NFL Playoff Picture - Clinching Scenarios and Which Games Matter for Week 18

2024 NFL playoff clinching scenarios heading into Week 18 (2024). Which teams can secure a spot to the postseason or improve their seed this week?

After an eventful Week 17 in the NFL, we are finally just one week away from the start of the postseason. The playoff picture is taking shape as we learn where each team will stand in the postseason.

The AFC North title and the final wild-card spot are still up for grabs in the AFC after the Chiefs, Bills, and Texans locked themselves into their respective seeds with Week 17 wins. Everyone else can still shake around while three teams are in the hunt for the No. 7 seed.

Over in the NFC, the Lions and Vikings will now battle for the AFC North and the top seed while the Eagles and Rams have notched their divisions. All three WC slots are spoken for, with the NFC South the only remaining unknown between Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

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AFC Playoff Clinching Scenarios

CLINCHED

1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-1): AFC West division title, No. 1 seed
2) Buffalo Bills (13-3): AFC East division title, No. 2 seed
3) Baltimore Ravens (11-5): playoff berth
4) Houston Texans (9-7): AFC South division title, No. 4 seed
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): playoff berth
6) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6): playoff berth

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-13)

Baltimore clinches AFC North division title with:

1) BAL win
2) PIT loss or tie

Baltimore clinches the fifth seed with:

1) BAL loss + PIT win

If Ravens win the AFC North, who would Baltimore host in the first round of the playoffs?

According to ESPN Analytics, here are the projected chances for the No. 6 seed (who would play at the No. 3 seed and AFC North champion):

Chargers: 73.7%
Steelers: 26.3%

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 30, 2024

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division title with:

1) PIT win + BAL loss

Pittsburgh clinches the fifth seed with:

1) PIT win + BAL win
2) PIT loss + LAC loss

Pittsburgh clinches the sixth seed:

1) PIT loss + LAC win

Cincinnati clinches playoff berth with:

1) CIN win + DEN loss + MIA loss or tie

Denver Broncos (9-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

Denver clinches playoff berth with:

1) DEN win or tie
2) DEN loss + MIA loss or tie + CIN loss or tie

Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New York Jets (4-12)

Miami clinches playoff berth with:

1) MIA win + DEN loss

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)

Los Angeles clinches the fifth seed with:

1) LAC win + PIT loss

Los Angeles clinches the sixth seed otherwise.

NFC Playoff Clinching Scenarios

CLINCHED

1) Detroit Lions (14-2): playoff berth
2) Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): NFC East division title, No. 2 seed
3) Los Angeles Rams (11-5): NFC West division title, playoff berth
5) Minnesota Vikings (14-2): playoff berth
6) Washington Commanders (11-5): playoff berth
7) Green Bay Packers (11-5): playoff berth

Minnesota Vikings (14-2) at Detroit Lions (14-2)

Minnesota clinches NFC North division title and first seed with:

1) MIN win

Detroit clinches NFC North division title and first seed with:

1) DET win

The loser of this game will slot into the fifth seed.

The NFC will have a 14-win wild card team. #Lions-#Vikings winner gets the No. 1 seed, the bye and home-field advantage. Loser hits the road.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 31, 2024

Los Angeles Rams (10-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

Los Angeles Rams clinch the third seed with:

1) LAR win
2) LAR loss + TB loss

Washington Commanders (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (4-12)

Washington clinches the sixth seed with:

1) WAS win
2) WAS loss + GB loss

Green Bay Packers (11-5) vs. Chicago Bears (4-12)

Green Bay clinches the sixth seed with:

1) GB win + WAS loss

Otherwise, they will be the seventh seed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-11)

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South division title with:

1) TB win or tie
2) TB loss + ATL loss or tie

Tampa Bay moves up to the third seed with:

1) TB win + LAR loss

Atlanta Falcons (8-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-12)

Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with:

1) ATL win + TB loss

Eliminated Teams from NFL Playoffs

• Arizona Cardinals
• Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears
• Cleveland Browns
• Dallas Cowboys
• Indianapolis Colts
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Las Vegas Raiders
• New England Patriots
• New Orleans Saints
• New York Giants
• New York Jets
• San Francisco 49ers
• Seattle Seahawks
• Tennessee Titans

NFL Playoffs Tiebreaking Procedures Within Division

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

NFL Players Tiebreaking Procedures Outside Of Division

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