What’s even more fun than making bold predictions? Looking back at the end of the season to see how good (or so, so hilariously bad) they were.

It's my turn to determine if my preseason picks make me a Champ or a Chump. I was terrible this year, so the answer is the latter.

Let's take a look at how awry these predictions were.

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Rick Lucks' Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Chris Sale will finish with an ERA over 4.00

Yep, one of the worst calls is right here in the leadoff slot. My Sale pessimism was rooted in his declining K% (32.1% in 2015, 25.7% in 2016) that seemed to be the result of lower fastball velocity (94.5 mph to 93). He managed to reverse both trends in 2017, getting his fastball back (95 mph) and more Ks than ever before (36.2% K%). I was also concerned that Sale would not get the support in Boston that most were expecting, and he didn't (92 wRC+ as a team). He just had one of those magical seasons where team support is largely irrelevant. At least Corey Kluber is likely to beat him out for the Cy Young.

Verdict: F-

 

2. 2016's HR/FB will prove to be a blip as it regresses toward its historical norm

If anything on this list is worse than the Sale prediction, it's this one. Not only was 2017's league-wide HR/FB (13.7%) not closer to its historical norm, it was even higher than 2016's mark! This HR surge is legitimate, changing the way owners need to approach their drafts in 2018.

Verdict: F-

 

3. The Angels will win the AL West

The Angels were the last team eliminated from the AL Wild Card race, so I almost got partial credit here. Sadly I didn't, and the players I mentioned by name contributed almost nothing in fantasy this year. Both Cameron Maybin and Danny Espinosa finished the year in different uniforms, with Espinosa contributing -1 DRS at second base after I said he would form a BABIP-suppressing tandem with SS Andrelton Simmons. I projected Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs as the primary beneficiaries of this defense, and both missed significant time due to injury. Worst of all, I concluded the original analysis by throwing shade at the Astros. For the record, I still don't trust Carlos Correa or Dallas Keuchel.

Verdict: F

 

4. RA Dickey returns to fantasy relevance with a sub-3.50 ERA

Dickey finished with a 4.26 ERA. Atlanta's new park allowed nearly as many homers as his previous address (19 of Dickey's 26 HR came at home), preventing him from realizing the gains I thought he would in his return to the NL. His K% dropped (17.3% to 16.7%) and his wins held constant at 10, so Dickey's other statistics weren't great either. He was streamable at times thanks to the general collapse by mound men this year, but he fell well short of meeting this lofty prediction.

Verdict: D

 

5. Roman Quinn steals at least 40 bases

There was a lot to like in Quinn's profile before the season started, as he flashed the eye (20.3% chase rate) and GB% (56.8%) to get on base and start stealing (41-for-51 on SB attempts) in 2016. Sadly, a UCL injury to his left elbow limited him to just 197 PAs at Triple-A over the entirety of the 2017 season. At least it wasn't to his leg?

Verdict: F

 

6. The Colorado Rockies will finish top-15 in ERA

Colorado qualified for postseason play as I thought they would, but they were only 17th in ERA (4.51) in the process. Once again, the players I cited in the original analysis were much more problem than solution. Jon Gray and Chad Bettis missed significant time on the disabled list, and Tyler Anderson got lit up (4.81 ERA) despite solid peripherals (3.95 xFIP). Adam Ottavino was a disaster in the bullpen (5.06 ERA), and closer Greg Holland had a brutal second half (6.38 ERA). In retrospect, it's amazing that this was as close as it was considering everything that went wrong.

Verdict: C-

 

7. Travis Jankowski will steal at least 50 bases

Remember that Roman Quinn prediction? This was basically the same. Jankowski hit plenty of grounders (58.4% GB%) with a reasonable eye (22.1% chase rate) in 2016, making it logical to assume that he could reach base and steal at the MLB level. A right foot fracture limited him to 266 PAs in 2017, only 87 of which happened at the MLB level. The nature of his injury also makes you wonder whether the speed is coming back in the future, though his 13 steals in limited action across all levels is somewhat encouraging.

Verdict: F

 

8. Ryan Braun fails to hit 20 homers

I actually got one right! Braun's .305/.365/.538 line with 30 HR in 2016 screamed unsustainable, but he was largely drafted as though he was a lock to repeat it. His 25.1% FB% in 2016 was in slap hitter territory, but a ridiculous 28.8% HR/FB masked the issue. It fell to 17.3% in 2017, a rate that his slightly better FB% (31.9%) could not salvage from a fantasy perspective. A calf injury cost him a month of the season, but his .268/.336/.487 line with 17 big flies wasn't great even when he was on the field. Braun is a late round flyer at best next year.

Verdict: A

 

9. Cuban OF Yoelkis Cespedes will defect to the United States

This did not happen, and I'm not sure what else I can say about it. The younger Cespedes has a ton of raw ability, so it's still likely he ends up in the majors eventually.

Verdict: F-

 

10. Hector Neris is the best RP in fantasy

Neris seemed intriguing based on his 2.58 ERA, 31.1% K%, and 80 1/3 IP in 2016, especially since there wasn't a lot in front of him in Philadelphia's bullpen. He got the job early, recording his first save on April 20. Unfortunately, the Phillies provided him with few opportunities (26 saves total) and his 3.01 ERA and 26.9% K% were far from elite. Neris was not the best closer in the game. He was a viable one though, so you're probably not too angry with me if you drafted him late.

Verdict: B

Overall, I was probably a little too bold this year. Statcast seems ideally suited to this sort of exercise, so I'll incorporate it to significantly improve upon my .100 batting average next season.