Welcome to our last chapter of our Breakout/Busts segment. Hopefully you've enjoyed the series and gleaned some useful info to use as you prepare for the 2016 season, but most importantly I hope I haven't bored you to death.

This last chapter focuses on pitchers who failed to live up to expectations in 2015. This group includes five pitchers who were ranked within the top 25 going into 2015. Only one of them was ranked in the top 50 come season end (Jordan Zimmermann - 36th).

In addition to focusing on these disappointing campaigns I'll provide some context as to whether they will bounce back or if troubling times are ahead. Let's get started.

 

Bust Players at SP

Jordan Zimmermann (DET - SP)

2015 Statistics: 201.2 IP, 13 W, 3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 164 K, 22 QS

Let's start with a our new $110M man. Fresh off a Tigers-agree-to-deal-with-starter-jordan-zimmermann/">five-year deal with the Detroit Tigers, Zimmermann serves as the replacement to Max Scherzer in the Tigers rotation, but fans should temper expectations for JZim to replicate Scherzer's success.

Zimmermann got paid for his 2.66 ERA in 2014, not his 3.66/1.20 line over 201 innings in 2015. He had his worst season across the board, setting career-highs in ERA, WHIP, HR/9 (1.07), and Opponents' average (.260). He was unable to maintain the improvements he made to his walk rate and strikeout rate in 2014, seeing both metrics fall back to his career averages.

There were three changes to Zimmermann's arsenal in 2015. The first was a decrease in velocity, losing almost a full tick on the fastball. Check out the changes for Zimmermann's heater. That minor drop in speed was a major part of his demise.

The second difference was his increased use of the curveball. He used 15% of the time in contrast to 8% in 2014 and it was  effective, limiting hitters to a .198 average. He'll need to emphasize the curve more if he cannot regain the speed on his fastball. The last change was no change at all, as in he abandoned his changeup... I'll walk myself out.

Leaving Washington for Detroit isn't going to help Zimmermann's chances either. Zimmermann has a career 3.55 road ERA (3.10 ERA at home) and is moving to a park with big alleys. Steamer projects a rough campaign ahead, with 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 148 K over 200 innings. Let someone else draft Zimmermann among the first 25 SP in your league.

 

Julio Teheran (ATL - SP)

2015 Statistics: 200.2 IP, 11 W, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 171 K, 20 QS

I spent a good deal of time supporting Teheran's struggles in 2015 with fellow Rotoballer Kyle Bishop. Unfortunately Teheran left me hanging until a strong September (1.62 ERA) but by then the battle was lost and if you owned Julio, likely so was your season.

Teheran had a season to forget, posting career highs in ERA and WHIP while posting mediocre win and strikeout totals. Most alarming were his walk (3.27 BB/9) and home run (1.21 HR/9) rate spiking to new highs.

It's key to remember Teheran will be just 25 as he enters his fourth full season in the majors. He's still learning how to pitch and experimenting with his arsenal. For starters he'd be better off just dumping his sinker. He threw it 19.25% of the time and hitters responded by hitting .313 with a .456 slugging percentage. The slider continued to be a strong pitch for him and he actually gained a tick on his fastball.

I'm not ready to write Teheran off, especially after his 1.62 ERA in September. While that WHIP is too high for standard leagues, keep in mind he averaged a 1.13 WHIP his first two full seasons. If he can limit the free passes he should be a strong rebound candidate. Things could change if Teheran gets traded this offseason from the rebuilding Braves but as things stand he's in a great division for pitchers. Now if only he could face his own team...

 

James Shields (SD - SP)

2015 Statistics: 202.1 IP, 13 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 216 K, 19 QS

Big Game James was a big disappointment in San Diego, failing to live up to the expectations that come along with a 5-year/$85M deal. He was ranked No. 22 among starting pitchers going into 2015 and finished at No. 59. To put that in perspective, the three names ahead of him were Jake Peavy, Edison Volquez, and Hector Santiago.

The biggest problem child for Shields was his control, or lack thereof. Even though his strikeout rate was a career high (9.60 K/9), his walk rate doubled from 1.74 BB/9 to 3.60 BB/9. This led to hitters sitting on Shields offering and we saw his HR/9 clip spike to 1.47. His numbers are eerily similar to his 2010 season, when he had a 5.18 ERA. Not a good sign.

While it's easy to see his fastball drop from 92.4 MPH to 91.0 MPH and use that as a scapegoat, it's his patented changeup that's letting him down. Hitters had a .203 ISO versus the changeup in 2015, a relatively high number that may indicate hitters were sitting on it. Check out his PITCHf/x scores on the changeup since 2011.

Shields will be 34 when Opening Day starts, and at this point you're paying for past production if you draft Shields within the top 30 pitchers. He's not the worst addition to a fantasy rotation; those 216 strikeouts were tied for ninth among pitchers. Just don't expect a bounceback to his 2013-2014 numbers with the Royals. Steamer's projected 3.69 ERA/1.24 WHIP sound about right for Big Game James.

 

Jeff Samardzija (CHW - SP)

2015 Statistics: 214 IP, 11 W, 4.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 163 K, 15 QS

I bet you were curious when The Shark would show up on this list. You don't just end up with a 4.96 ERA, you have to earn it.

To quote Charles Barkley, Samardzija was turrible for the White Sox in 2015. His 4.96 ERA was third-worst in all of baseball for qualified starters (he can thank Chris Tillman and Alfredo Simon) and he was one of only three pitchers to complete over 200 innings and have an ERA over 4.00 (Teheran, Colby Lewis).

Aside from the junky ERA, the strikeouts are what stand out with Samardzija. After back-to-back season of 200+ strikeouts, he failed to reach 165 in relatively the same amount of innings. One possible reasoning is his increased use of the slider; he threw it 19% more often this year but saw hitters swing and miss 30% less often. To further hammer the point home, hitters hit .294 versus the slider (.211 in '14) with a .474 SLG (.333 in '14).

To summarize that last paragraph in video form:

Samardzija is still a free agent at this point with no clear favorites to land his services. Zimmermann's deal with Detroit should open the flood gates, but until we know A) his ballpark and B) his pitching coach, it's tough to put a projection on Samardzija. If he goes back to throwing the gas, good things should be in store. There's nothing wrong with a late-round flier on Samardzija to see if he can rekindle his 2014 success, but if he's one of your top four starting pitchers, good luck.

 

Alex Wood (LAD - SP)

2015 Statistics: 189.2 IP, 12 W, 3.84 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 139 K, 17 QS

One of the more entertaining pitchers to observe, Wood wasn't able to turn his quirky delivery into useful fantasy numbers last year.

In just his second season as a full-time starter Wood saw a noticeable regression in his pitching line. His ERA and WHIP were up, his strikeout rate dropped and the walk rate rose. One of the key factors was the decrease in velocity he's experienced each year since entering the league. His fastball now sits at around 89 MPH, which is far from intimidating.

Wood sees much of his success derived from his sleight of hand delivery to the plate, but the signs are pointing towards hitters catching on to his gig. Hitters had an increased line drive rate versus Wood and had less swing-and-misses than in 2014. It's also difficult for pitchers with funky deliveries to stay healthy. Just ask Dontrelle Willis.

Wood is only 25 and still has time to adjust. Remember this will be only his third full-season starting. Learning under the tutelage of Clayton Kershaw should benefit his development, but the peripherals just aren't there to grab Wood in fantasy leagues. He strikes out too few batters to carry the above-average ERA and WHIP, and when you combine the injury risk with his delivery there's enough to avoid Wood on draft day.

 

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