RADIO
G'day RotoBallers! For many of us, the playoffs loom large, meaning production is going to be key moving forward. Scouring the waiver wire is getting harder with each passing week. Narrowing your focus is a viable strategy, especially if you are clinging to life in your league. Trading players is a great way to go about this, allowing both managers to walk away feeling validated.
However, executing a trade can be harder said than done. Not all managers love the idea of a trade, especially if they believe they will be the attempted target of a fantasy heist. Ensure you know your league and who might be willing to consider a player swap. While the option does exist, I recommend not having a league veto system. Ensure your commissioner is knowledgeable and transparent, and allow them to dictate trade decisions.
With all that out of the way, here are our current sell-high and buy-low candidates as you prepare for Week 12 of the fantasy basketball season.
Jaren Jackson Jr., F - Memphis Grizzlies
Baller Move: Sell High
After a slow start to the season, Jackson has finally been able to turn things around over the past two weeks. During that time he has been the 10th-ranked player in standard leagues, averaging 22.2 points per game, adding 5.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.2 blocks, and 3.0 three-pointers. Not surprisingly, his uptick in value coincided with the return of both Ja Morant and Marcus Smart. By shifting the defensive focus away from Jackson, he not only got better looks at the basket, but he was able to shift his focus to protecting the rim.
Although he is producing at the level many had expected coming into the season, recent events are likely to impact his role moving forward. Morant and Smart are slated to be out of the rotation for multiple weeks, with Morant having already been ruled out for the remainder of the season. On the surface, shortsighted managers could view this as a positive for Jackson, seeing him move up in the offensive pecking order. However, as we saw over the first two months, usage and offensive opportunities are not necessarily going to translate into fantasy value.
If you too are skeptical about what Jackson's production might be over the coming weeks, moving off him might be a viable strategy. With a generous sample size from last year outlining what he can do, it might be a process that doesn't require a lot of effort. With that said, he should still be able to flirt with second-round value ROS, meaning you would want to be targeting a top-15 talent in return. If you are in a position where his blocks are not essential, this should be an easy decision.
R.J. Barrett, F - Toronto Raptors
Baller Move: Sell High
Since returning home to Canada, Barrett has thrived. He has been a top-75 player over the past two weeks, compiling averages of 21.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.3 three-pointers. More importantly, he has shot 56.1 percent from the field and 77.4 percent from the line. Known primarily as a scorer, he has been able to dabble in other categories, while maintaining career-best efficiency.
This has certainly been a feel-good story for Barrett, both from a real-life and a fantasy perspective. The question moving forward is whether his hot shooting is sustainable and whether his peripheral contributions are simply a smokescreen. Based on what we have seen throughout his career, managers are well within their rights to be cautious when evaluating his ROS value.
Erring on the side of caution, let's say that his percentages regress to the mean. He could quickly go back to being nothing more than a points specialist. Something that also needs to be factored into any decision-making is whether the Raptors are done making moves. If they do opt to move on from Pascal Siakam, Barrett could find himself as arguably their go-to scoring option. This could go one of two ways, depending on our initial query; whether his efficiency can stick. For anyone averse to risk, shipping him off for a top-100 player might be a smart move.
Stephen Curry, G - Golden State Warriors
Baller Move: Buy Low
Has the time come for the Warriors to move on? Currently sitting outside the play-in picture, many think that it might be time to stop living in the past. As the face of the franchise, Curry is always going to be at the forefront of any criticism, even if it is not warranted. However, in this case, perhaps is it warranted. A perennial first-round player, Curry has been underwhelming this season. He has been outside the top 50 over the past month, averaging 23.1 points per game on 40.8 percent shooting from the floor. He is also sitting at 5.1 assists and 1.0 steals, well below where managers would like him to be.
If we condense our sample size, we can see that Curry has shot better than 40 percent only twice in the past eight games. The Warriors have lost five of those games, the most recent being an embarrassing loss to the Pelicans. While this shouldn't all fall on Curry's shoulders, his slump certainly has something to do with the struggles currently facing the team.
The question now is, are we concerned that Curry is declining in front of our eyes? Knowing what we know about him, it's relatively safe to assume he will be better than this, although perhaps not to the level we have seen in the past. His days of being a top-10 player could very well be behind him, at least when we look at sustainable production. If his manager is battling for a playoff spot and you can afford to take a small risk, throwing out a top-30 asset, while previously unfathomable, is not the worst idea in the world.
Michael Porter Jr., F - Denver Nuggets
Baller Move: Buy Low
It's been a quiet yet serviceable season for Porter, currently chugging along at top-75 value. However, over the past seven games, he has scored single digits on three occasions. On the nights when his shot has been dropping, he has still only managed more than 20 points twice. A continued lack of supporting stats makes it hard for Porter to salvage poor shooting nights, resulting in significant fluctuations in his overall value.
As the clear third option on offense, Porter should be able to maintain comfortable top-100 value moving forward. He should also be able to increase his production on the glass. Over the same period, he is averaging fewer than 5.0 rebounds per game, well down on his season average of 7.1. He has also only managed 0.5 combined steals and blocks, oddly low even for Porter.
The Nuggets are one of the most consistent teams in the league, so Porter's role is secure moving forward. It is unlikely he does enough to crack the top 50 this season but even those who aren't aligned with Porter have to admit he should walk into top-90 value. If you can swing a trade involving any top-120 player who has been overperforming of late, go ahead and make it a done deal.
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