2015 Fantasy Football Sleeper: Wide Receiver Kendall Wright

Last year I wrote about Kendall Wright as a wide receiver likely to see an increase in touchdowns following a 94 catch season with just two scores. He ended up having a more than respectable six touchdowns on 57 catches. Unfortunately the touchdown increase was just about the only improvement in Wright’s numbers last years. 

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The Titans used three quarterbacks last year and none had a completion percentage that ranked in the top 25. It’s hard for any receiver to find success under those circumstances, especially so for a possession receiver. For comparison, in Wright’s successful 2013 season Ryan Fitzpatrick ranked 14th with 62%.

In 2015 Wright will almost certainly get better QB play as the two options to start are Zach Mettenberger and Marcus Mariota. Last year, Mettenberger was the most accurate of the Titans QBs and it should come as no surprise that his starts were Wright’s most successful stretch of games last year. The 5 games that both players started together resulted in 19 receptions for 337 yards and a touchdown. That’s a 60-1078-3 line over a full season. It’s nothing flashy but Wright’s FantasyPros ADP is 159 right now, essentially undrafted. Anytime you can get a 1000 yard receiver that late in the draft it’s an absolute steal. 

At this point Mettenberger isn’t even the favorite start. That would be 2nd overall pick Marcus Mariota. I’m going to make an assumption that if Mariota starts right away it’s because he is NFL-ready and a better QB than Mettenberger. Unfortunately this isn’t always the case but the early reports on Mariota contain phrases like “he’s the real deal” and “has deadly accuracy”. These statements made during offseason practices must always be taken with a grain of salt but I really like Mariota and I strongly believe if he starts ahead of Mettenberger it will be because he is the better QB. Mariota was an extremely efficient QB in college with a top 10 completion percentage in two of his three seasons as a starter (5th and 7th) and showed great placement and timing on short routes. This strikes me as the ideal QB for Kendall Wright. Pairing an accurate QB with a sure-handed receiver just makes sense. 

Despite a disappointing season last year, Kendall Wright still flashed the same skills that made him a solid receiver in standard and an excellent PPR receiver in 2013. In both ‘13 and ‘14 he was in Pro Football Focus’s top ten in yards after catch per reception (6.2 in 2013, 6.6 in 2014), 2nd in missed tackles with 19 in 2013, and 7th in 2014 (tied with Odell Beckham on nearly 40 less catches). These are fantastic skills for a possession receiver and are reasons that Kendall Wright was able to nearly match a guy like Jarvis Landry in yards last year despite 27 fewer catches.

What numbers should we expect from Wright in 2015? Wright’s 2014 numbers of 57 receptions and 715 yards would be the floor for me. That was over 14 games too, if you project those numbers over 16 games it’s 65 catches and 817 yards. That’s not a bad for a guy going near the very end of drafts, but I actually expect better numbers. It is Marcus Mariota’s rookie season but this is a guy I (and most others) believe to be much better than Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst and probably better than Zach Mettenberger. I think 80 receptions and 950+ yards is a more than reasonable expectation. Wright will never be a big touchdown guy but he should find himself somewhere in between his ‘13 and ‘14 touchdown rates settling in at 4-5 touchdowns. Not bad for your 5th WR in standard and even in PPR leagues his ADP sits at 123. With those numbers, Kendall Wright is a weekly play in PPR leagues and remains a fantastic bargain. The Titans passing offense should see considerable improvement in 2015 and Kendall Wright will be a big part of that.

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