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Fantasy Football is by nature unpredictable. Every year, each round is filled with busts, and players who are hyped as sure-fire successes or breakout stars fail to meet expectations. Drafts, consensus ranks, and ADPs from previous years look wild in hindsight.
In 2023, Austin Ekeler was a consensus first-round pick. Davante Adams was ranked in the back of the first round. Tony Pollard was seen as a breakout star in his new role as the lead back for the Cowboys. Patrick Mahomes required a second-round pick to draft, and Chris Olave rounded out the second round. All of these players were disappointing.
Anything that gives you an edge in Fantasy Football is worth pursuing. Sometimes a player's situation, advanced stats, and details on their production can provide insight into how they'll perform. Situations matter, and changes in coaching staff, skill position players, and offensive lines can be crucial to identifying breakouts and busts. Here are five players with high expectations that could fail to produce as hoped.
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George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Arthur Smith is the new Offensive Coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers. In Smith's two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons, he authored some of the most disappointing seasons for any WR in Drake London. London was consistently underutilized in favor of the run game.
Despite being the eighth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, he failed to crack 1,000 yards in a season and has just six total TDs. He ranked 29th in targets in 2023, criminally low for such a high draft pick. Smith consistently siphoned touches away from London and to players like Jonnu Smith.
Smith consistently favors the run over the pass. Smith's offense passes significantly less than expected, and with the tandem of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris at RB, there's no reason that shouldn't continue.
Russell Wilson, the new Steelers QB, checked down relentlessly last year, leading the league with an absurd 10.19% Checkdown rate. Wilson's passing numbers were decent in 2023, but are projected to be much worse, owing to the presence of a good run game and a run-happy OC.
Wilson's stats were presumably propped up by greater receiver talent, but Pickens may have virtually no one to draw coverage away from him. Roman Wilson is dealing with an injury, and Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III would need to break out in a big way to change this.
Wilson historically has succeeded in attacking defenses by using his mobility to scramble and throw passes outside the numbers. With defenses transitioning to more 2-High Safety looks in recent years, it could get rough for Pickens in 2024.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara was a PPR cheat code in 2023, putting up massive point totals buoyed by huge reception totals. Derek Carr ranked 3rd in the league in Checkdown rate (min. 1,000 dropbacks) and was more than happy to throw to Kamara 10+ times per game. New OC Klint Kubiak's scheme is likely to utilize motion much more heavily, and an improved offense could necessitate fewer dump-offs to Kamara.
While Kamara put up decent stats last season, a deeper dive into his efficiency shows alarming signs. Kamara's ability to force missed tackles has nosedived in recent years. Typically, this is a leading indicator of diminished production and indicative of skill regression. Kamara ranked sixth worst in the entire NFL in 2023 at avoiding tackle attempts.
The eighth year of NFL play is the most common falloff age for RBs, where they average 73.1% of their career mean production. Kamara averaged just 3.9 YPC and a career-low 6.2 YPR last year.
Coaches notice efficiency drops and tend to divert passing and rushing volume away from inefficient players wherever possible. While Kamara is the clear lead RB for the Saints, there are many warning signs that he could have a substantial falloff.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams was extremely inefficient last year. This can largely be attributed to his knee injury in 2022. Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and Posterior Lateral Corner all at once. While players typically rebound from a down year post-ACL tear, multi-ligament injuries have lower success rates returning to play. This should be a warning sign that they are much more difficult to recover fully from.
Williams averaged just 3.6 YPC in 2023. Given the severity of his injury, he may never return to 100% effectiveness. The Broncos drafted Audric Estime, who Broncos HC Sean Payton is high on. Though he may not have an immediate role, he profiles similarly to Javonte and could be his replacement plan.
In addition, Jaleel McLaughlin was highly efficient and explosive in 2023. He ranked 4th in Missed Tackles Forced per Rush, making the most of his opportunities. Jaleel figures to siphon passing game work from Javonte in 2024. Jaleel averaged a target on 38% of his routes in 2023.
Given his explosiveness and elusiveness, it would be tough for the Broncos to justify giving Javonte a ton of passing game work. Williams ADP is more appropriate (77 in PPR on FantasyPros). However, drafting him expecting a huge breakout seems unwise.
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