Welcome back to my potential fantasy football busts for Week 6 of the 2024 season!
There are disappointments and clear busts. Breece Hall is the perfect example. Fantasy managers are fed up with the Jets running back after back-to-back duds. He's the RB13 overall. Disappointing, especially given the draft capital, but not a bust (ala Mark Andrews).
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season. Let's get a bit spicier this week with the predictions. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) vs. Detroit
Rico Dowdle's inclusion in this article last week was a misfire. As predicted, the Cowboys gave the reins to the 26-year-old. I didn't expect career-high marks in carries (20) and rushing yards (87) while adding a score through the air.
One interesting note about his performance last week before we move on: Dowdle was given an attempt at the goal line, his first of the season. Ezekiel Elliott had the only previous running back carry inside the five for Dallas. Dowdle didn't follow his block, fumbled the ball, and Dak Prescott saved the day by jumping on it. We'll see if the Dallas coaches trust Elliott in that situation.
#NFLAfterDark pic.twitter.com/M7ROVW36QG
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) October 7, 2024
Those high-value touches will be vital against the Detroit run defense. Kenneth Walker III ruined the bell curve with three touchdowns in Week 4 and it still only dropped the Lions to third in fewest points allowed to running backs. Kyren Williams (2.8 YPC), Rachaad White (1.8), and James Conner (1.8) couldn't find any running room against the Lions front seven.
On the other end, the Lions have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Prescott and CeeDee Lamb aren't quite on the same page yet this season. This should be the time for head coach Mike McCarthy to dial up a large number of passing plays to get his star wideout and quarterback in sync.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS) at Baltimore
Two Brian Robinson Jr. rushing touchdowns saved the day for fantasy managers in Week 5. Dealing with a knee injury, Robinson saw his carries sliced in half (seven vs. 16.5 average in Weeks 1-4) and played just 34% of the snaps.
Robinson opened the week watching practice from a distance again. While he could be healthier than he was against Cleveland, Austin Ekeler could out-touch him. Jeremy McNichols was also involved in Week 5.
Still no RB Brian Robinson for the Commanders, but RB Austin Ekeler is back practicing full.
Also, the Commanders have cut QB Sam Hartman — a logical move with QB Marcus Mariota back. Hartman will probably end up on the practice squad. 👇 pic.twitter.com/29pHoo7NkI
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) October 10, 2024
All of that aside, say Robinson turns in a full day of practice on Friday and he's off the injury report. He'll look across the field and see the league's best rush defense in Baltimore. Running backs average 2.9 yards per carry against the Ravens.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) vs. Tampa Bay
It's obvious that Rashid Shaheed has improved as a well-rounded wide receiver, but his bread and butter is still the deep ball. Derek Carr has perfected hitting that connection with Shaheed. It's now Spencer Rattler's job.
Coaches tend to play it safe with an inexperienced quarterback under center. Rattler knows that as well. He told the media this week that he's going to have eyes for his WR1, Chris Olave.
Saints QB Spencer Rattler on WR Chris Olave:
“I make it a key point that when he’s in, get him the ball.”pic.twitter.com/vcIsjGyPh1
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 10, 2024
The Buccaneers aren't a good secondary, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Sportsbooks have set Rattler's touchdown line at 0.5. He's one of five quarterbacks with that line, alongside Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Aidan O'Connell, and Deshaun Watson. That's not a good list to be a part of. There's little faith in Rattler performing well, even against a poor pass defense.
Shaheed is also dealing with a hip injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday and limited him on Thursday.
Christian Kirk (WR, JAX) at Chicago*
*game played in London
The matchup against Chicago has already been discussed above. While the Bears aren't as stingy against wide receivers (seventh-fewest fantasy points) as they are against quarterbacks, it's still not one to attack.
There's another hurdle for Christian Kirk to clear to have a big game on Sunday morning. Evan Engram is nearing his return to the starting lineup. He hasn't played since a Week 2 hamstring injury in pregame warmups sidelined him.
Let's rewind to Weeks 1 and 2 when the Jaguars designed their game plan around an active Engram. Kirk caught one pass each game for 30 and -1 yards, respectively. The matchups aren't solely to blame. Miami and Cleveland allow about one fantasy point per game to slot receivers less than the Bears.
In half-PPR or standard leagues, Kirk doesn't have a high ceiling this week. Even in PPR formats, there should be some trepidation. Jalen Tolbert and Darnell Mooney, two receivers who could have been found on the waiver wire this week (Mooney to a lesser extent), should be started over Kirk.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ) vs. Buffalo
23 targets is just absurd. And yet, Wilson only secured 56.5% of those targets.
Not to take anything away from Wilson's WR5 performance in London, but there's still something fundamentally wrong with the New York offense. Taking play-calling duties away from offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett could be a good thing. There's also a chance that little changes with Todd Downing sending in the signals.
Todd Downings has been ac OC for 3 seasons (2017 OAK, 2021, 2022 TEN)
- Ranked 25th, 11th, 26th in points scored
- Ranked 30th, 1st, 11th in rush attempts
- Ranked 15, 25, 30 in passing attempts
- 16th is highest finish in pass yds/TDs
- Top 5 in rush yds/TDs in '21— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 10, 2024
Buffalo's defense hasn't let a wide receiver top 100 yards yet this season. Nico Collins would have been on his way had he not hurt his hamstring, however.
Given his low average depth of target, it will take a plethora of opportunities for Wilson to hit the century mark. With the bad matchup and inefficiency plaguing him, Wilson reverts to the middling WR2 instead of the WR1 he was drafted to be.
Mike Evans (WR, TB) at New Orleans
It's time for a history lesson, especially for those who haven't played fantasy football for a long time. Mike Evans and New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore have beef. The latter has gotten the better of Evans in their matchups. Evans has been ejected and suspended for fighting Lattimore during games.
#Bucs WR Mike Evans on the physical nature of playing the Saints and his battle with CB Marshon Lattimore.
“Long as, you know, it’s within the play,'' Evans said. "I’ve done a bad job in the past of making it go over the play when I shouldn’t have. But I’m more mature now and…— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) October 9, 2024
As for stats, Evans averages about five catches, 75 yards, and 0.62 touchdowns per game in his career. Against New Orleans, those numbers drop to 3.2 catches, 50.5 yards, and .26 touchdowns. There are four teams he averages fewer yards against. Three are AFC teams he rarely plays against.
Evans’ only triple-digit effort against the Saints came in Week 1 of the 2018 season. Don't expect another one this week. The Buccaneers are road favorites against a beat-up New Orleans offense starting fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler at quarterback. It's dropped the over/under to 41.5 points.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) vs. Cleveland
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are back in the lineup. That's great for Philadelphia sports fans (who don't have the Phillies to root for anymore). It's not great for Dallas Goedert.
AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson are all practicing today for the second straight day.
— Dave Zangaro (@DZangaroNBCS) October 10, 2024
With both receivers healthy in Week 1, Goedert caught four passes for 31 yards (TE12). Brown was out in Week 2 but Smith was active. Goedert snagged three receptions for 38 yards (TE16). It wasn't until both wideouts were sidelined when Goedert exploded (90 yards after Smith left with a concussion in Week 3). Goedert scored 13.2 PPR points in Week 4.
The Browns allow the sixth-fewest points per game to tight ends this season. They also play a lot of single-high safety coverage, which should benefit Brown.
Given the tight-end landscape (plus Travis Kelce on bye), it's unlikely fantasy managers have a better option. Goedert is a low-end TE1 with bust potential this week.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX) at Chicago Bears*
*game played in London
Trevor Lawrence returned to relevancy in Week 5 against Indianapolis with 371 yards, two touchdowns, and a QB10 finish. A quarterback should take advantage of a cupcake matchup, but that won't be the case in Week 6.
Lawrence draws the Chicago Bears, who allow the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. C.J. Stroud is the only opposing signal-caller to score double-digit fantasy points against Chicago. On average, quarterbacks average a hair over 7.5 points. Lawrence should only be started in two-quarterback or Superflex leagues.
Jaguars say their flight to London will be delayed because of Hurricane Miltonhttps://t.co/RlZ7ifjpNz
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) October 10, 2024
The Jaguars have a long journey to London (they play back-to-back games there) and Hurricane Milton prevented them from making that flight across the pond when they intended. They'll arrive in the United Kingdom on Friday afternoon instead of Friday morning.
Anthony Richardson (QB, IND) at Tennessee
This was originally intended to be Michael Pittman Jr. before a back injury landed the Colts WR1 on injured reserve. Then, Josh Downs missed two days of practice with a toe issue. Jonathan Taylor is also trending toward missing a second straight game. So let's go with the commander of the offense.
The Tennessee Titans have the best pass defense in football and it's not particularly close. Yes, they've played against Caleb Williams in his NFL debut, as well as Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis, and Tyler Huntley. Is Anthony Richardson a better passer than that quartet? Maybe some, definitely not others.
Head coach Shane Steichen stated that Richardson is the team's starting quarterback when he's healthy. He practiced in full on Thursday and appears to be on track to start.
Anthony Richardson does not look like he is nursing a bad hip. pic.twitter.com/tmeRjR3Ljz
— Kent Sterling (@KentSterling) October 10, 2024
That doesn't mean he should be started in fantasy football lineups, especially if his top offensive weapons aren't joining him on the field.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) at New York Jets
Let's begin with one of the league's best quarterbacks. Last week, Patrick Mahomes was in this spot and finished as the QB20. Josh Allen shouldn't finish that low but I am forecasting a below-average outing.
Allen struggled to complete a pass in Week 5 with Khalil Shakir (ankle) inactive. He targeted Dalton Kincaid and Mack Hollins most often (six apiece). He ended up completing nine of 30 pass attempts.
Josh Allen was hit 8 times on Sunday, the most times he has been hit in a game in his career.
The receivers are for sure an issue, but the OL has been a disaster for 2 consecutive weeks.
— Hänsel (@UberHansen) October 9, 2024
Shakir has yet to practice this week. Running back James Cook (toe) is also not practicing. Those two are the clear top weapons on the Buffalo offense. Allen could be riding the struggle bus again on Monday.
Even if Shakir and Cook are active, the matchup against the Jets is not good. Like last year, Sauce Gardner and Co. established themselves as a secondary that caps fantasy upside. Quarterbacks are averaging fewer than eight fantasy points per game this season.
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