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The NFL Combine is in the books and free agency is in full swing. That means the 2023 NFL Draft is right around the corner, and dynasty fantasy managers should prepare now for upcoming rookie drafts.
Finding quarterbacks with elite ceilings has become more important in single-QB leagues, but they often go at the top of the draft in Superflex or two-QB dynasty leagues. In single-QB formats, you're better off always taking shots on guys with those elite ceilings. In Superflex formats, decent QB2-range players are still extremely valuable, but since any quarterback can bust, chasing ceiling outcomes is still the move.
These QB dynasty rankings could see changes if a signal-caller unexpectedly slips dramatically down draft boards like Malik Willis and Matt Corral a year ago, but for now, we're assuming at least four QBs are going inside the top 10. Without further ado, let's dive in and take an early look at the 2023 QB class for dynasty fantasy football!
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Anthony Richardson, Florida
- Height: 6'4"
- Weight: 244
- Age: 20.8
- 2022 Stats: 53.8% completion, 2,549 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, 654 rushing yards, and nine rushing touchdowns.
- Rookie QB Dynasty Rank: #1
- Projected Draft Capital: Top-10
- Ceiling/Floor Comp: Cam Newton/JaMarcus Russell
Richardson caught the attention and imagination of NFL front offices and dynasty fantasy football gamers at the NFL Combine. Richardson set the QB record in the vertical jump with a leap of 40.5 inches and in the broad jump (10-foot-9). He also ran the third-fastest 40-yard dash (4.43 seconds) of all time among signal-callers. However, his size-adjusted speed score (135.4) was the best of all time (99th percentile).
While he has clear accuracy issues, he only started 13 games at Florida and might just be inexperienced instead of raw and flawed. He should be viewed as a huge gamble in the real NFL, but for fantasy football purposes, he's my No. 1 rookie QB in the 2023 class. The advantage of having a rushing quarterback has been established in fantasy and he sets up to be one of the elite mobile QBs in the entire NFL right away.
We haven't seen a quarterback close to his athletic profile since Cam Newton, who was the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. We know he can run, but if he can also become a high-volume passer a few years into his career as Josh Allen did, he has the makings of a top-three overall dynasty quarterback. It's important to know he probably has a high chance of busting, but fantasy football is all about upside, and he oozes with it.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
- Height: 6'3"
- Weight: 214
- Age: 21.4
- 2022 Stats: 66.3% completion, 3,688 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 108 rushing yards, and zero rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Draft Capital: Top-3
- Rookie QB Dynasty Rank: #2
- Ceiling/Floor Comp: Joe Burrow/Teddy Bridgewater
There is real steam for Stroud to be the No. 1 overall pick after Carolina traded up for the pick with Chicago. He seems to have the highest floor of all the draft-eligible quarterbacks in this class, but he could also turn out to be the most prolific passer. After backing up Justin Fields for one season at Ohio State, Stroud burst on the scene with 85 passing touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his two-year stint as the Buckeyes starter.
The two-time Heisman finalist was prolific and dominant in the Big 10, but his zero rushing touchdowns and limited usage on the ground is concerning for his fantasy ceiling. He flashed mobility and rushed for 34 yards against the dominant Georgia defense in the College Football Playoff Semifinals, but he didn't showcase his legs much throughout his career. That said, he'll likely need to be a volume passer with some tactical scrambling skills like Joe Burrow if he's going to reach his fantasy ceiling.
However, there's a chance he's more like a Kirk Cousins or Teddy Bridgewater signal-caller who plays in a balanced offense and needs a high touchdown rate. Stroud is a safe pick to be a starter in the league for a long time, though.
Bryce Young, Alabama
- Height: 5'10"
- Weight: 204
- Age: 21.6
- 2022 Stats: 64.5% completion, 3,328 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 185 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Draft Capital: Top-3
- Rookie QB Dynasty Rank: #3
- Ceiling/Floor Comp: Drew Brees/Baker Mayfield
Critics worried Young would be under 190 pounds, but he weighed in at 204 at the NFL Combine. That said, he did not participate in the athletic testing, so there's a chance he simply gained weight and will revert back to his natural size for the Alabama pro day. That is all speculation.
However, his prospect profile has very few question marks outside of his stature. Young stepped into the Crimson Tide offense after Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones and continued to be a prolific passer for Nick Saban. He had arguably the worst group of wide receivers and tight ends since the early days of the Saban era at Alabama but finished his collegiate career with 80 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Young posted fewer than 200 career rushing yards (sack yardage deducts from rushing yards in college), but he did find the end zone seven times on the ground in two years.
Young's size concern is probably overblown, but it could be a factor in limiting his upside. There are only a few cases of quarterbacks under 6 feet tall having real success in the NFL. He gets compared to Kyler Murray, but Murray is an elite athlete and rusher. Plus, he has missed several games over the last two seasons.
Ultimately, he's a solid prospect who is projected to be a top-three pick, but he has more factors that could negatively impact his upside than Stroud.
Will Levis, Kentucky
- Height: 6'4"
- Weight: 229
- Age: 23.7
- 2022 Stats: 65.4% completion, 2,406 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, (-)107 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Draft Capital: Top-15
- Rookie QB Dynasty Rank: #4
- Ceiling/Floor Comp: Matthew Stafford/Blake Bortles
Levis is the most controversial quarterback prospect in this class, as his counting stats aren't pretty, but his arm talent and physical tools are tantalizing. Levis played behind one of the worst offensive lines in the country during his final season at Kentucky but came into the season with real No. 1 overall pick hype. He has adequate size and strength to survive a grueling NFL season, but he'll likely need to land in a perfect fit to unlock his upside.
Levis is an older prospect who should be mostly polished, but he gets knocked for his pocket awareness. Levis was sacked 26.8 percent of the time he was pressured in 2022. Meanwhile, Stroud, Young, and Richardson were all sacked fewer than 15 percent of the time they were pressured. In a league where you have to be able to sense pressure and navigate the pocket, that's concerning, especially if he plays behind a mediocre offensive line in the early years of his career.
His ceiling comp is Matthew Stafford because he has a rocket arm, but limited mobility. He'll need a high-volume passing offense with a ton of yards and touchdowns to deliver gaudy fantasy numbers. He might have Richardson beat for the strongest arm in the class, though.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
- Height: 6'3"
- Weight: 217
- Age: 25.1
- 2022 Stats: 69.6% completion, 3,135 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, 430 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns
- Projected Draft Capital: Top-50
- Rookie QB Dynasty Rank: #5
- Ceiling/Floor Comp: Geno Smith/Kellen Mond
Full transparency -- if Hooker is selected at the end of the first round, he'll likely move into my QB4 spot ahead of Levis. Hooker is even older than Levis but has thrown for 6,080 yards, 58 touchdowns, and just five interceptions in two years at Tennessee. He doesn't turn the ball over or make back-breaking mistakes, much like the 2022 version of Geno Smith.
Additionally, he has a full resume of rushing upside with seasons of 356, 620, 620, and 430 rushing yards and four seasons of five or more rushing touchdowns. He likely won't be an elite scrambler, but he'll do just enough to provide a nice fantasy floor and edge.
At the end of the day, Hooker was a favorite to win the Heisman trophy and gained first-round hype until he tore his ACL in late November, but he'll reportedly be ready for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. It's unclear if he'll be ready for any OTA's or training camp yet, but he's far removed from surgery and is the signal-caller to monitor during the draft after the top four go off the board. If Hooker falls into Round 3, his chances of ever becoming a real dynasty asset become very slim. If he starts as a rookie, he could be the top scorer among rookie QBs, as he's nearly a finished product.
Additional Notable Prospects
If either of these two quarterbacks gets drafted before the fourth round in April, they'll be on the fantasy football radar. For now, they're far outside the top five in the rankings.
Tanner McKee, Stanford
Jaren Hall, BYU
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