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When it comes to potential fantasy football league-winners, it’s easy to pinpoint Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson. They represent shoo-in candidates to lead running backs in fantasy scoring in 2023, if healthy.
The most valuable fantasy assets can also be those that are picked a bit later in drafts. There are plenty of commodities outside of the top tier that carry the upside to pace their position in points and perhaps provide a more efficient return on investment, considering their draft cost.
For instance, Josh Jacobs, a 2022 mid-round fantasy choice, was found on over 61% of the top-500 Public League teams on Yahoo after closing as the overall RB3 in PPR leagues last season. Even though he trailed Ekeler and McCaffrey, that tidbit arguably made Jacobs the fantasy MVP based on ADP. The goal of this article is to not delineate the obvious overall RB1 possibilities, but perhaps find a player that ends as a top-shelf option despite a less expensive price tag.
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2023 Fantasy Football League Winner: Alexander Mattison
I'm sure some are ready to scoff at the notion of a perennial backup RB transforming into a potential league-winner overnight. However, I’ve remained vehemently above consensus throughout the offseason on Minnesota's new presumed workhorse, Alexander Mattison. Out of all the early-to-mid-round fantasy options, Mattison is easily my most frequently drafted RB in this range this summer.
When the Vikings officially released Dalvin Cook in early June, one would have assumed a Mattison hype machine generated by default. Yet, much of the fantasy community seems to have gone the other way more than I had imagined; Mattison’s sudden surge in value has resulted in him becoming a suddenly polarizing '23 fantasy prospect.
Remember when we were drafting Mattison last year as a late-round sleeper with hopes he would carve out a standalone role? Well, Minnesota never turned to a committee approach even with Cook starting to show signs of decline. So why should we expect them to adopt one with him now out of the shuffle and a bell-cow tailback in Mattison entering the prime of his career?
Mattison appears to have developed into quite a popular fade among those who have proclaimed the 25-year-old to be the poster boy of the "dead zone" phenomenon this summer. That widespread school of thought has allowed fantasy managers to consistently snag Mattison in Round 5 of drafts, which could be a screaming bargain when taking a deep dive into the stats that may matter more than others.
What Does Alexander Mattison Bring To The Table In '23?
What’s the most important attribute a fantasy RB can possess that is conducive to fantasy success? If you answered something along the lines of “volume” or “opportunity”, then you’d be correct! "Volume is king" you may have heard before, and Mattison projects for gobs of that this season. In fact, the fifth-year back certainly has a chance to pace his position in opportunity share, or perhaps even snap share, when you acknowledge Minny's current lack of backfield alternatives. Cook was top five in both of these metrics in 2022.
Mattison has rumbled for 693 total yards on 117 rushing attempts and 23 receptions with five touchdowns in six games as a starter sans Cook in his career. That checks out as 19.5 carries for 79.5 rushing yards and 3.8 catches for 36 yards receiving per game. You’ve probably heard that drumbeat numerous times already this offseason, so let’s be sensible about it.
Can we reasonably extrapolate these numbers over a 17-game period and expect Mattison to replicate those averages in ‘23? We definitely should not expect the receiving efficiency to sustain, but the rushing volume is absolutely a plausible carry-over. After all, Mattison inherits a role that afforded Cook 17.8 touches per game last season.
Let’s trace back for a moment and debunk that dead-zone argument. Mattison seems to be getting knocked down a peg for his -- admittedly -- clear lack of explosiveness that he otherwise showcased earlier in his career. We're not drafting the power runner expecting tons of explosive runs and slate-breaking performances; we’re coveting Mattison's forecasted workload, which isn’t as fragile as one may think. Yes, Ty Chandler is more dynamic, but his lack of a more well-rounded skill set renders him as nothing more than a change-of-pace back.
Mattison registered 0.96 fantasy points per opportunity a year ago, which was 13th among RBs. I’ll hang my hat on that as reasoning to oppose his perceived lack of efficiency. The former third-round pick is in line to receive high-value backfield touches in what we believe should be a prolific Vikings offense (Cook saw 48 red zone touches in '22). Mattison is being mistakenly treated as a "trap" pick when he should be regarded as a poor man’s hero/anchor RB with a top-notch RB1 finish in his range of potential outcomes.
Could Things Go Awry For Alexander Mattison In '23?
We'd be remiss to not acknowledge a currently three-fold proviso named Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt. As it stands, the Vikes haven't been linked to two of the available ball carriers in Taylor or Fournette, but Hunt has worked out for them.
While the potential addition of Hunt would undeniably put a damper on Mattison’s receiving usage, it wouldn’t leave his value in utter ruins. If Mattison comes away unscathed from the falling RB dominoes by Week 1, his RB1 status will likely remain intact.
Ultimately, this looks like a situation that some of us may have tried too hard to poke holes into despite the answer appearing right in front of us. Mattison signifies a dark-horse bet to lead the NFL in rushing yards or rushing touchdowns as a bruiser back who won’t regularly come off the field in passing scenarios on a pass-heavy squad.
If we choose three wide receivers with top-12 upside to start our draft, Mattison is readily available in Round 4 (and sometimes Round 5) before the top of the true dead-zone area begins with names like Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Breece Hall.
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