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Nick's top College Football betting picks - team over/under win totals for the 2021 CFB season. He analyzes Vegas' futures bets and recommends top expert bets.
With the college football season rapidly approaching, we'll take a deep dive into some futures betting opportunities.
Entering each year, fans of every team ramp up their expectations in the hopes that this season will be the year, and I'm here to quell that excitement for some teams, or to ramp it up for others as we look into which teams have value in the Over/Under wins totals market.
As the 2021 college football season approaches, we will look through some of the available futures bets available. Every week this season, we will bring you expert betting picks and content to help guide you through this college football season, including some expert preseason Heisman Trophy betting picks.
Ole Miss
When Coach Lane Kiffin, known to some by the Joey Freshwater moniker, came to Oxford, Mississippi, he came with less fanfare than his previous SEC stop at Tennessee in 2009. Humbling stops at Tennessee, USC and Alabama forced Kiffin to remake his reputation as a coach at Florida Atlantic, which is exactly just what he did. Kiffin parlayed his three-year run of success with the Owls into the Ole Miss Rebels job last year and brought with him the high-flying passing offense that has taken over college football. Junior quarterback Matt Corral is back at the helm and is a sleeper Heisman pick this year after throwing 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last year (two road losses - 6 INTs at Arkansas, and 5 INTs at LSU - crushed Corral's statistics). The Rebels relied on the the 14th highest scoring offense to finish with a 5-5 overall record that culminated with an Outback Bowl win over Indiana.
Joining Corral in the backfield is electric running back Jerrion Ealy, who gained 1,429 yards on the ground last year as a sophomore. With top receiver Elijah Moore off to the New York Jets, Kiffin turned to the transfer portal to pick up some capable weapons to keep the passing attack strong. The defense, will be the difference-make that determines whether Ole Miss can build on the momentum from Kiffin's first year in charge. With nine defensive starters returning, another year under the same defensive system, plus steady Maryland linebacker transfer Chance Campbell, the expectation should be for significant improvement on that side of the ball. Sophomore edge rusher Cedric Johnson, who garnered 3 sacks in limited playing time as a freshman, is a ripe candidate for a defensive breakout this year.
The 2020 schedule appears relatively favorable for the Rebels. A road trip to Tuscaloosa is the only game on the calendar that can be safely penciled in as a loss, and the SEC East crossover opponents Vanderbilt and Tennessee are about as easy as it gets this year. The out-of-conference schedule features a less-than-intimidating gauntlet of Austin Peay, Tulane, Liberty and Louisville - all likely wins. Sweeping the non-conference matchups, plus conference wins over Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi State would give the Rebels the total they need, with several other toss-ups (LSU, Auburn) still on the schedule.
Pick: Ole Miss over 7.5 wins (-115) (FanDuel)
Tulane
Last year's 6-6 campaign came with a bumpy and late-breaking 4-2 stretch to finish the year. Last year's offensive coordinator Will Hall left to become the head coach at Southern Miss, and was replaced by a familiar face - his former college roommate Chip Long. The offense returns 9 starters from last year's team, including sophomore quarterback Michael Pratt who flashed potential in his true freshman campaign at times. On defense, coordinator Jack Curtis was dismissed and replaced with former Duke defensive backs coach Chris Hampton. The defense also loses stalwart defensive linemen Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample who will both be playing in the NFL this year.
The offensive line should be a relative strength for the Green Wave, with seven players on the roster who made at least two starts last year, including four-year starter Corey Dublin at left guard. Coach Willie Fritz's offense does have big question marks at running back and receiver, where inconsistency has plagued the team throughout Fritz's five-year tenure. The defensive line, meanwhile, will be forced to turn over to several youngsters in the hopes that they can replace former All- American Patrick Johnson and his fellow edge rusher Cameron Sample, who rated as Pro Football Focus' top defensive lineman last year.
The Tulane schedule in 2021 is brutal, to say the least. In non-conference play, the team draws Oklahoma, UAB and Ole Miss, and in conference play, the toss-up games they competed closely in 2020, such as East Carolina and SMU, are on the road. There is no obvious path to bowl contention without significant overperformance. Every game, aside from the Morgan State doozy, will be a battle as Tulane fights for each victory.
Pick: Tulane under 5.5 wins (-145) (FanDuel)
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North Carolina
Coach Mack Brown has turned the North Carolina football program around in two years time, as they enter the 2021 season as the Associated Press' 10th ranked team, just a few years removed from a 2-9 performance in 2018. Last year's 8-4 season was made possible by a stellar rushing attack with two 1,000-yard rushers in Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, who have moved on to the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets, respectively. The Tar Heels also lose their top two receivers - Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown - and their defensive captain linebacker Chazz Surratt to the NFL. While Coach Brown has replaced the stable of talent in Chapel Hill, the volume of departing talent should temper their sky-high expectations in 2021.
The offense is led by junior quarterback and likely-NFL first round draft pick Sam Howell, who I wrote about in our 2021 Heisman betting picks preview. Howell's 2021 supporting cast will look awfully different, as Tennessee transfer running back Ty Chandler will take the reins in the backfield, and a cadre of new receivers including Josh Downs, Khafre Brown and the 6-foot-5 Beau Corrales, will need to step up in the absence of Newsome and Dyami Brown's 109 combined catches lost from last year. The defense has some talented individual players, but was far too inconstent last year, allowing 53 points to an average Wake Forest squad, while earlier shutting down an upstart Boston College team on the road. The young sophomore cornerbacks Storm Duck and Tony Grimes have immense potential, but will be challenged early and often to see if their inexperience will show.
The Tar Heels averaged 5.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line last year, ranking 5th in the NCAA and a good indication that they made the most of opportunities on offense. The likely regression of that figure, as result of more settled field goals and a less experienced supporting cast, could be worrying. The schedule includes difficult road games at Notre Dame, Pitt, Virginia Tech, and NC State, and a mid-October home game against Miami that could decide the ACC Coastal division. Over the past eight years, the ACC Coastal has sent eight different divisional champions to the ACC Championship game (counting Notre Dame last year). Expecting the Coastal division chaos to step aside for a year, with unexpected scenarios like Georgia Tech or Wake Forest pulling off a stunning upset of the Heels, is something only a fool would expect after watching this division for the better part of the last decade.
Pick: North Carolina under 10 wins (-139) (Barstool Sportsbook)
Tennessee
Tennessee replaced former coach Jeremy Pruitt with former UCF coach Josh Heupel this offseason, and the floodgates of the transfer portal opened wide. The Volunteers had over 40 players in the transfer portal at one point this offseason, and Heupel had to scramble to try to put together a mediocre recruiting class after most of their highly ranked 2021 recruits bowed out of their original commitments. Only two starters on offense and five starters on defense will return, and the two-deep depth chart will be littered full of freshmen and sophomores, a recipe for disaster playing in the SEC. Every position is up for audition in camp, and it will be interesting to see how this season shakes out for the Vols who went only 3-7 a season ago.
At quarterback, the team has battled through a four-man competition between holdovers Harrison Bailey and Brian Maurer, and transfers Joe Milton (Michigan) and Hendon Hooker (Virginia Tech). None of the four quarterbacks, however, fit into the air raid offense that Heupel ran with great success in Orlando. The leading returning rusher, sophomore Jabari Small, has only 26 career carries to his name. On the offensive line, the team will be forced to turn to at least three inexperienced starters, which could be highly problematic in the competitive SEC. For those looking for a glimmer of hope, senior strong safety Trevon Flowers decided to stick it out in Ol' Rocky Top for his final season and was the team's second leading tackler in 2020.
The schedule provides the usual SEC gauntlet with some non-conference breathing room. In non-conference, Tennessee gets three likely wins over Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech and South Alabama, and a home game against Pitt could be competitive. In conference, however, is another story. Outside of a November 27 date with Vanderbilt, the Vols will likely be double-digit underdogs in most of their remaining games.
Pick: Tennessee Under 6 wins (-120) (Draftkings)
A few more team win totals I'm monitoring:
- Kent State over 4.5 wins
- Clemson under 11.5 wins
- Auburn under 7.5 wins
- Pitt over 7 wins
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
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