RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~370
CURRENT ADP: 468
ANALYSIS: Martin Perez has seen an awfully volatile start to his young career. After displaying the best April in the MLB in 2014, (1.42 ERA through five starts, two CG shutouts, 5-0 record) he went down in May with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. He wouldn't return until after the 2015 All-Star break, posting a 4.46 ERA over 14 starts. Perez suffered some of the worst luck of any pitcher in the league, as his 3.40 FIP would suggest he was much better than his ERA shows. There's no reason to assume that bad luck will continue, making it reasonable to expect his ERA will be back in the mid-3.00 range in 2016. This alone makes him more valuable than his ADP suggests.
Highly-touted prospect Chi Chi Gonzalez is looming behind him, but Perez will have some time to prove himself while Yu Darvish completes the last few months of his rehab from Tommy John. Also, odds are low that Derek Holland stays healthy for an entire year. With the upside that Perez has shown in the past, he could absolutely be a worthwhile gamble in the late stages of the draft.
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