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Thunder Dan Palyo explains his 2021 NFL DFS strategy. He lays out his process for building winning cash game and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week one is almost here and that means that the NFL (and of course fantasy football, NFL DFS, and betting on props/games) is back in our lives!
Welcome to my 2021 NFL strategy guide for both FanDuel and DraftKings. I am “Thunder Dan” and I will assume that if you are reading this, you want to become a better NFL DFS player this year. That's always my goal as well, in addition to bringing our RotoBaller premium members the best content week in and week out.
This year I decided to construct this article a little differently. I have organized my thoughts into a list of "dos" and "don'ts" as I attempt to explain what strategies have made me a successful NFL DFS player over the years and what pitfalls I have fallen into - which often happen to be the same pitfalls that trip up other players as well.
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1. You should...play cash games
There is a saying in DFS that cash is king, and NFL DFS is a sport that lends itself well to cash games. I play a lot more cash in NFL and NBA than I do in sports like hockey or baseball (or even Nascar, PGA, MMA) where there is a lot more variance. Football games aren't completely predictable, but most weeks we can feel pretty good about the volume of passing attempts, rushing attempts, and targets that our QBs, backs, and receivers are going to get.
One thing I would recommend is to play your optimal cash lineup in a variety of cash-type contests. Spreading out your layout among 50/50s, double-ups, and H2Hs is going to minimize your risk as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket (say a 50 dollar double-up). I also would always put that lineup in a small field GPP and play it in some triple-ups or quints as well as some 3-mans, 5-mans, and 10-man contests to maximize your ceiling if your lineup happens to be "the nuts." We often refer to this strategy as a "cash game ladder" and if things go well you can 3-5x your money instead of just doubling up.
2. You should...pay down at QB in cash games.
Listen, I know we would all feel really good playing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Kyler Murray in our cash lineups every week. These guys have a high ceiling/floor combo just about every week due to their high octane offenses and rushing upside. However, paying 7-8k on DK or 8-9k on FD for a QB simply isn't the most cost-efficient way to build cash lineups.
The reality is that scoring across the QB position is the flattest of any position and most weeks the median projection for the highest and lowest-projected QBs varies by ten points or less.
There aren't many weeks when a high price QB is going to go lap the field in fantasy points, not in today's NFL where passing games reign supreme and even QBs on losing teams end up throwing for a lot of yards or accumulating garbage time stats. I wouldn't totally punt the QB position with a risky rookie or a journeyman QB on a bad team, but there are going to be plenty of cheap or mid-tier QBs we can comfortably play in cash games that will save us cap space that we will want to use on backs and receivers. Speaking of running backs...
3. You should...pay up at RB in cash games
There simply aren't that many "bell-cow" running backs left in the NFL, so when we have players like Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry who we can safely project for 25+ touches a game, you should lock those workhorse backs in good matchups into your cash builds. Yes, there is an argument on DraftKings to targeting some cheaper pass-catching backs with target floors in cash (think JD McKissic last year), but on Fanduel where touchdowns are king, you're going to want three-down backs who are going to get goalline carries and heavy usage.
4. You should...eat some chalk, even in GPPs.
There is a popular misconception that you have to find all the lowest-owned players that go off to win a tournament. And while you need a huge number to take down a huge tournament like the Milly-Maker (more on that later), you don't need the exact optimal lineup to win smaller tournaments. And if a popular player that is 20-30% owned goes off for a monster game, you simply won't win without them. The most popular plays are going to be a lot of the best plays, so mix in your favorite chalk plays with your lower-owned pivots in order to build some unique lineups. You don't have to fade ALL the chalk, nor would I advise it.
5. You should....be correlating GPP lineups (stacking) as much as possible!
Correlating your lineups with stacks is imperative. How much stacking you do each week in each lineup is something you are going to have to figure out. A simple two-man stack (QB-WR) is a good start but there are certainly times you are going to want to run three players from the same offense or at the very least, three players from the same game in a game stack.
Finding that game that goes off and then finding the right combination of players from that game that do the scoring can be challenging, but it's the path to climbing up the leaderboards in tournaments.
Now, what about those pitfalls I was talking about? Let's start with a very common bankroll management mistake that too many people make right out of the gates.
1. You shouldn't...play the Milly Makers.
Listen, I am as excited for this season to start as the next person. And trust me, the urge to dump a bunch of lineups in a Milly-maker and hit it big in week one (especially since DK has a 5-dollar Milly in week one, too) is coursing through my veins. But I'm not going to do it. Do you know why? Because I am not an MME player and if you're not either then you shouldn't be competing against players who are better at it than you and I. If you're not someone with a lot of experience using an optimizer and also someone with a bankroll large enough to fund 150 lineups into those tournaments, you should be playing elsewhere.
Instead, you should be playing more single entry and 3-max tournaments. You're going to have a better chance of cashing or winning these tournaments.
2. You shouldn't...roster a player based on just one stat or matchup.
There's always a "flow chart" play of the week that the public gets behind based on a DvP matchup, right? Should you roster a player based solely on the perceived matchup? Should you exclusively target receivers who are projected for a certain number of targets only? Are you picking a QB or RB only based on a projected game script that their team will be leading or trailing based on a Vegas spread?
When I create cheat sheets every week, I try to represent 7-10 different stats, matchups, and ratings for every player. Not every player I endorse is going to check ALL those boxes each week, but they are definitely going to check the majority of them. There are more stats today than we sometimes know what to do with, but that also means you can dig in during the week and really thoroughly vette every play to make sure you roster the guys you really feel strongly about.
3. You shouldn't...ignore games with lower Vegas totals.
Vegas is wrong more often than we think. Beating the bookie isn't always easy, but we shouldn't trust Vegas exclusively when it comes to determining which games we want to target. Games with high totals can bust just as easily as games with low totals can go off. And furthermore, we can get big statistical performances from players even in a game where their offense doesn't score a bunch of points. I would really avoid being too hyperfocused on the top 3-4 totals each week or completely crossing off games that have the lowest totals, too. I just think that's a poor process.
4. You shouldn't...pay for defenses.
My buddy Mark Kieffer absolutely nailed this point in his strategy piece earlier this week, but it's something I want to touch on, too. Paying up for defenses is an exercise in futility most weeks. Defenses are usually priced up based on matchups and Vegas totals. But the highest-scoring defenses any given week aren't from games where a good defense shuts out an opponent and racks up sacks. They are almost always from games where a defense created a number of turnovers and scored a defensive touchdown (or two) or a special teams TD. Play cheap defenses in both cash and GPP lineups, and don't be afraid to target defenses in games with high totals as more offensive possessions are going to mean more potential for turnovers and defensive stats.
5. You shouldn't...try to play everyone.
I was having a good conversation about this with my buddy Lee Park (@theLPDFS) who is a long-time pal of mine and a damn good DFS player. We were both talking about how it can be so tempting to continue to add lineups as the week goes along and grab exposure to more spots come Saturday and Sunday as there is a serious FOMO effect that can take hold with the nature of how long we have to wait for the main slate to kick off.
The reality is, however, that as you continue to add players to your playing pool, you are diluting your chances of having a big week if your core group of players go off. If you're an MME player who is building 150 lineups or more every week, then it makes sense to spread your exposure out over a larger player pool, but the idea of "I better grab a share or two of this player who is getting more buzz as the week goes along JUST IN CASE he goes off" is not productive. Stick to your guns, you've done your homework, and play the players you have the most confidence in each week, regardless of who the rest of the industry is buzzing about.
If you're looking for more great NFL DFS strategy content, you need to read Mark Kieffler's DraftKings strategy article here! Thanks for tuning in and good luck this season! I hope you rely on our free and premium content at RotoBaller for seasonal, DFS, and sports betting all season long!
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