Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Fallers: NFL Draft Aftermath

May 21, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at ADP fallers at running backs after the 2022 NFL Draft, assessing their fantasy football value heading into draft season.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some running back fallers.

Running Back - ADP Fallers

Michael Carter, New York Jets

The Jets probably had the best draft of all NFL teams yet at the same time they also probably had the worst draft in terms of fantasy upside and the projected production from their recently added rookies. Of course, it's not only the rookies who will feel that negative impact, but also the veterans already in the team that will have to endure the addition of other players to the depth chart. Enter: Michael Carter.

Carter, who will be playing his second season as a pro in 2022, had a relatively good debut last year finishing as the RB29 after getting off fantasy draft boards as the RB28. He also missed time, so it's not that he was atrocious with an average of 11 FPPG in PPR leagues and very solid receiving numbers (36 targets for 325 yards). The problem? New York just drafted the best rusher of the 2022 class with an early second-round pick after trading up to grab him. Uh oh.

Draft stock is widely known to be one of the most impactful measures of running back opportunities, so you know what's coming. Thus, the ADP of Carter fell down more than five full rounds. I'm definitely not getting Carter shares this summer, let alone with Hall now in the backfield on top of everything.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have moved on from Sony Michel after getting him as a rental last season--and they can't really complain about what he did, as all the Rams did at the end of the day was snatching that pesky Super Bowl. It's now back to a legit one-two punch in Los Angeles when it comes to rushers with Cam Akers getting the RB1 role to Henderson's RB2. Or is it?

The Rams drafted Notre Dame rusher Kyren Williams with a fifth-round pick though he doesn't really project to be that impactful in his first pro season. Williams comes with some nice pass-catching prowess, so that's the main concern when it comes to Henderson's role along with the clear-cut, go-to rusher and ball-carrier that Cam Akers will be in the offense. Even then, though, it all feels like a too-big of an overreaction by fantasy GMs when it comes to Henderson's cratering ADP. It's been four full rounds already and still going down. Not yet, but we're approaching a nice last-round draft value with DH right here. Don't get too excited with the expectations, though, as DH is nothing more than a potential borderline RB2 if all goes well for him next season.

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

This is very similar to the Michael Carter/Breece Hall situation happening in New York (read about it above). The Seahawks looked at their depth chart, saw Penny and Chris Carson as their one-two punch, and decided to bolster the backfield a bit by drafting the second-best rusher in the 2022 rookie class, Kenneth Walker III.

It's an intelligent move by the Seahawks considering Carson's played 12 and four games in the past two seasons, and Penny has done so three and 10 times in that same two-year span. Walker is definitely going to be featured heavily eating from both veterans' touch-pie so Penny's ADP flop is reasonable. A 10th-round pick for a probable RB2, maybe RB3? Let me pass, please, and thank you.

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