RADIO
We're treated with a solid seven-game slate tonight and there are a variety of different ways you can go with your builds. Giannis and Jokic are in their own stratosphere in terms of salary, so you'll very likely need to pick one or the other unless a ton of value opens up throughout the day. We also have Dejounte Murray and Stephen Curry in two of the top game environments on the slate, Indiana in an elite spot against the Spurs, and a classic Jimmy Butler narrative spot against the Wolves.
There are seven teams playing in the second half of a back-to-back set tonight, which you can check out via the graphic below. The key names to watch out for injury news for are Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Ayo Dosunmu. Bones Highland, Alex Caruso, and Goga Bitadze are also questionable heading into tonight's games.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/12/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Donovan Mitchell - PG/SG, UTA vs. SAC ($8,600 DK, $8,100 FD)
Mitchell is underpriced here, plain and simple. He hasn't been his typical consistent self lately, dropping 22, 33, and 37 DK points in three of his last five, but the usage has still been there and that's all we need to care about when the matchup is this juicy. It's not like he has been bad, either, as he posted 48.5 DK points (vs. OKC) on 3/6 and 61 DK points (vs. HOU) just six games ago. Those were advantageous matchups, sure, but this one might be better than both of them. The Kings are allowing the most fantasy points per game to shooting guards this season, with their biggest weak points being the points allowed and three-pointers made categories. Mitchell averages about 20 shot attempts and 10 three-point attempts per game this season, so the volume and opportunity to succeed is all but guaranteed to be there for him tonight. Utah is the top-ranked team in my model due to the game's fast projected pace, the Jazz' high implied total, and the Kings' ineptitude defensively. Get to the best player on the team facing off against them, especially when he's underpriced.
Devin Vassell - SG/SF, SAS vs. IND ($5,200 DK, $5,200 FD)
Vassell has posted two straight dud performances, going for 19.75 and 18 DK points against the Jazz and Raptors, respectively. He shot just 6-for-16 (1-for-9 3PT) in those games, but it has to be noted that his opponents were among the better defensive teams in the league. That is definitely not the case tonight. The Pacers rank 26th in defensive rating and they've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game over their last 15 contests. This is also the top game environment on the slate overall, rating out first in projected pace, implied total, and combined fantasy points per game allowed. If we're going to have a shootout on our hands, you can expect Vassell to be involved enough to make an impact in DFS lineups. He averaged nearly 30 DK points in the six games prior to his last two, and that's right about where I'm projecting him tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton - PG/SG, IND vs. SAS ($9,000 DK, $8,300 FD) | Better on FanDuel
This is just an incredible game environment for a player like Haliburton, who is in really solid form coming in with 44.9 and 49.5 FD points over his last two games. In fact, he has exceeded 40 FD points in 9-of-11 games since coming over from Sacramento, as he has assumed a steady scoring role while also providing plenty of rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Malcolm Brogdon and Lance Stephenson won't play tonight, which opens up a little usage and boosts Haliburton's floor and ceiling as the Pacers will need to rely on him more as the primary scorer and playmaker. The Spurs have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards over their last 15 games, and they've allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. They also play at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA and this game has the highest implied total on the slate at 237 points. You can't really ask for a much better situation for Hali to do his thing, and his salary isn't even all that prohibitive. Fire away.
Brandon Williams - PG, POR vs. WAS ($4,900 FD) | Fanduel-only
Klay Thompson - SG/SF, GSW vs. MIL ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD) | Better on Fanduel
Others to consider: Tre Jones ($3,500 DK), Jordan Clarkson ($4,700 DK, $4,600 FD), Mike Conley ($5,400 DK, $5,100 FD), Lonnie Walker IV ($4,300 DK), Jordan Poole ($5,700 DK), Raul Neto ($4,000 DK), Duncan Robinson ($3,300 DK), Josh Hart ($5,900 FD), Duane Washington Jr. ($3,100 DK)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Duarte - SG/SF, IND vs. SAS ($4,900 DK, 4,800 FD)
Duarte runs very hot-and-cold from a fantasy points perspective, which can make him a very frustrating player to try to nail down in DFS lineups. However, a lot of that variance is due to fluctuations in his playing time, as he's generally been putting up at least 30 DK points when he sees at least 30 minutes this season. His ceiling is really high for a player in this salary range, which makes him a very attractive target in tournaments tonight. The rookie put up 47.25 and 47.75 DK points over 39 and 34 minutes in a mid-January stretch, so that's the type of game that's in his potential outcomes, depending on what kind of minutes-load he receives. Brogdon and Stephenson won't suit up tonight, so the chances should be there for the young playmaker. In a small 70.8 minute sample, Duarte's 27.4% usage rate ranks first on the Pacers and his 1.01 FPTS/min would certainly get the job done at his low salary. As detailed throughout this article, the game environment here is the best on the slate, so all of this is adding up to a golden opportunity for the too-cheap Duarte.
Rui Hachimura - PF, WAS vs. POR ($3,200 DK) | DraftKings-only
Hachimura makes a ton of sense as a value filler over on DraftKings, but I wouldn't touch him (outside of large-field GPP's) at $4,600 on FanDuel. He has crushed value in three of his last four games, going for at least 25.25 DK points and playing at least 24 minutes in each of them. He has been extremely efficient from the field, shooting an absurd 20-for-31 (6-for-11 3PT) from the floor while pitching in modest rebound totals and a few steals. We don't need him to do much of anything to hit value, but going up against Portland is the ideal opportunity for him to keep the train rolling along. The quasi-G-League Blazers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards over their last seven (and 15) games, and they've allowed the most fantasy points per game overall over their last seven contests as well. Kristaps Porzingis being ruled out secures Hachimura's minutes and could result in some additional usage, making him an even more appealing value plug-and-play.
Jimmy Butler - SG/SF/PF, MIA vs. MIN ($8,500 DK, $8,000 FD)
Others to consider: CJ Elleby ($3,700 FD), Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,300 DK), Drew Eubanks ($4,300 FD), Aaron Gordon ($5,000 FD), Thaddeus Young ($3,400 DK, $3,700 FD), Jalen Smith ($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD), Corey Kispert ($3,800 DK), Elijah Hughes ($3,000 DK),Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200 DK, $11,800 FD)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic - C, DEN vs. TOR ($12,100 DK, $11,600 FD) | Better on FanDuel
The last time I recommended the current MVP frontrunner, he went ahead and had his best game of the season with an absolutely unheard-of 95 DK points. He has posted 75.25, 77, and a ho-hum 54.5 DK points since that game. Even more insane is that his usage rate (36.3%) and FPTS/min (2.02) have seen huge bumps during that four-game stretch, and his season-long usage rate (32.5%) and FPTS/min (1.50) were already among the highest in the league. It is not a good idea to fade this guy, on any slate. While Giannis is more expensive and facing the Warriors on the road - a team that ranks second in defensive rating and allows the fourth-least fantasy points per game in the NBA - Jokic gets a decidedly easier matchup against the Raptors at home. Toronto isn't a bad defensive team by any means as they rank 14th in defensive rating and allow the seventh-least fantasy points per game to centers, but Jokic is truly playing at such a high level that he's forcing you to get to him due to the unmatched ceiling he possesses. Joker is due for a major bounceback performance tonight after he shot just 9-for-21 from the field (0-for-8 from 3PT) two nights ago.
Daniel Gafford - C, WAS vs. POR ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD) | Better on DraftKings
Others to consider: Kevon Looney ($4,400 DK, $4,900 FD), Rudy Gobert ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD), Jakob Poeltl ($7,500 DK, $7,100 FD), Bam Adebayo ($8,100 DK)
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