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And just like that, we have arrived at championship week for the majority of fantasy football leagues. Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, and I for one want to forget that Week 16 ever happened (from a fantasy defense perspective).
No sugar-coating is necessary. It was a bad week for fantasy defenses. As the Christmas weekend progressed, with football spread out over four days, defense after defense underperformed. I had little time to stress about one of my top-ranked DSTs disappointing before the next one did.
It was so bad across the board that you did not lose out on many fantasy points based on which DST you chose, with a few obvious exceptions. So bad that I cannot help but include a chart in this intro section to show you how bad.
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Recapping Last Week: A Bad DST Week
You can see that the chart is filtered by each DST’s “Points Over Average” (POA) from lowest to highest. POA is how many fantasy points each DST scored above or below their season-long average. Even that metric alone is telling. Only 11 of 32 DSTs scored above their season-long PPG. But when you include matchup strength, it’s even more depressing.
I define a “positive” matchup to be against an opponent ranked from 17th to 32nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed, with a rank of 32nd being the most favorable matchup. Because of math, 16 teams have positive matchups every week. Only four DSTs with positive Week 16 matchups finished with a positive POA. 12 defenses in positive matchups scored fewer fantasy points than their season-long average. Only two defenses ranked in my Week 16 top-12 finished with a positive POA. The Jets had a positive POA, but only at +0.1. The Chiefs had a positive POA, and that is only by ESPN DST scoring settings, wherein the points allowed that were not surrendered by the defense (e.g. turnovers by the offense that are returned for TDs) do not count.
Outside of those two teams, the next highest POA by a top-12-ranked DST was -1.6 points (Browns). I have not done the research, but I assume a 25% hit rate of DSTs in positive matchups with a positive POA is the lowest of the season by far. I am not trying to make excuses, my Week 16 rankings ended up being bad based on the results. But, even with hindsight, there are not many realistic orders of rankings that would have been good.
There were exceptions to this negativity. The Raiders continued their hot streak by not only beating the Chiefs but also scoring two more defensive TDs (within seconds of each other) and finishing as the top-scoring unit for the second straight week. The Patriots flipped the script on one of my highest-ranked DSTs from Week 16 (Broncos), with a POA of +11 points in a dominating win in Denver. The Buccaneers took advantage of a struggling Jaguars offense by scoring 16 fantasy points (8.3 points above their season average).
The tricky part with DSTs, which inherently involves more variance and unpredictability week to week than fantasy skill position players, is figuring out which disappointing defenses to throw right back into the fire during championship week. And whether it’s your title game, the first week of a two-week title game, or your semi-final (no judgment but please don’t have your championship game in Week 18), the decisions this week are as crucial as they come. I will give you all of my effort in this article to help you pick the best DST.
How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but the top DST scorers from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters. If you started the Dolphins or Raiders in Week 15, you increased your chances of winning your matchup significantly.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG.
For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Cowboys’ DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Panthers’ DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Ravens’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Panthers’ DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Over Average (POA) allowed is -7. Team B’s POA allowed is +4. I assign weight to POA, which is factored into the overall rank.
Along with season-long POA allowed, my formula for adjusted fantasy points allowed also factors in POA allowed over each team’s last five and last three games. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
Cleveland Browns DST vs. NYJ
Yahoo Rostership: 84%
Vegas Odds: CLE favored by 7
Over/Under (Total Points): 35.5
Implied points against: 14.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 29th
This is a DST and matchup a lot of fantasy managers have been targeting, if fortunate enough to still be in the running in Week 17. The Browns get a top-five favorable matchup at home against the Jets during championship week. It is one of the best defenses in the NFL in one of the best matchups, so I’m not overthinking this one.
The Browns’ DST was cruising in Week 16 until they fell victim to a not-uncommon outcome for an NFL team with a huge lead. Garbage time. Of course, the Browns don’t care about how many fantasy points their DST scores, and while no NFL team intends to allow points regardless of the score, they still crushed the Texans. Their DST was in double-digits thanks to three sacks and two interceptions, but a few garbage time scores by the Texans took their “points allowed” score down to zero. It was a classic example of an NFL team dominating another team defensively, but it not translating into a big fantasy day for the DST.
The Browns are back at home in Week 17, and while the Jets' offense scored 30 points in Week 16, it was against the hapless Commanders' defense. Before Week 16, the Jets had allowed an average of 18.6 fantasy PPG to DSTs over the previous five games. The Jets’ implied total of 14.3 points is the lowest of the week. The Browns are the clear DST1 in Week 17.
Just a reminder that the Cleveland Browns are the only team that has beat both the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. pic.twitter.com/Ne3PzVvp34
— Nick Karns (@karnsies817) December 26, 2023
San Francisco 49ers DST @WAS
Yahoo Rostership: 98%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 13.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 48.5
Implied points against: 17.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 30th
The 49ers are an example of a defense that stumbled and disappointed in Week 16 that I am confidently firing back up this week. There is not a lot to this one. San Francisco faced the fifth-ranked Ravens in Week 16 and is up against the third-most favorable matchup in the Commanders in Week 17. They’re at home again, coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on Christmas Day in prime time. Their stranglehold on the number one seed in the NFC took a hit with the loss and wins by the Eagles and Lions, but they still control their own destiny for the first-round playoff bye.
The last two DSTs to face the Commanders turned in disappointing fantasy scores, with the Rams' DST scoring five points in Week 15 and the Jets' DST scoring only eight points in Week 16. But, Washington’s POA allowed is +4.1 PPG on the season and +5 PPG over the last five games. Start the 49ers DST with confidence in your title game.
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
Las Vegas Raiders DST @IND
Yahoo Rostership: 13%
Vegas Odds: IND favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 43.5
Implied points against: 23.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 16th
I am going against the betting odds here and riding the hottest DST hand in the NFL right now. Typically, I would not be ranking a road underdog with implied points against above 23 this highly, but I think the odds are wrong on this one. The wrong team is favored in this game. The Raiders have been a different team since Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach, and their defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, has taken the defense from 26th in points allowed in 2022 to eighth through 16 weeks in 2023.
The Raiders have been the top-scoring DSTs for two straight weeks, and what they were able to accomplish against Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City has this unit in must-start territory unless in an extremely negative matchup. The Colts have a negative POA allowed on the season (-0.5 PPG), but their offense has sputtered as of late, with a positive POA allowed in two of the last three games, including a POA allowed of +5.9 points to the Falcons in Week 16. The Colts are a slightly positive matchup, which is enough for me to pin my DST hopes on the Raiders in Week 17.
While everyone is talking about the Raiders pass rush…
Nate Hobbs had the play of the game yesterday. Huge 4th down stop in the redzone.
Textbook coverage for the PBU. #RaiderNation
— CJ (@RaiderSiege) December 27, 2023
Baltimore Ravens DST vs. MIA
Yahoo Rostership: 81%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by -3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 47
Implied points against: 21.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 4th
Also atypical is ranking a DST in the top five that has an opponent among the top five toughest matchups. I watched every second of the Ravens’ dismantling of the then-toughest DST matchup (49ers) on the road on Christmas Day and there could not be a bigger and more pivotal AFC game than the Ravens and Dolphins this week. Both teams currently control their own destiny in pursuit of the number one seed in the AFC.
The Dolphins need to beat the Ravens and then either win their final game against the Bills or have the Ravens lose again in Week 18 to secure the top seed. For the Ravens, all they need to do is beat the Dolphins this week to set up two weeks of rest (if they choose to rest starters in Week 18). With what is at stake, the crowd in Baltimore will be frenzied, and the Dolphins have shown a weakness against their better opponents this season.
Miami’s POA allowed has been negative no matter how you look at it, but this high ranking of the Ravens is not as rooted in the historical data as the majority of my rankings are. It is a potential AFC Championship Game preview at home for the Ravens, and it’s more of a qualitative take that the Ravens will harness that atmosphere (and experience in these situations) to have a game like they did in San Francisco.
Ravens defense turned the MVP favorite into Nick Mullens in less than three quarters pic.twitter.com/XRM8vaNjQb
— 🍑 is trying his best (@msupeach) December 26, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs DST vs. CIN
Yahoo Rostership: 90%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 7
Over/Under (Total Points): 44.5
Implied points against: 18.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 21st
The Chiefs were one of the only DSTs in my Week 16 top-12 that did not score below their season-long PPG average. They caught a white-hot Raiders team that has gone from playing for pride to being in the playoff hunt. Lost in the mix of their home loss is the fact that their defense played a stellar game. The Raiders offense did not score a TD. Zamir White did run all over them with 145 rushing yards, but Aidan O'Connell completed just nine of 21 passes for 62 passing yards. The Raiders’ defense is the only reason they won that game.
The Chiefs get a matchup in Week 17 against the 21st-ranked Bengals. The Bengals just allowed the Steelers’ DST to score 5.6 fantasy points above Pittsburgh’s PPG average. Yes, Ja'Marr Chase did not play in that game and still might play in Week 17. As of this writing, the Bengals have not released an injury update for Chase other than that he is “day-to-day.” If Chase plays, the Chiefs might drop one or two spots in my rankings, but they would still be a solid start at home against Jake Browning.
Kudos to the Chiefs defense for allowing 57 yards in the 2nd half of the Pats game last week & not allowing a completion in 3 QUARTERS on Christmas! I know a lot of attention is on our struggling offense but
This is a Super Bowl championship defense in KC #ChiefsKingdom
— Jeremy Davisson (@JtotheEtotheR) December 27, 2023
Houston Texans DST vs. TEN
Yahoo Rostership: 39%
Vegas Odds: HOU favored by 3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 19.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 28th
The Texans were one of the many disappointing DSTs in Week 16, scoring 4.7 fewer fantasy points than their PPG average. They were missing a key piece of their defensive unit with rookie sensation Will Anderson Jr. missing his second straight game with an ankle injury. Anderson Jr.’s status is unknown for Week 17, but with the Texans in a crowded playoff hunt, I assume they’ll do what they can to get Anderson Jr. on the field.
Either way, the Texans are a strong play this week with an advantageous matchup with the 28th-ranked Titans. The Titans have allowed an average of five sacks per game over the last four games, including at least six in three of those four. The Texans, without Anderson Jr., registered seven sacks against the Texans only two weeks ago (in Tennessee).
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
Buffalo Bills DST vs. NE
Yahoo Rostership: 93%
Vegas Odds: BUF favored by 11.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 14.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 27th
I was overzealous with my ranking of the Bills’ DST at the top of the list in Week 16. I was slightly blinded by what the Raiders did to the Chargers and what the Bills did to the Cowboys in Week 15. The Bills were on the road and the Chargers had another week to get QB Easton Stick more acclimated to the offense. I still think ranking the Bills as a solid start last week was the right process, but number one overall was too high.
That being said, the Bills are a team I’m comfortable rolling back out there against the 27th-ranked Patriots in Week 17. They are back at home and have played their way back into the running for the AFC East crown. They have to win out, so if the Bills win this week and the Dolphins lose to the Ravens, then the Bills-Dolphins Week 18 showdown will be for the division.
There is some risk with the Bills this week. New England has a negative POA allowed over the last three games since their shutout loss to the Chargers in Week 13. Bailey Zappe has been playing well since taking over for Mac Jones, with six passing TDs to only two interceptions and over 200 passing yards per game in that three-game span.
The Patriots did score 29 points on the Bills the last time they played, holding Buffalo’s DST to only two fantasy points. But the Bills' defense is playing much better than they were at that time and should be able to turn in a worthwhile fantasy score at home with a potential home playoff game on the line.
I'm getting a lot of comments on my DST rankings that the "Bills defense looked lost," so it feels like it's worth pointing out that the Bills had 5 sacks and allowed 270 yards of total offense on Saturday. Plus BUF already lost to NE. They won't come out lazy this weekend
— Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) December 26, 2023
Denver Broncos DST vs. LAC
Yahoo Rostership: 83%
Vegas Odds: DEN favored by 5.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 16.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 25th
The Broncos get the Chargers in another home game in Week 17. One of the biggest disappointments of Week 16, Denver fits more in the “boom or bust” category of starting options this week, depending on which Chargers offense shows up. Was the team’s (and Easton Stick’s) marked improvement against the Bills in Week 16 the new norm, with playing the spoiler being enough motivation to take out the Broncos on the road? The sample size is just too small at this point.
I expect a better effort in Week 17 from this unit as the Broncos cling to hope of a playoff berth. Entering Week 17, the Broncos (7-8) are technically the 12th seed, but are only one game back of the Colts (8-7), who hold the seventh and final playoff spot. From the seventh to the 12th seed, there are four teams at an 8-7 record and two teams (Broncos and Raiders) sitting at 7-8. I am not going to dive into the different playoff scenarios for this logjam, but the important detail is this is a must-win game for the Broncos to stay in that race.
Chicago Bears DST vs. ATL
Yahoo Rostership: 33%
Vegas Odds: CHI favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 17.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 19th
I am not sure I have ever rooted for a DST to smash more than I did with the Bears in Week 16. Not because I needed to be right, but because I was one of the highest on them in the industry and wanted the call to work out for all the people I advised going with Chicago’s defense.
It did not work out. The Bears did hold the Cardinals to 16 points, but had only two sacks and failed to force any turnovers. The Cardinals have been gradually moving up the matchup strength rankings in the second half of the season, and for the first time all season, are no longer a positive DST matchup. Kyler Murray has not been stellar, but he has been playing well enough to limit opposing DSTs since his return.
I have tempered my expectations a bit in Week 17, but I still have them as a solid option at home against the 19th-ranked Falcons. This game has one of the lower over-under totals of the week at only 37.5 total points, with the Falcons’ implied points just a hair above 17. The Falcons do have a negative POA allowed over the last three games and the last five games. So, while they are technically a positive matchup (ranked between 17th and 32nd), they have not been as favorable over the second half of the season, which is why I have the Bears in Tier 3 this week.
New York Jets DST @CLE
Yahoo Rostership: 84%
Vegas Odds: CLE favored by 7
Over/Under (Total Points): 35.5
Implied points against: 21.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 22nd
One of few underdogs in my top-12, I still like the Jets facing Joe Flacco and the Browns on a short week. Flacco and Amari Cooper torched the Texans in Week 16, but the Jets are a significantly stronger pass defense, ranking as the toughest matchup for both fantasy QBs and fantasy WRs. The short week should favor the defenses in this game, as indicated by the 35.5-point over-under, which is the lowest of Week 17. Even with the big fantasy day by Flacco in Week 16, he has thrown five interceptions over the last two games against the Texans and Bears.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST vs. NO
Yahoo Rostership: 35%
Vegas Odds: TB favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 42
Implied points against: 19.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 12th
The Buccaneers were one of the few DST bright spots in Week 16, scoring 16 fantasy points against the Jaguars after forcing four turnovers and allowing only 12 points. On the season, the Saints have been a negative DST matchup pretty much across the board. The Buccaneers did have the highest fantasy scoring game against them, holding the Saints to only nine points in Week 4. Being a home favorite with implied points against below 20 is positive, and this is another team playing at home, clinging to a one-game division lead over their Week 17 opponent. A Buccaneers win plus a Falcons loss would lock up the division title for Tampa Bay, and I expect they come out swinging against their division rival.
Jacksonville Jaguars DST vs. CAR
Yahoo Rostership: 41%
Vegas Odds: JAX favored by 7
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 15.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 32nd
The Jaguars sneak into Tier 3 mostly based on their matchup with the 32nd-ranked Panthers at home. Jacksonville somehow still sits atop the division no one wants to win (AFC South) and is another team that controls its own destiny to secure a division title and at least one home playoff game. The Panthers’ implied total of 15.8 points is the third-lowest on the week after the Jets and Patriots.
I wish there was more incentive to rank the Jaguars’ DST higher in this juicy matchup, but they have averaged only 3.8 fantasy PPG over the last five games. However, each of those five games was a negative DST matchup. In the eight games before their bye, with a higher proportion of positive DST matchups, the Jaguars averaged 9.1 fantasy PPG. Jacksonville is another “boom or bust” option for Week 17.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams. My favorite Tier 4 DSTs are the Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, and Falcons. I also like the Cowboys as they play much better at home, but the Lions’ offense has been rolling lately. Even with what the Cowboys’ DST has done for much of the season, they are a risky play in Week 17.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 17 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 17.
Week 18 Preliminary Rankings
For those with championships or meaningful consolation games in Week 18, presenting the remaining schedule as I have throughout the season is not helpful with only Weeks 17 and 18 remaining. Instead, I created preliminary DST rankings for Week 18. The matchup strength and Yahoo rostership are the same as for Week 17.
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 17
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 17, here is the full list of ranks for this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 17 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
There will be one more installment of this article series in Week 18 to cover you through the official end of the NFL regular season.
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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