X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2019 Season in Review - Blake Snell

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher (SP) Blake Snell had a letdown in 2019 after his stellar Cy Young season the year before. Mike Schwarzenbach examines the reasons behind his drop and whether he will be a strong value for fantasy baseball owners in 2020 based on ADP.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Blake Snell had an excellent 2019 season for someone that was considered to be a bust. Sure, the 2018 AL Cy Young award winner didn't live up to his 28th overall average draft position, but he wasn't the one who said to draft him that high... Throw in some time missed with an elbow injury and Snell has become an afterthought in the discussion of elite American League starters.

Snell's stat line from this past season isn't pretty. He went 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 147 strikeouts. None of those numbers scream "fantasy ace" which is what he was drafted to be. However, if we take a look under the hood, Snell's skill-based numbers were actually remarkably similar to his 2018 season, making him a potential steal on draft day 2020.

So why the discrepancy between his 2018 and 2019 numbers? A lot of it boils down to an elbow injury that caused him to miss about two months and also some good old-fashioned bad baseball luck.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

The elbow injury isn't something that can be predicted and should not affect him into next season. Snell underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow in late July. He recovered from that injury and make a few short appearances at the end of the season. He also started Game 3 of the ALDS vs Houston and threw 58 pitches the day before coming in for a two-out save in Game 4, so it's clear that fantasy managers don't need to worry about his elbow more than any typical starter.

The luck factor of his game, however, is where we can really see that his skill level is right where it's always been.

Before we proceed, let's make one thing clear. Snell is not as good as he was in 2018. He's also not as bad as he was in 2019. His skill-based metrics put him right in the middle of those two outlier seasons and are right up there with some of the best pitchers in the game. Among pitchers that threw at least 100 innings, Snell was 10th in the Majors with a 3.31 xFIP and 12th with a 3.56 SIERA. Both of those numbers are significantly better than his 4.29 ERA, which itself was inflated thanks to one start where he gave up six runs in a third of an inning. Toss out that one obvious clunker and his ERA is a much more respectable 3.79.

Throw in Snell's 3.32 FIP and all of the skill-based indicators suggest his ERA should have been much better than it was. In fact, Snell had the fifth-biggest gap between FIP and ERA suggesting he's due for positive regression moving forward. The regression seems even more obvious when you break down his batted ball data.

 

The Hard Facts

In 2018, Snell gave up 18.1 percent soft contact, 46.1 percent medium contact, and 35.7 percent hard contact.

In 2019, those numbers change to 18.6 percent hard contact, 46.6 percent medium contact, and 34.8 percent hard contact.

Sure, he gave up a few more line drives and pulled balls in 2019 than he did in 2018, but overall his batted ball profile is as consistent as you'll find in the bigs. The main differences in his two seasons come down to two key stats that are largely out of the pitcher's control: BABIP and HR/FB rate.

Snell was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball when it comes to batting average on balls in play (BABIP). His .343 BABIP against was the third-worst number in the Majors and over 100 points higher than the .241 figure batters hit against him in 2018. This caused his batting average against to shoot up from an elite .176 in 2018 all the way up to .240 in 2019. As we already examined, Snell's batted balls against were virtually the same as his Cy Young season so could things really be as simple as more balls falling in for hits?

That very well may be the case when we look at his home run to fly ball rate (HR/FB). Snell's HR/FB rate wasn't egregiously higher than league average this season, but it was almost five percent higher than his 2018 mark, a massive difference when talking about a one-season sample size.

More batters on base and more fly balls leaving the yard is generally not a recipe for pitching success. Add that on top of the fact Snell was a bit lucky in the BABIP and HR/FB rate departments in 2018 and you've got a third-round draft bust.

Based on what we've seen from Snell so far in his Major League career, expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2020. We've already seen his floor this past season, and even in a disappointing season, he put up 147 strikeouts in 107 innings. His 33.3 percent strikeout rate is among the best in the Majors. His 17.7 percent swinging-strike rate, one of the best predictive metrics for strikeout success, was by far the best in baseball. The strikeouts will be there for Snell and the rest of his numbers should bounce back in a big way. Pencil Snell in for ~12 wins to go along with a low-3.00 ERA and a ton of strikeouts.

This is an elite pitcher entering the prime of his career, coming off a down season. Treat Snell like a must-start fantasy ace that can be drafted a round or two behind what he cost this season.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF