my previous article about the rest of the WRs drafted in Round 2 (Skyy Moore, Christian Watson, and Wan'Dale Robinson), you can check it out here. To read my previous article about the WRs drafted in Round 1 (Drake London, Treylon Burks, and more), you can check it out here.

Houston Texans: John Metchie III (Pick #44)

John Metchie was an early second-round draft pick and the ninth wide receiver off the board in this class. Unfortunately, Metchie tore his ACL in the NCAA Championship Game this past season, meaning he’ll be just nine months removed from the injury come Week 1.

Since the typical ACL recovery timeline is usually about nine months, Metchie might be physically ready to play by the start of the season. However, he most likely will not have had any reps during the preseason in order to get acclimated to this new offensive scheme before Week 1.

Metchie also landed on an extremely low upside Houston Texans roster that already has a few talented wide receivers at their disposal.

With second-year QB Davis Mills at the helm, this Texans’ passing game is likely capped at 4000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs, and that’s if we’re being generous. Furthermore, veteran WR Brandin Cooks has had 80+ receptions and 1000+ receiving yards in each of the last two seasons for the Texans, and there is no reason to believe he cannot continue this success in 2022.

Opposite of Cooks, I expect second-year WR Nico Collins to play the alpha “X” role in this offense, with his 6’4, 215 lb frame. Collins was a third-round draft pick last year, and found his way onto the field and commanding targets right away during his rookie season. Over his final five matchups of 2021, Collins saw a respectable six targets per game.

When looking at this core as a whole, last season, in games where Mills, Cooks, and Collins were all on the field, Cooks commanded a 28.5% target share while Collins had 15.6%. Heading into 2022, I expect Cooks to hover closer to a 25% share while Collins may reach upwards of 18-20%.

This leaves just 10-15% of the target share in a low-scoring offense for a rookie wide receiver who will be just nine months removed from an ACL tear. While I definitely think John Metchie is a talented player, he will likely have little impact as a rookie, as he will struggle to earn a significant role while still learning the offense post-injury.

New England Patriots: Tyquan Thornton (Pick #50)

Tyquan Thornton had his best season at Baylor as a senior in 2021, where he posted 62 receptions on 108 targets with 948 receiving YDs and 10 TDs. These statistics were nothing outstanding, but they were enough for New England to select him as the 10th wide receiver off the board.

While he did earn decent draft capital, many analysts and scouts still viewed this pick as a reach by the Patriots. Looking deeper into the wide receiver room that he’ll be joining, Thorton’s path towards relevance in 2022 seems to be a steep hill to climb.

In order to have success as a rookie, Tyquan Thornton will need to surpass multiple names on New England’s depth chart just to earn himself a role in this extremely low-volume offense.

Firstly, Jakobi Meyers has developed a clear rapport with QB Mac Jones. Meyers maintained an elite 24.0% target share throughout the 2021 season, and there is no reason to believe that this connection won’t continue in 2022.

Next, the Patriots recently acquired Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker in a trade for a 2022 fifth-round pick. Parker had 100+ targets in both 2019 & 2020, including a career-best 1200 YD and nine TD back in 2019. While there was clearly a small market for the former 2015 first-round selection, he’s had enough success throughout his career to expect a significant workload in New England.

Finally, we have Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, who each project similarly to one another. Last season, each had a 12-13% target share, but the main difference between the two was their exact roles in this offense. Agholor was used more as a field-stretching option, with an average depth-of-target of 13.5, compared to Bourne, who saw more work underneath, and an ADOT of 8.3.

Ultimately, there is still one trait that Tyquan Thornton has that none of their other options bring to the table, blazing speed. In the 2022 NFL Combine, Thornton ran a 40-yard dash time of 4.28, while the next fastest WRs on this depth chart are Agholor’s 4.42 and Parker’s 4.45.

Of course, 40 times aren’t the be-all-end-all, but the Patriots needed a difference-making field-stretcher enough to reach the fastest receiver in the class. While this WR group seems difficult to project accurately, I believe that Meyers and Parker will earn similar target shares to one another, while Thornton will beat out Bourne and Agholor to play as a field stretcher in 3+WR sets.

However, considering he still needs to beat out two other receivers to play for a low-volume offense in a role that typically does not bode for fantasy success, I’ll likely be staying far away from Tyquan Thornton in 2022.

Pittsburgh Steelers: George Pickens (Pick #52)

As a freshman at Georgia, George Pickens was dominant, putting up over 700 YDs and eight TDs in 12 games. Then, as a sophomore, he posted over 500 YDs and six TDs in just eight games. However, after suffering an ACL tear during spring practice, Pickens returned for the final four games of the 2021 season, where he was only able to secure five receptions and 107 YDs.

Still, despite barely playing as a junior, Pickens chose to forgo his senior season and declare early for the 2022 NFL Draft, where the Steelers made him a second-round pick as the 11th WR selected. Now, the 6’3 prospect will be joining an already talented WR group in a low-upside passing offense.

Firstly, for the alpha “X” role in this Pittsburgh offense, Pickens will likely be competing with Claypool, who is both an inch taller and nearly 40 pounds heavier. Claypool has had 100+ targets and 800+ YDs in each of his first two seasons, and will likely continue this trend in 2022, despite the recent change at QB.

Next, Diontae Johnson is coming off a season with 169 targets, after previously seeing 144 targets in 2020. While it’s unlikely that we see these insane target numbers again without Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, there’s no doubt he’ll be the Steelers' most targeted player come the end of the season.

Finally, as a rookie, Najee Harris earned 94 targets from the RB position. Just like Diontae, this number was likely propped up by Big Ben’s lack of arm strength, but he will still continue to earn a significant portion of the team’s target share, no matter who is playing QB.

With all this in mind, I’m not sure I want to invest in a rookie wide receiver who will end up being the fourth receiving option for Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. No matter how talented George Pickens may be, I do not see any path towards fantasy football relevance as a rookie.

It is much more likely that he makes an impact further down the line in his career when Diontae Johnson leaves in free agency and the Steelers are no longer facing a QB competition.

Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce (Pick #53)

At Cincinnati, Alec Pierce was an outstanding deep threat, running a 4.41 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine while standing at 6’3, 211 lbs. As a senior, Pierce dominated with over 50 receptions, nearly 900 YDs, and eight TDs.

Now, Alec Pierce is entering a very low-volume passing offense in Indianapolis, which had the fifth-most rush attempts in the NFL last season. However, there is still an opportunity to find success on this depth chart on the team that scored the ninth-most points last season.

The Colts’ RB combination of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines will earn around 21.5% of the team’s target share, as they’ve done in each of the last two seasons. This year, I expect the split between the two to be ~13% target share for Hines and ~8.5% share for Taylor.

Next, in just his second year, Michael Pittman Jr. commanded a 25.7% team target share and finished the season as a top-15 WR, despite Carson Wentz being highly inaccurate. With veteran QB Matt Ryan stepping in for 2022, I expect Pittman’s stats to look even better than last year while maintaining a similar target share. When looking past their clear alpha in Pittman, this depth chart seems wide open for anyone to find success. 

Through three seasons in the league, former 2019 second-round selection Parris Campbell has only played in 15 total games and has never finished a season with even 25 targets. Clearly, Campbell has become an injury-prone bust, and I do not expect him to earn a significant target share in 2022. Furthermore, the Colts are facing 149 vacated targets due to the departures of Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle, and T.Y. Hilton. 

While I do expect their RB and TE groups to earn a decent portion of the team’s target share with routes underneath, Indianapolis was lacking in real wide receivers behind Pittman, which ultimately led to Pierce being selected by the Colts in the second round.

Of course, he won’t immediately inherit the 30% vacated share, but there’s clearly a lot of room to expand his role in this offense. Overall, I believe Alec Pierce could become a viable asset for fantasy football managers this season, as he has little competition for the WR2 role in an Indianapolis Colts offense that will likely be among the league’s top-scoring teams once again.

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