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Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku put together arguably his strongest season in 2022. The sixth-year pass catcher posted a career-high 58 receptions (80 targets) for 628 yards and four receiving touchdowns over 14 games last year. Njoku also logged the highest catch rate (72.5%) of his career on the heels of netting a considerable four-year contract extension in the offseason prior.
The 2017 first-round pick entered the league as a rookie carrying freak athleticism, best compared to Travis Kelce on PlayerProfiler based on workout metrics. But Njoku has only finished in the conversation of top-10 fantasy TEs in two of his six career seasons. He's certainly been hindered by a fair share of quarterback turnover, a run-centric offense, and injuries.
With the Browns' offense looking as scary as ever, what are some factors that could contribute to a 2023 Njoku breakout? Let’s see what we’re looking for.
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Why Hasn't David Njoku Broken Out Already?
It serves Njoku's lack of career prosperity justice to rattle off some of the names he has caught passes from throughout his career. DeShone Kizer, Baker Mayfield, and Jacoby Brissett represent the bulk of them -- not exactly a star-studded cast of signal-callers. Early on in his career, Njoku supplanted Seth DeValve as Cleveland's featured TE to start 2018. He immediately formed a connection with Mayfield, a rookie at the time, once he was inserted under center that season.
Njoku put forth an overall TE10 finish in PPR fantasy leagues that year to get the hype train on the rails. Just when it seemed like he was in for a big third-year leap, Njoku's 2019 breakout hopes were dashed by a Week 2 wrist fracture that cost him 10 games. He submitted two fairly nondescript seasons in the subsequent two years, but his fortunes turned around at times in his most recent campaign.
How Did David Njoku's 2022 Season Unfold?
Fast forward to '22, and Njoku laid a one-catch egg to open the campaign, swiftly becoming a popular fantasy redraft drop candidate. However, forward-thinking managers may have stood the course with the gifted playmaker after Njoku encouragingly logged 89% of the team’s offensive snaps in that one.
Njoku handsomely repaid those patient managers, quickly putting that no-show behind him. He seemingly evolved into an every-week TE1 with 5.5 catches and 68.5 receiving yards per game across six games from Weeks 2 to 7. That came before a high-ankle sprain would stunt his perceived growth and cost Njoku the following two games. This setback occurred right around the time that the Miami product began a bit of a statistical drop-off.
Deshaun Watson's return from an 11-game suspension did not bode well for Njoku, or anyone for that matter, within the Browns offense. Njoku’s ‘22 numbers were not pretty with Watson, as he caught 17 balls for 164 yards and two touchdowns in total over his last five contests of the year. Optimists are hoping that Watson looks more comfortable in the pocket in his second year in Kevin Stefanski's system after such a long layoff from the field.
Three touchdowns would salvage an otherwise weak second half for Njoku, which seemed to go hand in hand with Watson’s return. Njoku still regularly occupied 90% of the team’s offensive snaps down the stretch. It was enough for a career-high 84% snap share, which was seventh among TEs. That number alone might be promising enough to justify the 27-year-old as an upside late-round pick in fantasy drafts with an early 10th-round ADP (91.1).
While Njoku’s aDOT was a meager 6.8, he managed eight total deep targets (eighth among TEs). The vertical threat also commanded 20 red zone targets despite missing three outings, trailing only Kelce. That might very well be the strongest source of optimism for our potential 2023 breakout scenario. Njoku also received the fifth-highest PFF offensive grade, with a very impressive 5.9 yards after catch per reception and 1.55 yards per route run.
Can David Njoku Finally Experience A Full-On Breakout?
There seems to be a fairly large gap between Tier 3 and 4 fantasy TEs based on ADP this summer. Njoku belongs near the end of that third tier, with the likes of Darren Waller, Evan Engram, and Pat Freiermuth as viable Week 1 starting options. At a position that is almost entirely touchdown-dependent, Njoku may be talented enough to overcome a potential lack of scoring with yardage. However, his red zone role since '21 implies Njoku should perhaps be considered a dark horse to lead his position in touchdowns.
The Browns feature a run-first attack with Nick Chubb and have quite a bit of target competition in the receiving game. Although, it remains relatively wide open beyond Amari Cooper with fairly unproven weapons in Donovan Peoples-Jones, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman. 2019 John Mackey Award winner Harrison Bryant has yet to witness his college dominance translate to the pros. Consider Njoku a legitimate threat to finish second in team targets behind Cooper.
Cleveland’s top-tier offensive line, coupled with Watson’s scrambling ability, should open up Njoku’s fantasy ceiling for the big plays he’s capable of. That’s not to mention Watson is bound to provide the strongest QB play of Njoku’s career thus far. Njoku constitutes a prime late-round target as a borderline top-10 option if you miss out on the elite tight ends earlier in your draft. David Njoku should be assertively selected ahead of names such as Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith Jr., and Gerald Everett.
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