July 29, 2016

Bill Dubiel and Nick Mariano compare Derek Carr and Eli Manning to declare which player is worth targeting as a better value fantasy football draft pick for 2016.

It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and RotoBaller is here to help. In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This article comes from RotoBaller lead columnists Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and Nick Mariano (@NMariano23). Bill will defend the young gunslinger Derek Carr while Nick extols the virtues of the beleaguered veteran Eli Manning. Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.

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Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - Bill Dubiel

Last year's QB13 is trending up in almost every way, and 2016 might just be the year he puts Raider Nation on his back and takes them to the playoffs. In just his second season in the NFL Carr posted a beyond strong 32:13 TD-INT ratio, threw for nearly 4,000 yards (3,987) and mustered a very respectable 91.1 passer rating. He's only 25 and still learning, which means those numbers will only improve. Eli, on the other hand, can't get a whole lot better than last year, when he posted the highest touchdown and second-highest yardage totals of his career. Anybody else remember that Eli is just two years removed from a 27-interception season? I remember it. I remember it so hard.

The big key for Carr in 2016 is the team around him. The Raiders made it their mission to improve on all fronts, perhaps most importantly on their offensive line. The big name in the offseason there was Kelechi Osemele, who should provide an anchor for what was already one of the top-graded lines in all of football by Pro Football Focus. It's clear that the Raiders intend to build around Carr, and protection is the most important tool an organization can provide to a young quarterback.

Let's move from protection to weapons. Sophomore Amari Cooper is still the big name, but Michael Crabtree was just as productive if not more so (85-922-9) in 2015. Crabtree is still just 28, so I see no reason why he can't be equally effective in 2016, and third option Seth Roberts proved he could make plays when called upon. Cooper, on the other hand, has a ton of room for growth. He dropped 10 passes (more, depending on your definition) over the course of 130 targets in 2015, which placed him third in the NFL. The dynamic wideout struggled with drops throughout his college career as well, so it is undoubtedly going to be his main focus in the preseason. If he cuts down on the drops and fine-tunes his route-running a bit, he could be the stud pass-catcher that every great QB seems to have. Steve Young-Jerry Rice, Peyton Manning-Marvin Harrison, Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski...Derek Carr-Amari Cooper. Someone get me the clay and gold paint, I'm making the Hall of Fame bust now.

I'm pretty sure Nick is going to mention strength of schedule (SoS)...ah, yep. There it is. While it's true that there are some tough matchups on there, the first month of the season is s-a-w-f-t SAWFT. Carr opens the season with the Saints, Falcons, Titans, Ravens and Chargers. Jeez, I'm salivating just thinking about all the room Cooper and Crabtree will have to run. I also don't buy into SoS a ton, and not just because it hurts my argument here. I swear.

Ultimately if you wait on quarterback (hint: you should) there are going to be a lot of similar options that fall into the same tier of production. Carr and Manning are two guys with virtually the same floor, but Carr has a much higher ceiling. He could very well be the Next Great Quarterback, and in 2016 he has the weapons and protection to take a big step in that direction.

Let's appeal to the youth to close it out..."CARRizard, I choose YOU!!!!"

Eli Manning (QB, NYG) - Nick Mariano

Eli Manning against Derek Carr? For real? Alright, let’s go to the stats. Manning threw for 4,436 yards (sixth-best in the NFL), with 35 TDs (tied for second-best in the NFL) and 14 picks (Carr had 13). That’s pretty darn good. Ugh, you need more than that? Let’s dive in then, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Manning and the New York Giants offense enters year-three of the Ben McAdoo offensive era, who is now Eli’s Head Coach. Manning looked more comfortable in the second year of the high-tempo West Coast attack despite having a patchwork O-line in front of him and no Victor Cruz in 2015. But he did what good leaders do, he made it work.

Throwing to one of the greatest WRs in Odell Beckham Jr. helps too, who somehow still has room to grow (scary, I know). Mix in second-round pick Sterling Shepard, a highly-touted route-runner who only dropped four balls out of 118 targets last season, and one instantly sees improvements from the Rueben Randle-experience. Manning also has one of the best pass-catching RBs in Shane Vereen, whose 59 catches were fifth-most among RBs.  Sprinkle in complementary options in WR Dwayne Harris and TEs Will Tye and Larry Donnell, and baby, you've got a stew goin'.

Let’s compare the QBs a bit more closely. While I’m sure the opposition will find stats to back their case, let us utilize Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt, one of the foremost metrics for determining overall offensive success for a QB. Manning posted a 6.74 ANY/A, 10^th in the NFL, while Carr’s 6.31 ANY/A was 19^th. Want some icing on the 2016 cake? Strength of schedule isn’t bulletproof, but the Giants have the third-best SoS for QBs while the Raiders check in at 26^th according to FantasyPros. One doesn’t need to heavily buy in to SoS to acknowledge the gigantic difference between these numbers. Eli doesn't have to face KC and DEN twice, which goes a long way.

Why would you choose to bank on a third-year quarterback who still needs to grow, who has a worse schedule, who plays with a run-happy coach in Jack Del Rio and a WR1 in Amari Cooper who also needs to improve (10 drops, second-worst in the NFL), when you can have dependable Eli less than a round earlier. Their most recent ADPs according to FantasyFootballCalculator are 8.06 for Manning and 9.04 for Carr, with Manning being an easy choice for this writer.

 
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